Interpreted Prediction
Predicted a sequence of macroeconomic events: a Federal Reserve pause will lead to a manipulated market run to all-time highs, followed by a deflationary bust and the strongest recession ever.
AI Evaluation Notes
The Federal Reserve did pause interest rate hikes after the prediction was made, and the stock market (S&P 500 and Dow Jones) subsequently reached multiple all-time highs in 2024. However, the predicted 'deflationary bust' and 'strongest recession ever' have not materialized; inflation remains positive (disinflation, not deflation), and the U.S. economy is considered stable with a low risk of recession.
Prediction Details
Topic
Target
Fed pause leads to manipulated market run to all-time highs, followed by a deflationary bust and the strongest recession ever
Predicted
date
following a Federal Reserve pause