INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (People care about it now)
Published: 2024-08-08
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-08
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
An economic downturn is expected to be short-lived, lasting 3 to 9 months at most, unless severe signs like widespread bankruptcy, job losses, extreme dollar strengthening, or real deflation emerge, which could lead to a depression.
"I'm really expecting something shortlived 3 months 6 months 9 months Max you know anything a little longer than that and if you know one problem leads to another that's where it turns into something bad or if the dollar goes through an extreme strengthening and we get deflation like real deflation then again deflation equals depression in my mind"
Pending
Current geopolitical conflicts will not cause market volatility unless new wars begin or existing conflicts conclude.
"I don't think we're going to get War volatility unless we start a new one or the war ends but for now I I I just don't even think any of that stuff is going to move us"
Pending
The market will experience significant 'pops and drops' throughout August 2024, with daily swings of approximately 2-4%, until new economic data and Jerome Powell's statements are released.
"I think all month is going to be pops and drops I think we're going to move like I said 2% down 3% up 3% down 3 and 1 half% Up 3 and 1 half% down half a percent up 2% down 4% up and then play that game pretty much until we get the data and Powell cuz we only have one month until pow now and then again CPI next week and then give that a couple more weeks and before you know it we're ending the month"
Pending
If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, she is predicted to maintain a low public profile, with vague communication from her administration for the next four years.
"I feel like if camela wins she's gonna hide like does that make sense I don't think we're going to see her like even like Biden even though she's not 97 years old and clearly is dying like you know what I'm saying I still I still feel like we're barely like we ain't going to hear [ __ ] and we going to have Karin or a replacement be hella vague with us for the next four years we might see her at like like hand shakings and [ __ ] but I don't know I don't know"
Pending
If Donald Trump wins the presidency, he will initiate the largest mass deportation campaign in US history.
"I see where some people don't like Trump because he did say he's going to start the largest deportation campaign he was pretty explicit about that I've never heard him say that so that's kind now I'm like okay I get it now I see where the disdain is"
Pending
If Donald Trump wins the presidency, he will pursue policies to legalize marijuana, leaving regulation up to the states, which is expected to impact marijuana stocks.
"but that weed stocks are going insane I can't believe it moved like that I don't know why it moved like that I mean I just kept this up here but that went and like crazy that was just from him again he did say a lot of stuff about legalizing it that's why that's crazy I put it up there but I did not expect an 11% move"
Pending
Tomorrow (August 9, 2024) will be a 'painfully dry' news day with minimal significant economic data, with market discussions likely dominated by speculation about ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
"tomorrow is going to be painfully dry so not only is tomorrow going to be painfully dry I mean I think yeah again unless it's probably just going to be all about war headlines but next week we'll we'll actually get stuff but tomorrow you're going to have absolutely nothing I mean today's pretty pretty active though 2% today you don't really have anything tomorrow it will be a Friday but like I said there it'll probably have to do with the war and what's going to happen over the week are they going to attack are they not going to attack oh oh oh oh we going to have to do a lot of that we still got 40 minutes"
Pending
If Donald Trump wins the presidency, the markets will experience a 'different type of volatile' activity and his press conferences will be more entertaining over the next four years.
"if Trump wins the market will be much more fun in the next four years I think uh I think the markets will be a little bit more I think it'll be a different type of volatile but I think the press conferences will be a little bit more entertaining that would be nice"
Pending
If Donald Trump wins the presidency, Jerome Powell is predicted to serve as Fed Chair for an additional 'couple of months, a year or so, maybe two' but will not complete a full term under Trump. Jamie Dimon is not expected to be appointed as the new Fed Chair.
"I wonder if Trump wins who will be the Fed chair I think it's nonsense that Trump will fire Powell so Powell will get like an extra couple of months a year or so I think maybe two but then the question is who would replace Powell cuz I don't know if Trump would keep Powell even though Powell no I don't think they'd put Jamie Diamond in as the [ __ ] Fed chair bro I don't that's kind of bat [ __ ]"
Pending
Next week's US data (Tuesday/Wednesday) expected to dramatically move bonds.
"before you know it Tuesday Wednesday you're going to be getting big us data that can move uh that can move the bonds dramatically"
Pending
Dutch Bros (BROS) stock is predicted to recover its value within the next couple of days or weeks, as recent earnings decline is seen as unjustified.
"I don't think their earnings justifies a down 26% move that's why I'm saying in the next couple of days maybe couple of weeks it should come back up"
Pending
Intel (INTC) stock is predicted to experience significant growth ('ripping') by this time next year (August 2025).
"just give it time this time next year Intel will be ripping"
Pending
The dividend restriction on MPW is believed to be temporary, with expectations of a future benefit or resolution.
"I think it's temporary or it's related to those other assets or like again like Steward or you're going to be getting something on the back end"
Pending
A second bad bond auction (30-year) is expected to cause stocks to decline and bonds (TLT) to experience a brief, volatile reaction.
"That's a second bad Bond auction no stocks might come come down yesterday after our auction we started to dip a little bit... I think bonds might get killed there's going to be a little kneejerk pop and lock on uh on TLT"
Pending
Eli Lilly's market capitalization is predicted to exceed the $100 billion estimate and go 'way higher'.
"Eli Lily we're looking at massive numbers and I think it's safe to say that the hundred billion dollar Mark that a lot of people have kind of estimated is is going to be too low and we're going to see this Market go way higher than that"
Pending
Current market volatility likely to cause a couple of months of 'hiccups' similar to the 2023 banking crisis, then market will recover.
"The banking situation it caused like a couple of months of of hiccups and then we we got over it so that's probably what's going to happen here you know until we find out what really went down but it could cause a couple of hiccups and then that's it you just you just move from there"
Pending
Any potential market downturn or economic 'hiccup' is expected to be short-lived, lasting 3 to 9 months maximum.
"I'm I'm really expecting something shortlived 3 months 6 months 9 months Max"
Pending
Market volatility due to the ongoing war (Ukraine-Russia or Middle East) is unlikely unless a new war starts or the current one ends.
"I just I don't think we're going to get War volatility unless we start a new one or the war ends but for now I I I just don't even think any of that stuff is going to move us"
Pending
The upcoming weekend is expected to involve continued speculation and uncertainty regarding Iran and global tensions.
"it does seem like into this weekend we're going to have another Friday of wondering what's happening with Iran and Global tensions"
Pending
The speaker expects better buying opportunities (discounts) on various assets in the future.
"I just I think you're going to get better discounts on a lot of stuff so be patient"
Pending
The market is expected to experience significant 'pops and drops' (volatility) throughout the current month (August 2024).
"pops and drops all all month"
Pending
Chinese stocks (like BIDU) are expected to benefit from any future US market 'calamity' as negative attention shifts away from China.
"I do think byou and China plays they should benefit from whatever Calamity we have next just because again I think you bring the attention to us it's gonna free up some of the negative attention that has been on uh that's been on China"
Pending
China's market is predicted to outperform others, offering good value after a prolonged period of weakness.
"I really think China is going to outperform I I really believe that I've been looking for that for a while and they have a lot of they got a lot of value out there in China"
Pending
Federal Reserve Chair Powell is expected to announce a rate cut within approximately one month, which would be the first in a long time.
"it's literally a month between now and pow and that pow is suspected to be a rate cut uh the first time here in a long time"
Pending
Tomorrow (August 9, 2024) is predicted to be a very slow news day, with market attention likely focused on war-related headlines and speculation about potential attacks over the weekend.
"tomorrow you're going to have absolutely nothing I mean today's pretty pretty active though 2% today you don't really have anything tomorrow it will be a Friday but like I said there it'll probably have to do with the war and what's going to happen over the week are they going to attack are they not going to attack"
Pending
Even without scheduled appearances, a Fed speaker is expected to 'pop up' and make public statements.
"any fed speakers on the calendar I think you're going to get even if there's nothing nobody on this schedule I feel like one of them is going to pop up and say hi"
Pending
Mortgage rates are expected to continue to decrease.
"this is good for mortgage rates mortgage rates are going to go lower again they were already lower"
Pending
Market volatility is predicted to continue for the rest of the month (August), characterized by significant daily 'pops and drops' (e.g., 2-4% swings), until key data releases (CPI) and Fed Chair Powell's statements.
"all month I think all month is going to be pops and drops I think we're going to move like I said 2% down 3% up 3% down 3 and 1 half% Up 3 and 1 half% down half a percent up 2% down 4% up and then play that game pretty much until we get the data and Powell cuz we only have one month until pow now and then again CPI next week and then give that a couple more weeks and before you know it we're ending the month"
Pending
Expect significant market movement driven by big data (CPI/PPI) next week, followed by more earnings, leading up to the end of the month or early September when the Federal Reserve is expected to either raise or cut rates.
"before you know it we get after next week Big Data next week after that may be a little chill you're wrapping up more earnings then we get another week after that and then boom it'll be end of the month uh or again end of near September and then we're raising rates and or cutting rates and then it's Powell"
Pending
Demand for electricians is expected to remain extremely high, especially due to the growth of EVs, making it easy for graduates to achieve high earnings.
"I think when you graduate I think it'll be very easy for you to make that and I don't know what area you're in but I think once you're completed I I dude I think the demand for electricians right now is through the roof it's insane with all of the EV stuff"
Pending
If Trump wins the presidency, the market is expected to experience a different kind of volatility, and it's uncertain who he would appoint as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell's term (expected to last another year or two).
"if Trump wins the market will be much more fun in the next four years I think uh I think the markets will be a little bit more I think it'll be a different type of volatile but I think the press conferences will be a little bit more entertaining that would be nice but you know the real question I wonder if Trump wins who will be the Fed chair I think it's nonsense that Trump will fire Powell so Powell will get like an extra couple of months a year or so I think maybe two but then the question is who would replace Powell cuz I don't know if Trump would keep Powell"
Pending
Ozempic (GLP-1 drugs) is expected to have broader uses beyond weight loss, potentially stopping cravings for other substances, classifying it as a 'performance-enhancing drug'.
"I think they're doing trials on it but I think there's some some basis of OIC stopping cravings for everything else that would be the only other reason that's what I'm saying performance enhancing it's not only for weight loss"
Pending
Tomorrow's market activity (August 9, 2024) is predicted to vary: large gaps (up or down) will lead to a boring afternoon, while small gaps will result in more movement. Overnight developments in Japan will influence the opening.
"tomorrow is going to be pretty a mix of boring or exciting depending on how we Gap up or not so if we Gap up a lot or gap down a lot tomorrow I think it'll be kind of boring after the morning but then if we don't Gap up or gap down a lot then then I think we'll move a lot a lot more and then obviously mhm whatever happens with your boy Japan uh that will unfortunately give us a Quee by the time we get into the am"
Pending