ilmscore | Prediction Details
"when Once the unemployment rate goes above that 24mon moving average with the exception of 1967 it tends to keep going up right... it's also seeming like instead of coming back down it's getting another Spike up higher from where it previously was so again I you know I'm I'm sort of saying that the unemployment rate is you know it's moving up historically once it crosses that 24mon SMA while it might hesitate a little bit it tends to keep on moving higher with the exception of 19 67 where it moved to 4% and then it moved back down to to um to 3.4% and when it moved back down to 3.4% um that was actually where the S&P topped out so there's one example of a soft Landing but even in that case it still eventually became a hard Landing um it's just that the hard Landing was was delayed by basically another year so I think it's important to sort of keep that idea in mind it's possible that it plays out like 1967 but you can see out of all the other examples once it crossed that 24mon moving average it it essentially just kept on climbing and and it sort of looks like that's what it could do again"
By Benjamin Cowen | March 10, 2024 | Pending
From video
The Labor Market 00:17:45 - 00:19:17
Interpreted Prediction
The US unemployment rate, having risen above its 24-month simple moving average, is expected to continue climbing, consistent with most historical cycles, suggesting an eventual hard landing for the economy.

Prediction Details

Topic
US Labor Market / Economy

Comments

Be the first to share your thoughts.

Like this prediction?

Join to make your opinion count.