Interpreted Prediction
The market predicted a 98% chance that interest rates would remain between 5.25% and 5.2% on 2024-03-20.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction stated that the market expected interest rates to remain between 5.25% and 5.2% on March 20, 2024. On that date, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its policy rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. While the lower end of the actual rate range (5.25%) matched the upper end of the predicted range, the actual upper end (5.5%) exceeded the predicted range.