ilmscore | Prediction Details
By The Trading Channel (The Trading Channel) | January 27, 2024 | Correct
Interpreted Prediction
Predicted that a strategy with a 50% win rate is very likely to experience a losing streak of 7 to 10 trades in a row at some point over 100 trades.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction states that a strategy with a 50% win rate is very likely to experience a losing streak of 7 to 10 trades in a row over 100 trades. Statistical calculations indicate that the expected longest losing streak for 100 trials with a 50% win rate is approximately 6.64 trades. This suggests that experiencing a streak of 7 or more losses is highly probable. While a 10-trade losing streak is less common than a 7-trade streak, its inclusion within the '7 to 10' range acknowledges the natural variability in probabilistic outcomes, making the overall statement 'very likely' to be statistically sound.

Prediction Details

Target
Experience 7 to 10 losses in a row
Predicted date
Over 100 trades

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