ilmscore | LIVE FOMC RATE DECISION DECEMBER 2025

LIVE FOMC RATE DECISION DECEMBER 2025

Predictions from this Video

Total: 19
Correct: 1
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 17
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Predicted Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025.
"the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points."
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
Correct
Predicted US real GDP to rise 1.7% in 2025.
"the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7% this year"
US Real GDP
Pending
Predicted US real GDP to rise 2.3% in 2026.
"and 2.3% next year"
US Real GDP
Pending
Predicted US unemployment rate to be 4.5% by the end of 2025.
"the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.5% at the end of this year"
US Unemployment Rate
Incorrect
Predicted US PCE inflation to be 2.9% in 2025.
"The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.9% this year"
US PCE Inflation
Pending
Predicted US PCE inflation to be 2.4% in 2026.
"and 2.4% next year"
US PCE Inflation
Pending
Predicted US PCE inflation to fall to 2% after 2026.
"Thereafter, the median falls to 2%."
US PCE Inflation
Pending
Predicted Federal Funds Rate to be 3.1% by the end of 2027.
"3.1% at the end of 2027"
Federal Funds Rate
Pending
Predicted purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to amount to $40 billion in the first month.
"amount to $40 billion in the first month"
Treasury Securities Purchases (Reserve Management)
Pending
Predicted purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to remain elevated for a few months.
"may remain elevated for a few months"
Treasury Securities Purchases (Reserve Management)
Pending
Predicted the size of reserve management purchases to decline after a few months of being elevated.
"Thereafter, we expect the size of reserves reserve management purchases to decline"
Treasury Securities Purchases (Reserve Management)
Pending
Predicted progress in non-tariff related inflation to show through in 2026 as tariffs flow through.
"as tariffs come through, as they flow through, that'll show through next year."
Non-tariff related inflation
Pending
Predicted tariff price increases to peak in Q1 2026.
"call it the first quarter or or so of next year should be the peak"
Tariff Price Increases
Pending
Predicted tariff price increases to be a couple of tenths of a percentage or less after Q1 2026.
"from here it should be it shouldn't be big it should be a couple tenths or or even less than"
Tariff Price Increases (rate after peak)
Pending
Predicted tariff inflation to be a one-time price increase.
"we do think of those as likely to in the current situation as likely to be a one-time price increase."
Tariff Inflation
Pending
Predicted the housing market to remain a problem.
"So housing is going to be you know a problem"
Housing Market
Pending
Predicted market outlook for 2026 and 2027 to be not bullish.
"There's nothing bullish about 2026 and 2027."
Market Outlook
Pending
Predicted the Federal Reserve will not aggressively cut interest rates in 2026.
"they don't intend to aggressively cut rates in 2026"
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
Pending
Predicted Jerome Powell to be replaced after Q1 2026.
"Jerome Pow is set to be replaced but that is after the first quarter of 2026"
Jerome Powell's position
Pending
Predicted strong pullback potential for the market on a larger timeframe once hype fades.
"that there is strong pullback potential."
Market (general)
Pending
Predicted Federal Reserve to implement one rate cut in 2026.
"One rate cut is scheduled for all of 2026."
Federal Reserve Interest Rates
Pending