ilmscore | The Recession Risk Just Spiked — Why No One’s Talking About This Signal

The Recession Risk Just Spiked — Why No One’s Talking About This Signal

Published: 2025-07-28
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 9
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 9
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The US housing market is predicted to become a significant obstacle to economic growth in late 2025 and early 2026.
"Housing will soon be a full-blown headwind to broader economic growth, adding to the growing list of reasons to be worried about the economy's prospects later in 2025 and early next year."
US Housing Market
Pending
Home sales, new construction, and prices are expected to decline if mortgage rates do not decrease significantly from 7%.
"Home sales, home building, and even home prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates fall materially from their current 7% rate."
US Housing Market
Pending
The number of new homes being sold, started, and completed is predicted to decrease in the near future.
"New home sales starts and completions will soon fall."
US Housing Market
Pending
Housing prices are expected to decline due to stagnant growth, high mortgage rates, and increased inventory.
"Mark says that prices have gone sideways and are set to fall. 7% mortgage rates are hammering demand and there are more listings."
US Housing Market
Pending
A significant reduction in interest rates is not anticipated in the immediate future.
"Based on the information we have today, it doesn't look like we're going to see a big drop in interest rates anytime soon."
US Interest Rates
Pending
If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates significantly in 2025 and a new leader is appointed in 2026 who favors aggressive cuts, interest rates could decrease in 2026.
"if Jerome Powell doesn't cut interest rates a lot in 2025, and now here comes 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank sees a big shakeup and now there's somebody leading the Federal Reserve Bank who wants to cut interest rates aggressively. That could mean that we see a drop in interest rates in 2026."
US Interest Rates
Pending
A decrease in interest and mortgage rates could stimulate home sales, encourage new construction, and potentially increase home prices.
"if interest rates and mortgage rates go down, well then that can then boost home sales. That could then encourage builders to build again and that could then push home prices up even more."
US Mortgage Rates
Pending
If lower mortgage rates support the housing market, they are predicted to decline at some point in 2026.
"if lower mortgage rates do help save the housing market, well, we can anticipate if things stay true to what we know today that mortgage rates could be going down at some point in 2026."
US Mortgage Rates
Pending
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' enacted by President Trump will have retroactive effects starting January 1, 2025.
"It goes into effect retroactively. It goes into effect January 1, 2025."
US Economy
Pending