ilmscore | Prediction Details
"you're going to lose money you will actually uh accelerate your loss and so as I sat thinking about that um had had to spend a good amount of time in the car yesterday had a bunch of errands to run and whatever so I'm driving around I'm thinking about that and thinking about all right discipline is your ticket to success and if you can't feel good about yourself because you're having a green day you can at least feel good about yourself that you maintain discipline that you followed your rules and something that I often say is that it's not about consecutive green days it's about consecutive days of maintaining discipline because red days happen they're fine it's not a big deal now we get so fixated on always being green that we can get ourselves into a real trap where as soon as we're red we get emotional and then we get hijacked and then we give fomo we start spiraling and next thing you know because you didn't want to be down 500 bucks you're down 5,000 which is the stupidest thing in the world now humans you know obviously Naturally by aptitude are not good at trading we have to train ourselves to be good at trading and the biggest thing we have to train ourselves into is having discipline and even no matter how much training you have it's hard to fight that urge you think about a dog who chases a squirrel now no matter how much you try to train the dog not to do it it's going to be really hard for them to fight that just Instinct and it's a lot like that for us and certainly for me as a momentum Trader because I'm often trading things that are going higher and higher and so there's actually a little bit of a Chase Instinct all right so let's jump on to the Chart so finishing the morning here um $1,432 last trade was on bzi first trade of the day however was on lasc so I've got four stocks I traded green on three out of the four average losers today tiny if we looked at my metrics for today they're phenomenal accuracy was terrific profit loss ratio terrific yesterday it was not good now part of that was out of my control I couldn't control the fact that yesterday we didn't have any really good news headlines that's just the luck of the draw that's the way it goes sometimes but rather than accept that which would have been exercising discipline that part of me was thinking well maybe there'll be something a little later in the in the day that was sort of that intrusive thought and I gave that intrusive thought a voice and then I empowered it to start trading in my account for me where was I I don't know so not good so anyways um let's see so first Trad of the day for me today was on lse LC this stock um actually put in a really impressive move yesterday but you know what I did not have fomo over it um I will say as I was uh driving around running aand I did pull it up on my phone and well I pulled up my charts on my phone or my scans on my phone and this is sort of before I kind of got myself a little more centered but I thought oh is this going to be something I should look at for an after hours trade like amambo from Tuesday or for Monday now ambo on Monday gave us this really nice after hour squeeze if you recall where it went from gosh what was it um this thing squeezed all the way from about $350 up to $6 a share that was nice but you know those are a little bit of the exception not the norm and I thought I think part of me was like well we just had a move like that yesterday maybe people are going to be more AP to look for that today and I don't think that that's necessarily incorrect but uh but ultimately you know I I I sort of said to myself look your metric don't support you trading after hours so it doesn't matter what happens after hours you know you could have a stock that actually goes up and you still manage to lose money on it the way we had yesterday at otrk otrk goes up and I still lost on it so just because I look back at the chart and see something went straight up doesn't mean I would have made money on it I still could have managed to lose as I did on this one so first trade of the day lasc this one um you know sold off Monday we got the deadcat bounce which was more than we expected goes sideways goes sideways starts to pull away here goes all the way up to 942 yesterday and then pulls back so my first trade on this was actually um right at 7 a.m. so that's when retail Traders can begin trading for the most part and I jumped in it at about 823 for the break of vwap right here it ends up going up to about 868 which was fantastic I was like you know what that's awesome made almost $1,000 on that first Trade It flushes back down I bought the dip at 798 down here and it pops back up here it ends up coming all the way back back up to 880 so on my first two trades on it I'm up 1,300 bucks well first three or four trades it was the trades right in this area 1,300 bucks so I was like that's great then right here it squeezes and pushes higher so I traded it right there on the break through this flat top I sort of Saw resistance at about 860 we broke through 860 we pushed a little bit higher we go up to 9 and then I'm looking at this level yesterday which was yesterday's high 942 and for what it's worth I'm also kind of looking at the daily chart and I'm thinking you know this daily chart is not phenomenal it's a little sloppy the problem is um you know it's such a nasty pullback how much do we really expect it's going to bounce right it just doesn't really make sense so anyways um as it pulled away there um it comes up to 940 and I was like all right that's close enough to this blue line which is yesterday's high daily resistance so I said and you know what was really interesting is there was a big buyer on the bid like down here stock pushes higher that person cancels their order then there's another big buyer on the bid right here stock pushes higher and then they cancel their order again so when I saw a big buyer on the bid here at 26 what I was thinking was this is a that someone's putting these orders here to try to encourage people to buy the stock maybe so they can short it or so they can sell it but you know what's also possible is someone was putting those buy orders on the bid to cover a short position or perhaps to buy a long position but it's a funny spot to buy a long position it sort of makes more sense it might have been someone short covering and so when we came back down here to 25 26 I was expecting that big order which was like 25,000 shares to get cancelled but I start seeing people sell into it goes 25 24 23 22 21 20 18 15 13 11 10 98 76 5 4 3 2 1 and the stock doesn't drop and at that moment I said there's another there's there's this is Iceberg there's a big order sitting behind here and I bought 4,500 shares right there just, 1500 shares boom boom boom times three, 1500 shares starter size on a more expensive stock like this so 4500 shares and then I add right here for the break through the high so now I'm in 6,000 shares and this thing rips up here and I'm taking my profit off the table so that ended up putting me up about 2200 on lasc that was at about 851 but um in between my first trades on LSC a LC and that trade um I did have a small trade on otrk which was yesterday's kind of big momentum stock um that was when it popped up right here nice pop about a quarter million shares of volume sort of curls up I thought maybe you know maybe we get a little deadcat bounce on it anyways made 300 bucks on that nothing really exciting but after that trade in my first couple trades I was up 1,600 on the day when 8:30 came so 8:30 bottom of the hour bzi squeezes up over 100% And it does it really quickly so here's how I traded bzi first of all I saw BN bzi on my scanners it's not on my um top gapper SC or my high a day momentum scanner yet but it was on my top Gainer scanner and my low float top Gainer scanner moving up so as I saw it moving up I pull up the chart bzi is a familiar name we've traded in the past if you recall back here we had the reverse split on it it gave us this nice pop it pulls back then it gives us another big move 60 million shares of volume both days now it pulls back makes all-time low yesterday 267 low and then all of a sudden today news comes out and it starts popping up uh announces strategic business initiatives to improve net income by up to 13.5 million annually okay we'll see whether or not that actually happens but that was the news headline so it hits the scanners it starts pulling away and you know what I was pretty quick to see it I I spotted it fast and I jumped into my first order at 392 right here so it spikes up here and I take my first long at 392 anticipating the break through $4 a share it goes up to 418 and I'm like sweet I added at 404 and then it flushes on this red candle down to a low of 370 and I was like o uhoh okay this might have been a mistake it bounces I add on the dip at about 380 something it bounces back up to 48 and I got out I was like all right that was close let's let's stabilize for a second now I wasn't taking big size on it but you know I was a little concerned this this might not be good so it comes back up I get out for about $180 of profit something like that so $108 of profit not bad nothing crazy ends up going sideways here um and then all of a sudden it seems like we're getting some support down here there's some buyers uh coming in off of four and the spread are getting bigger so I added back at about 405 it pops up to 424 it dips back down to four I add again Still Still Holding $4 as my kind of this is my support level and then it breaks 420 which was the level I was wanting to see it break and hold and it goes up to 430 440 so what do I do so let me pull up my orders here all right so that was LC so so I added back 406 413 I take some profit at 431 then I add back when it shows it's holding so now here it's holding this level so I added back right through here for the Breakthrough 450 then it goes up to 460 so it goes up to 460 I take some profit at 466 now it holds 466 which you know I was like wow okay so then I added for the break of 470 it goes up to 475 and on that trade I got in and got out basically Break Even it kind of because I added right here it pops up and then drops back down so it's like a break even trade and the high of that candle was about 475 so then it bottoms right here and I said can it hold the half dollar of 450 it held 450 so then I added back and we broke through 475 and go to 480 490 up to five so now all of a sudden we're at $5 a share I took some profit going up to that level and then I added when it held over five I added at 506 I added at 523 I added at 531 I added at 542 I took profit at the half dollar and then I added back as it held over 550 for the move up to six so basically the same thing I did right here so added as we pulled away took profit it holds this level adding then took some profit then adding is it held five taking some profit adding as it holds 550 taking some profit as it goes up to six and then it Peaks up here at about $6 and 58 cents which was really really impressive ends up dropping back down here I gave back about $500 off the top on this drop it comes back down and what I ended up doing is um it pulls back down to this level and I'm starting to watch support it bounces there and it comes back down right here right here I double bottom added off of 67 4500 shares at 71 then it bounces from there back up to six which was nice it pulls back goes back below vwap comes back up and as it squeezes back up it comes back up to six so we break over vwap it's going to take a second so we come back up here to vwap I didn't take this trade here but right in here I took this trade for the Breakthrough six right about here we go to 639 640 that was my last trade of the day we come into the open and it dips and rips up to 680 and I was like awesome but I'm not going to push my luck on it I don't need to I've had a great day I've doubled the daily goal doesn't matter what happens from here on out and I feel the same way looking at hoo hoo this one hit the scans early and did a full round trip it goes from 450 to 740 and then all the way back down to 540 comes back up here at the open halts down drops and then off of this low it rips up jack knife jack knife jack knife goes up to 660 drops and now it's up at 8 you know what good for you guys who traded it I don't need to I made my money today I don't need to push my luck I don't need to take the risk I just don't need to felt the same way on SN this one popped up and did another round trip very similar to Holo so it pops up I I was like you know what maybe I took a small trade got in got out lost 30 bucks and I was like you know what don't push your luck it's not worth it so um yeah so Holo I mean look it's great to see this move I love seeing this momentum we had some nice momentum um on sun midweek or I guess that was on Monday beginning of the week and on those um on those trades or on on on sober uh sorry not son on sober sobr that one was a little tougher because I was red I had a red day on Monday I was r at the open or pre-market and it was like pre-market was dead and I was like well my window's kind of closed right you know based on the time of day when I make the most money my window had closed and so I was like well I guess I I guess I should be done and then sobr ends up squeezing outside my window so I was like gosh darn it um you know and similarly it would have been awesome if Holo had put in that kind of squeeze during you know the time of day when I'm usually trading and doing well but it didn't right we got one that did bzi and I suppose you know today's a day where look if I had stayed longer maybe I could have would have should have but at a certain point you just have to ask yourself is it really worth continuing take the risk because catching a jack knife which is more common once the Market opens because of Market orders and stop orders catching a jack knife in an instant can wipe out all of a sudden a third of your profit on the day and that's exactly what happened to me yesterday I hit my daily goal I overstayed my welcome I got caught in one jack knife then I got frustrated went back in got a second one went back in got a third one and all of a sudden just like that my day was gone it's unbelievable how fast it happened so this right now is an opportunity for me to practice discipline to say look that's great it's going higher it's good for momentum hopefully we see more of it I hope it goes to $25 a share I hope it keeps going higher but I'm not going to come back into the market I'm going to take the $10,000 of profit that I made this morning and I'm GNA keep that I'm GNA let my account be back at all-time highs let it keep growing and you know live to trade another day you know I see Traders out there who trade at such a kind of different scale than what I trade at you know they'll they'll have I mean they might average 105 10 $8,000 days green days like this but when they go red their red days are 30 grand 40 grand 50 Grand 75 grand $100,000 you know there's these huge red deck because they get stubborn they dig their heels in they average down they don't give up and next thing you know you get in something like this and let's just say you bought the top at $8 and now you're down a dollar a share you took 5,000 share starter now you've averaged down to 10,000 next thing you know it halts down and you're in with 15,000 shares you're down 30 grand and it's like how did this day unravel so fast and that's that's the trap in the market you have a couple wins and you get a sense of confidence that you know what you're doing but the market Market can humble you and then it can remind you that wait a second you know you'll do well when you follow your strategy when you stay within your rules but when you start getting a little cocky you start getting a little aggressive you can get corrected real quick so yesterday's disappointment that I had was a logical consequence for breaking rules you break your rules you have a loss you're going to be disappointed that's a logical consequence and I wish that every time I broke my rules that's what happened but the market is not like that so I have to be the one that sort of disciplines myself and reminds myself that I'm not being punished right now for following my rules yes this is going higher but know in your heart and in your metrics that if you had chosen to trade this you know statistics tell you your odds of making money at that time of day are diminishing to the point where anything you might have made you know in net total you might you probably would have given it right back so you know print out your metrics use this this as a reminder this is your North Star this is your guiding point right this is where um you know you look at this and it's like this is what I need to do every day so when you take a big loss and it's on a trade that's outside that window you know it's like well well no kidding yeah of course you know you're trading outside your window what are you thinking and I get that sometimes trading outside the window you know you'll get you'll get a lucky trade and you'll be like look at me I can trade I can trade all day long but what I have found is that one of the and this is also interesting for after hours Traders if I trade after hours you know 400 p.m. to 5: if I make a mistake there's no there's really not time left to recover that mistake and it's very easy for me to get triggered because if I've had a decent day and then at 400 p.m. I lose it it's like there's a sense that I had it all day long like you gave me a cookie it was sitting here all day long but I wasn't able to eat it until 5:00 and now at 4:00 you're taking it away that's not fun that's not good and that's kind of what it is like with trading after hours because you have the profit but it's not really yours until you walk away for the day right once you walk away and it's done then it's done but when you're still trading there's always a risk you give it back and so giving it back at 4M because I've had days where I jump in a stock at 4M I get smoked on it and all of a sudden emotionally triggered immediately and looking for anything moving to recoup those losses and that's not discipline that's not good so I just know for me that trading later in the day exposes me my there's sort of a there's a there's a curve if you will um and let me I'll turn this camera on so we can get out the Whiteboard there's a little bit for me of a um of a curve where if the longer I trade into the day um the higher the likelihood is of me getting triggered so let me move this around here a little bit so let's say um you know my day starts at the earliest at you know about 7 a.m. so 7 a.m. and then this is 6:00 p.m. all right so that's the whole day now what what we know about um about there's sort of two there's two curves here one we'll do in green which is going to be profit so what we know is that my profits typically are the highest they pretty much right well if this is maybe 630 here they go um pretty quickly like this my profits and then and then they they go down if even faster than that it's like it's not it's not a very even bell curve um and actually we could say we could almost say like this is this is zero and then this is like losing M below zero right so negative um because that's that goes into the negative and then here's the thing my uh this is my threshold for getting triggered my threshold for getting triggered goes up sort of exponentially where the the further into the day we go where and I make a mistake the more likely I am to get triggered and to spiral so spiral risk factor increasing exponentially this isn't as exponential as it should be it increases exponentially as the day goes on right here and at the same time and maybe it's because of you can't disconnect these two it's for the same reason that my profitability goes into the negative because statistically this is when I'm more likely to make these big mistakes is down here so what we would actually say is that this is this is profit profit profit profit profit profit and then all of a sudden down here is starting to go into losses maybe the losses aren't big in this area uh in total but their losses nonetheless so that's not this is not a perfect graph um where was this this is just the last 30 days right here which showed um you know that that's my stop point and this is this after hour stuff was getting really bad but you get the idea so you know and I share this with you it it helps for me to talk it out and you know put some kind of like Common Sense around how I feel about all of these things so this this is helpful for me but I hope it's helpful for you as well because this is all sort of the cumulative knowledge and and data of someone who's been doing this for a long time and still at times struggles so I'm always trying to kind of find the answer and find the PATH right so if I go off path I try self-correct quickly and I tell this to my kids all the time there's a Bernstein Bear book um about Brother Bear he's you know gets sick which you know that's not his fault but anyways he misses homework he doesn't do his school work for a few days goes into school and Pop Quiz in math and he FL he fails it he gets an f and anyways he he go he kind of spirals he skipped school the next day now he doesn't go to school now he's getting in trouble right and at the end of the book we learn that it's never too late to correct a mistake and I think that that's important because it's easy when you start to spiral start to go on a bad path like it's like how could I just like I wish this was like a game where I could just reload to my last saved point before I made all of those mistakes and in a sense you can because reloading to that save point while it may not put you back to that place of that dollar amount you can go back to the strategy you were trading and put yourself back in that mindset of discipline and if you could do that then you've already made back all the losses that's the thing there's that expression that uh all the Lo all the profit is there in the market you just have to go pick it up so you're going to take another 100 trades and you can either choose that those next 100 trades are going to be on the path of your strategy traded with discipline a quality setups or you can take 100 trades that are just grasping at straws where do you think you're going to be at the end of grasping for straws continued spiral continued losses blown up account or you you can self-correct so self-correcting requires a very high level of emotional awareness and discipline so what I was doing last night and this morning before trading was guided meditations right here on YouTube for discipline so you just do a guided meditation discipline 10 15 minute long uh there there was one I don't remember the name of it but anyways you'll find it if you want it um it was like 15 minutes long just do that a couple times just try to remind yourself this is my this is my ticket to success my ticket to success is discipline that is number one now obviously you need to have strategy you need to know how to find the right stocks to trade all you you have to have all of that first I mean I'll say that so trading is two parts it's strategy and then discipline so if you're looking for the strategy I'll put a link down in the description where you can download um you can do a week trial at where you're trading so you can watch over my shoulder for the next two weeks you can also watch my free intro class intro to-day trading where I walk you through my strategy and I'll give you guys all a copy of um my book how to day trade the plain truth so everyone that um watches that free intro class gets a copy that they can download so you can download this and then um yeah so I hope you do one of those two things and then when it comes to discipline I'll just keep sharing with you the tips and tricks that help me but discipline is a muscle and you got to strengthen it and it's it's not like learning to tie your shoes or ride your bike that once you've got it you've got it forever discipline is something you need to constantly work on and you'll see uh all all Traders at times struggle with it and you know look even even billionaire investors will make mistakes you talk you listen to Bill acman talk about um one of the biggest losses he ever had on Valiant pharmaceutical he lost something like4 billion doar and he talks about how he was going through a period in his life where I think he was questioning his marriage he was contemplating a divorce and you know all this stuff was all happening so you know all of those things that are on the periphery can come back in to your trading so if some of that stuff you know anything like that's going on then that's another level of awareness that like okay my threshold is going to be lower that trigger threshold that's going to be that trigger threshold is going to be even lower on a day when you're emotionally charged up from something else so I hope this has been a really helpful episode grateful for the Green Day $1,432 70 live to trade another day I'll be back at it tomorrow uh and I'll try to finish off the week Thursday and Friday with discipline you know at the sort of front of my mind all right thanks as always for tuning in and I'll see you guys back at tomorrow and I'll remind you trading is risky my results aren't typical so manage your risk take it slow practice this simulator before you trade real money and I hope to see you guys at Warrior trading for a twoe trial real soon all right see you guys soon"
By Ross Cameron - Warrior Trading | October 9, 2024 | Pending
From video
Big Winner on Breaking News #daytrading 00:00:39 - 00:03:01
Interpreted Prediction
The speaker predicts they will lose money if they trade outside the window of 7 AM to 10 AM.

Prediction Details

Topic
Trading Time Window

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