Published: 2026-02-10
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin could bottom as early as May 2026 and begin an uptrend, based on a 'left translated cycle' (Ben Cowen's view).
"As Ben Cowen says, he says that case can happen and we could actually happen in May and basically bottom in May and keep going up."
Pending
The author initially predicted Bitcoin's bottom would be around $57,000-$58,000 (a prediction he later revises in the video).
"that number in my head was about 57 58,000. And I don't know why that was the number in my head. It was just a number that I had in my head. And I said, I kind of think that the bottom is going to be around 57 58,000."
Pending
A 5.5 standard deviation move in Bitcoin's price is a historical indicator that precedes multi-month rallies (aixbt's observation/prediction).
"aixbt said, 'Bitcoin just printed a 5.5 standard deviation move. This has happened 13 times in 5,000 plus trading days since 2010. Every single occurrence preceded multi-month rallies.'"
Pending
Bitcoin's most likely price low will occur in October 2026, based on the four-year cycle (Ben Cowen's view).
"He says the most likely low for Bitcoin is October 2026. That's based on the four-year cycle."
Pending
Bitcoin's likely worst-case bottom price is $40,000.
"The number looks like it's somewhere around $40,000. Okay, I know it's scary and I know that I probably should have kept that to the end, but I want to show you why $40,000 does seem like a likely worst case scenario, so to speak."
Pending
The bear market is predicted to last another 242 days (from Feb 10, 2026), ending around October 2026.
"the base case says there's another 242 days till the end of the bull market."
Pending
If Bitcoin follows the 2022 fractal and drops an additional 30% below the 200-week moving average, its price will reach $40,000.
"if we go down another 30%. So that number basically says to okay so we are here let's go to here and say okay let's let's say we tag that 200-week moving average somewhere here and we draw the line down 30% that number takes us to exactly $40,000."
Pending
Based on historical patterns of tagging progressively higher moving averages (200, 300, 350), Bitcoin is predicted to tag the 400 moving average at approximately $39,747 in this cycle.
"Logically, every cycle we've tagged a 50-day moving average higher. So 200, 300, 350, 400. That number is at 39,747."
Pending
Based on the Sharpe ratio, Bitcoin is predicted to drop 30-35% from its current price, reaching $40,000.
"if you take where we are now and you drop 30 35%, where do we get to? We get to 40,000 again."
Pending
A 70-75% drawdown in Bitcoin's price from its all-time high is calculated to bring it down to the $40,000 level.
"What would a 75% drawdown top to bottom give us? So let's just go back to the top here. Let's bring that down 70%. Takes you back to 40,000 level."
Pending
If Bitcoin's price breaks below the realized price of $55,000, it is predicted to fall to the $40,000 level.
"if we break below that and that's sitting at 55,000 now, then again that 40,000 magical number basically starts to surface again."
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to continue to go down, potentially reaching $40,000.
"I wanted to show you that we can actually continue to go down all the way down to 40,000."
Pending