Interpreted Prediction
Predicted increased market volatility around the US election in late 2024.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction anticipated increased market volatility around the US election in late 2024. However, immediately following the election, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) decreased significantly. The VIX Index fell by nearly 8 points, or 34%, in the first week of November 2024, ending the month around 13.50, which was almost 10 points lower than its level on October 31st. This indicates a decrease, rather than an increase, in market volatility during the specified timeframe.
Prediction Details
Topic
Target
Increased market volatility
Predicted
date
Around the US election (late 2024)