ilmscore | Trump’s Extremely Dangerous Tariff Game

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
Current US tariff policies will persist despite short-term economic pain, aiming for long-term economic gain.
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent has also indicated that there is no backing down. This is the plan and they're sticking with it. They are willing to vulker themselves, aka take that short-term pain for long-term gain."
US Economic Policy
Pending
The current global trade actions are not temporary negotiation tactics but signify the beginning of a new global financial order.
"it's not some kind of short-term negotiation tactic, although deals will be made, but actually more like the beginning of a new financial order."
Global Financial System
Pending
The US economy will undergo reindustrialization, with a shift in focus from Wall Street to Main Street, and boosting stock portfolios will be a secondary priority for a period.
"He said this is the beginning of a process and that we are going to reindustrialize. He talks about making things about economic security. And here's a key point for you. He also says Wall Street has done great. It can continue doing well, but its main streets turn. Sounds pretty clear. The priority right now is not to pump anyone's stock portfolio. That'll come later."
US Industrial Policy
Pending
A grand global economic reordering, comparable to a new Bretton Woods moment, is expected within the next few years (from June 2024).
"Bent said this at the Manhattan Institute. He said, 'I could see in the next few years that we are going to have some kind of grand global economic reordering, something the equivalent of a new Breton Woods moment...' "
Global Economic Order
Pending
The Trump administration and Federal Reserve will eventually pivot towards pro-growth policies to prevent a severe recession or depression, ensuring their political agenda remains viable.
"Trump may not be prioritizing the markets, but when it comes down to it, he can't screw them up for too long or too badly either... the Trump team and Fed have many degrees of freedom to pivot toward progrowth policies and all the stuff they want to pull off for the bottom half of the country doesn't work if they cause a giant recession, great depression."
US Economic Policy
Pending
The global economy is undergoing the biggest shift in decades, moving away from globalization and free trade, leading to a major shakeup of the global order.
"Howard Marks, who said in a Bloomberg interview that what's occurring is probably the biggest change of his entire career as it's a shift away from globalization and free trade and a major shakeup of the total global world order."
Globalization
Pending
Globalization has ended, and the world has entered a new era.
"British Prime Minister Kier Starmer... also came out and stated that the world has changed. Globalization is over and we are now in a new era."
Globalization
Pending
Traditional economic models and historical patterns will become less reliable for future predictions due to the ongoing global changes.
"Old anchors, old patterns mean revisions may not be as reliable as you'd like them to be."
Economic Analysis
Pending