Published: 2023-06-12
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The stock market expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes this week after 15 months of increases.
"the stock market is predicting that this week the Federal Reserve is about to stop raising interest rates for the first time in the last 15 months"
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Following a pause in interest rate hikes, the stock market is predicted to increase and enter a bull run.
"because of that the stock market is expected to go up and potentially go on another bull run"
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The upcoming inflation data release this week is expected to be lower than the previous 4.9% reading.
"on Tuesday this week we're going to get the latest inflation data which will probably be lower than our last reading of 4.9 percent"
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True inflation may be closer to 2.7%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's target of 2-3%.
"the true inflation rate could actually be closer to 2.7 percent According to trueflation which is exactly where the FED wants to be between two to three percent"
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Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14.8% growth in the 12 months following the end of rate hike cycles.
"out of the last 11 rate hike cycles that we've had the S P 500 has grown by an average of 14.8 percent"
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Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14.8% gain in the 12 months following the end of a rate hike cycle.
"out of the last 11 rate hike cycles that we've had the S P 500 has grown by an average of 14.8 percent and analysts are specifically referring to the 12 months that follow the end of said rate hike cycle"
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The stock market is pricing in a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate decrease in November and a 90% chance in December.
"by November the stock market is pricing in a 70 chance that the FED will finally decrease and by December the odds go up to a massive 90 chance"
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On average, the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes for 10 months before initiating rate cuts.
"the FED has paused for an average of 10 months before the First Rate cut cycle"
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Following a potential pause in rate hikes this week, the Federal Reserve might begin lowering interest rates in approximately 10 months.
"once we pause which will potentially happen this Tuesday slash Wednesday that 10 months from this week the FED could start to lower interest rates"
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If the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes for at least 12 months, historical data suggests a reasonable chance of making money in the stock market.
"if the FED does pause and it pauses at least for the next 12 months then based on our past data we should expect a reasonable chance to make some money in the stock market at least on paper"
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True inflation may be closer to 2.7%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's target of 2-3%.
"the true inflation rate could actually be closer to 2.7 percent According to trueflation which is exactly where the FED wants to be between two to three percent"
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The stock market anticipates a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve decreasing interest rates by November.
"by November the stock market is pricing in a 70 chance that the FED will finally decrease"
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By December, the market expects a 90% chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates.
"by December the odds go up to a massive 90 chance"
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Historically, the Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes for an average of 10 months before initiating rate cuts.
"the FED has paused for an average of 10 months before the First Rate cut cycle"
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If the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes for at least 12 months, historical data suggests a good probability of making money in the stock market.
"if the FED does pause and it pauses at least for the next 12 months then based on our past data we should expect a reasonable chance to make some money in the stock market at least on paper"
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There is a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate at 5-5.25% this week.
"there's about a 70 chance that this week the rate will stay exactly the same 5 to 5.25"
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There is a 33% chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25% this week.
"there's a one in three chance right now that this week the Federal Reserve will raise their interest rates by a quarter percent"
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