Interpreted Prediction
Predicted that traders using momentum strategies without adapting to current or lower volatility market conditions will continue to experience losses.
AI Evaluation Notes
Evidence from 2024 and 2025 indicates that momentum strategies have been underperforming, with one report detailing a significant slump of -31.8% that remained unrecovered as of August 2025. This aligns with the prediction that traders using unadapted momentum strategies in low or current volatility conditions would continue to experience losses.
Prediction Details
Topic
Target
Traders who don't adapt their momentum strategies to lower volatility will continue to lose money.
Predicted
date
Ongoing / Future (as long as they don't adapt)