Published: 2025-12-10
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 1
Prediction
Topic
Status
Predicted US unemployment rate to be 4.5% by the end of 2025.
"the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.5% at the end of this year"
Incorrect
Predicted US PCE inflation to fall to 2% after 2026.
"Thereafter, the median falls to 2%."
Pending
Predicted Federal Funds Rate to be 3.1% by the end of 2027.
"3.1% at the end of 2027"
Pending
Predicted purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to amount to $40 billion in the first month.
"amount to $40 billion in the first month"
Pending
Predicted purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to remain elevated for a few months.
"may remain elevated for a few months"
Pending
Predicted the size of reserve management purchases to decline after a few months of being elevated.
"Thereafter, we expect the size of reserves reserve management purchases to decline"
Pending
Predicted tariff price increases to peak in Q1 2026.
"call it the first quarter or or so of next year should be the peak"
Pending
Predicted tariff price increases to be a couple of tenths of a percentage or less after Q1 2026.
"from here it should be it shouldn't be big it should be a couple tenths or or even less than"
Pending
Predicted tariff inflation to be a one-time price increase.
"we do think of those as likely to in the current situation as likely to be a one-time price increase."
Pending
Predicted the Federal Reserve will not aggressively cut interest rates in 2026.
"they don't intend to aggressively cut rates in 2026"
Pending
Predicted Jerome Powell to be replaced after Q1 2026.
"Jerome Pow is set to be replaced but that is after the first quarter of 2026"
Pending
Predicted Federal Reserve to implement one rate cut in 2026.
"One rate cut is scheduled for all of 2026."
Pending