ilmscore | Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Published: 2025-12-29
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 9
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 9
Prediction
Topic
Status
Diminishing returns in Bitcoin cycles are predicted to continue.
"I don't think so, right? I think it's still going to go on."
BTC
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to have negative returns (a 'red year') in both 2025 and 2026.
"if 2025 is red and 2026 is red, which is kind of my base case"
BTC
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to rally to the bull market support band in 2026, potentially after another temporary wick down.
"I kind of think that we will have a rally to the bull market support band. Uh, but I don't think it's going to happen until 2026. And I think there's at least there's decent odds that it doesn't happen until after we go maybe we like wick back down one more time and then rally."
BTC
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to reach a euphoria phase, but not until the next market cycle (beyond 2026).
"I do think Bitcoin will go to euphoria. I just don't think it's going to be until next cycle"
BTC
Pending
If the unemployment rate continues to rise in 2026, the Bitcoin bull market is predicted to be over.
"if this doesn't stop going up in 2026, then the bull market is certainly over."
BTC
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to be in a bare market and reach the 200E moving average by summer or October 2026 at the latest.
"my base case right now is that Bitcoin that that it's in a bare market and that we're going to go to say the 200E moving average by the summer or October 2026 at the latest."
BTC
Pending
If Bitcoin sweeps its prior low and rallies aggressively like in 2019, market participants are predicted to declare 'alt season'.
"I guarantee you if it sweeps this low and we start to rally as aggressively as we did in 2019, everyone's going to be like, 'See, we told you alt season is coming.'"
BTC
Pending
The Fed's balance sheet is predicted to start increasing in 2026.
"You could argue that the balance sheet of the Fed is going to start going up in 2026"
Macroeconomics (Fed Balance Sheet)
Pending
The unemployment rate is predicted to enter a nonlinear phase, increasing rapidly and not stopping for some time.
"it's possible that we're starting to get into the nonlinear phase of the unemployment rate going up where it goes up but it doesn't stop going up for a little while."
Macroeconomics (Unemployment Rate)
Pending