Economy & Stock Market

The effects of government layoffs and reduced spending, along with secondary layoffs, will start appearing in economic data over the next few months. The full impact of tariff implementation will be visible by April-May 2025, with inflation consequences in the summer. Without strong economic stimulus, stocks are unlikely to rebound and may trade sideways at best.

If inflation remains very sticky, it risks higher interest rates for longer, potentially leading to a bad recession and significant problems for the stock market.