Graham Stephan

I have no doubt the Fed will just continue printing more money.

when you adjust for inflation, gold is pretty much back to the point it was 50 years ago.

Bitcoin has already seen such a large price runup that it makes sense that some people are just taking their profits.

That's why I keep about 20% in the mix between tax-free muns and treasuries that earn anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5.3%.

But long term, I am optimistic that people are going to be looking for a digital store of value.

I will discuss the topic including further housing and affordability proposals and more at my speech in Davos in 2 weeks.

the general consensus seems to be that we're not likely to see one asset class explode in price or an imminent collapse that's about to wipe everybody out. But instead, we're probably entering a time of lower, choppier returns, a little more volatility, and fewer easy wins.

So, is it still a good investment? In my opinion, maybe. A lot of people look at what's called the gold to silver ratio, which tracks how many ounces of silver buys you 1 ounce of gold. And when you see an extreme, this might indicate that either gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued. And right now the chart shows that either gold has room to fall or silver has a little more room to grow.

Generally, I do worry that AI valuations are getting a bit out of hand. It seems a bit frothy. There's a lot more speculation than I like to see, but that is not stopping me from buying in because who knows what's going to happen or how long it'll last. or maybe this is just the very beginning. So, I'm not going to try to time the market.

For the last 5 years, I have been dollar cost averaging into a US broad market ETF that basically covers the S&P 500 along with larger midcap stocks, a 20% allocation to international stocks, and a 5% allocation to emerging markets because I believe the rest of the world is soon going to catch up with the advancements that we're making here in the United States.

Generally, I do worry that AI valuations are getting a bit out of hand. It seems a bit frothy. There's a lot more speculation than I like to see, but that is not stopping me from buying in because who knows what's going to happen or how long it'll last. or maybe this is just the very beginning. So, I'm not going to try to time the market.

I've made the decision to start selling everything off. Why, you might ask? Well, before we go into why I'm selling these properties, I want to pause for a second because this ties into directly how I think about risk. See, when the markets feel unpredictable and everything is at an all-time high, the one thing you have direct control over is your spending. For me, this became extremely obvious when I started tracking my own expenses, and realizing how much is quietly leaking out every single month. I'm talking about subscriptions I forgot about, charges that autorenewed at prices I didn't agree to. All of it just adds up. Like just the other day, I found that an old subscription renewed and the new price was 50% higher than the original price. Now, of course, I called them and I got the money back, but that would not have been possible without our sponsor, Rocket Money. No joke, they're the platform that I've been using on a daily basis for years that aggregates all of my accounts in one place, helps me keep track of spending, and then sends me alerts anytime something seems unusual. I also really like how they allow you to manage all of your recurring subscriptions in one place and then you could cancel with just a couple taps. Like the average person is spending over $1,000 a year in subscriptions. And my bet is that you have no idea how much you're actually being charged. This is why Rocket Money has helped save its customers up to $740 a year when you use all of the app's premium features. And they've also helped customers save over $880 million in canceled subscriptions. So, if you want to take control of your finances today, just head to rocketmoney.com/gram or use the link down below in the description to unlock even more features with Premium. Again, without exaggeration, I've been using them on a daily basis for years and they have saved me a ton of money. So, again, that link is down below. Rocketmoney.com/gra. Thanks so much. And now, let's get back to the video. All right, so in terms of why I'm selling off all of my real estate, on the one hand, this is a really unique time for the housing market. like monthly payments have more than doubled in the last 5 years. Some areas are seeing rather large price drops while others continue seeing non-stop gains. And throughout most of the United States, it's actually cheaper to rent than buy. So from an ROI standpoint, it makes sense in my situation to cash out and put that money to work somewhere else. However, on the other hand, I also just don't want the hassle of owning property in California anymore. Like prices have risen to a point where it's better to cash out. expenses are increasing faster than I'm allowed to raise rents. And from a peace of mind standpoint, I do not want to deal anymore with contractors, management companies, and insurance companies. That's why in my situation, I don't want to be involved in real estate anymore. Now, does that mean it's bad for everybody? Of course not. If you have the hunger to go and find a good deal, fix it up, and add value, by all means, go for it. It's just for myself. I value more time over more money and real estate for me is not the best way to achieve that goal. This is why so far I have sold three properties in the last two years. My plan is to sell another two when I get them ready. And ideally longterm, all I want is a primary residence that I live in myself and that's it. Again, this is about optimizing more so for peace of mind than more money. Even though in California, I'd actually make more money selling out the properties and putting that money to work somewhere else. But we'll save that for another video. Anyway, in terms of the broader market though, since this is a 2026 video, it's largely expected that mortgage rates will begin to decline, prices may begin to soften, but not collapse, and affordability may slightly improve for buyers, but not by much. So, the general consensus seems to be more of the same.

In terms of silver, it is driven by fundamentals. Like, there's a lot of industrial use for solar panels, EVs, and electronics that push prices higher. There's economic uncertainty that's causing people to put their money into alternative investments. Combine that with the fact that silver has been on a supply deficit for 5 years straight, and you get a perfect storm for prices to keep going higher. However, even though precious metals have pretty much outperformed everything in 2025, we knew just for inflation, silver is still below its 1980 peak, which would place it closer to $150 to $200 today. So, is it still a good investment? In my opinion, maybe. A lot of people look at what's called the gold to silver ratio, which tracks how many ounces of silver buys you 1 ounce of gold. And when you see an extreme, this might indicate that either gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued. And right now the chart shows that either gold has room to fall or silver has a little more room to grow. Especially because they can't just go and create more silver.

Now, even though Bitcoin's price swings like this are not unusual by any stretch of the imagination, seeing a year overyear price decrease like this has so far only happened three times over the last 10 years. In terms of what's causing this, it appears as though we have the perfect storm all happening at the exact same time. First, there's a lot of leverage in the system so that when the price goes down, traders get liquidated, causing the price to fall even further. Second, more and more investors are moving their money away from risk assets and into safer investments, therefore less money is flowing into Bitcoin. And third, Bitcoin has already seen such a large price runup that it makes sense that some people are just taking their profits. This is why I only keep a small portion of my portfolio in a Bitcoin ETF that I dollar cost average into like I would any other stock. And since the price is down this year, I was able to tax loss harvest my big purchases to offset capital gains elsewhere. And then I'll continue buying back in once that 30 days is up. Beyond that though, for purposes of transparency, the Bitcoin ETF, I got to say, has been my worst performing investment of 2025. Even though when you zoom out, the holdings have still done pretty well. But year-over-year, not the best. Unlike this next one, which would be precious metals. Now, I'll admit I'm not a huge precious metals investor. I own a few ounces of gold that I've held on for over a decade. I probably have a few hundred silver coins that I've kept since I was a kid. I've got an ounce of platinum bullion from 1999. That's it. But it has been astonishing to see just how much precious metals have risen over the last year. Like gold passing $4,300 an ounce, silver hitting almost $70, and platinum reaching 2,000. In fact, a lot of you have been asking for me to make an entire video dedicated to silver. So, here's what I have to say about it. In terms of silver, it is driven by fundamentals. Like, there's a lot of industrial use for solar panels, EVs, and electronics that push prices higher. There's economic uncertainty that's causing people to put their money into alternative investments. Combine that with the fact that silver has been on a supply deficit for 5 years straight, and you get a perfect storm for prices to keep going higher. However, even though precious metals have pretty much outperformed everything in 2025, we knew just for inflation, silver is still below its 1980 peak, which would place it closer to $150 to $200 today. So, is it still a good investment? In my opinion, maybe. A lot of people look at what's called the gold to silver ratio, which tracks how many ounces of silver buys you 1 ounce of gold. And when you see an extreme, this might indicate that either gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued. And right now the chart shows that either gold has room to fall or silver has a little more room to grow. Especially because they can't just go and create more silver. In terms of gold though, again historically it pretty much tracks the price of inflation. And again going back to the 1980s when you adjust for inflation, gold is pretty much back to the point it was 50 years ago. So yes, in short bursts you can absolutely make a lot of money in precious metals. But long term, I tend to be a lot more optimistic in equities like stocks. But time will tell. And in terms of my last investment, I have one more fail safe to talk about, and that would be treasuries. Overall, I like to structure my portfolio in such a way where I could take advantage of any opportunity whenever it comes up. That's why I keep about 20% in the mix between tax-free muns and treasuries that earn anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5.3%. This gives me a lot of peace of mind knowing that if the market falls, I have the cash to buy back in. And if it keeps going higher, well, that's fine, too, because I get monthly income. Now, yes, in hindsight, this did make a lot less money than I would have made just investing in the S&P 500, but it does give me a lot of peace of mind knowing that no matter what happens, it'll be totally fine. I guess I just put a pretty heavy price of peace of mind and stability to the point where I'm just playing at this point not to lose, not necessarily to maximize every single dollar every place I can. That's why in terms of what I think about 2026, here's my own analysis. Generally, I do worry that AI valuations are getting a bit out of hand. It seems a bit frothy. There's a lot more speculation than I like to see, but that is not stopping me from buying in because who knows what's going to happen or how long it'll last. or maybe this is just the very beginning. So, I'm not going to try to time the market. Now, in terms of Bitcoin, I allocate about 10 to 15% of my entire portfolio into a Bitcoin ETF. This is an amount that I'm willing to risk, and if it goes to zero, you know what? So be it. But long term, I am optimistic that people are going to be looking for a digital store of value. I have no doubt the Fed will just continue printing more money. And over the next 10 years, as long as I'm not holding on to dollars, I'm happy. Beyond that though, when I zoom out and I look at analyst expectations throughout 2026, the general consensus seems to be that we're not likely to see one asset class explode in price or an imminent collapse that's about to wipe everybody out. But instead, we're probably entering a time of lower, choppier returns, a little more volatility, and fewer easy wins. At the end of the day, the future is likely to reward consistency, patience, and discipline. And I don't think that's a bad thing. I've just noticed that markets tend to punish people who chase headlines, overlever, and try to outsmart everyone else. When in reality, the easiest way to come out ahead is to diversify, keep buying, and don't panic when the market drops. So whether this year turns into the next generational buying opportunity or the one that tested everyone's patience, my strategy is going to be the exact same. Keep buying in consistently, diversify throughout index funds, and no matter what, hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already. So, with that said, thank you so much for watching. Don't forget to check out Rocket Money down below in the description to track your finances. Now is the best time to start. Really appreciate it. And until next time.

Four, we should really allow mortgage porting. This way, you could take your existing mortgage with you to the next home as long as you're trading up, and that would unlock a lot of lowerpriced inventory.

First, we got to streamline permits, improve zoning, and reduce the red tape. There should never be any confusion from one inspector to another. There doesn't need to be dozens of departments where none of them communicate with one another. And if they just made the permitting process easier, more people would want to build.

Six, I also think modular housing needs to make a comeback. I just think we have to come to the realization that land is going to be expensive in the areas most people want to live. And modular housing without parking requirements solves a lot of problems.

Five, we should really allow people to write off the first $1.5 million of their mortgage interest up from the current $750,000. Again, this would prompt a lot of people to want to move up, unlocking a lot of lowerpriced inventory in the starter home range.

Three, we should really increase the capital gains exclusion to a million dollars for married couples filing jointly and then increase it every single year to CPI. This would incentivize more sellers to finally let go of their home.

And finally, seven, we have to give more tax incentives to builders. Look, the city [clears throat] will never and cannot build their own houses. So, give builders a tax abatement if they bring in jobs, resources, and housing to areas that desperately need it.

Rental prices are going to go up because there's less rental inventory. Home prices might also begin to go up because there's less incentive to build houses in bulk and nothing is going to be done to improve home affordability.

And third, as unpopular as this is to say, measures like this have actually been tried in the past and have completely backfired.

And I will be calling on Congress to codify it.

this could actually wind up increasing home prices. It could reduce supply even further and it could hurt the people it was intended to protect.

Most people would be able to replace or quit their job 50 to 60 grand a year and be able to control their