What Happens When the Last Bitcoin is Mined? Explained
Published: 2025-01-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-01-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker initially presents the common belief that transaction fees will incentivize miners after the last BTC is mined, but later questions its sufficiency.
"Bitcoin will continue chugging along because the transaction fees will be enough to incentivize miners to keep adding new blocks with transactions because bitcoin's use will keep increasing."
Pending
A significant portion of Bitcoin (99%) will be mined by 2032, suggesting potential issues for the network in the near future.
"Bitcoin could start facing issues as soon as the next decade fewer than 10 years from now that's because 99% of all BTC will have been mined by 2032."
Pending
The cost to mine Bitcoin is inversely related to the amount of mining activity due to the difficulty adjustment.
"The cost of mining BTC changes depending on how much Bitcoin mining there is going on if there's lots of Bitcoin mining then the cost of mining will increase and if there's less Bitcoin mining the cost of mining will decrease."
Pending
Miners with near-zero operational costs are likely to continue mining Bitcoin as long as it retains any value, regardless of revenue decline.
"Bitcoin miners who have very low operational costs... would still be in the green and would therefore have no reason to stop mining so long as BTC continues to have value."
Pending
Several countries, including Russia, Iran, and potentially China, are reported to be engaging with Bitcoin for international trade and mining.
"Countries like Russia... Iran has reportedly been doing the same for years and it's even possible that China has as well given that most Bitcoin mining reportedly continues to come from from China."
Pending
Nations utilizing Bitcoin for trade or as reserves are predicted to establish their own mining operations and nodes to ensure network neutrality.
"Countries using BTC for trade or holding BTC as reserves... will start up their own mining operations and spinning up their own Bitcoin nodes."
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Widespread adoption by nation-states is predicted to be necessary by the end of the current decade to secure the Bitcoin blockchain's future, especially concerning the 2028 halving.
"Bitcoin needs to secure widespread nation state adoption by the end of this decade to ensure that there are enough incentives to keep supporting its blockchain past the next harving."
Pending
The 2028 Bitcoin halving is predicted to significantly impact miners, effectively doubling their mining costs under current conditions.
"The next Bitcoin harving is in 2028 and it's going to be brutal for BTC miners that's just because the cost of mining BTC will double all else being equal."
Pending
For the majority of Bitcoin miners to remain profitable after the 2028 halving, BTC's price would need to be between $140,000 and $180,000.
"This means that btc's price would need to stay above 140 to $180,000 for most miners to stay profitable."
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Energy prices are predicted to rise significantly by the end of the decade, driven by AI demand and economic growth in emerging economies.
"Energy prices will start spiking by the end of the decade due to power demands coming from Technologies like AI and the growth of the middle class in countries like India."
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Governments might intervene to halt Bitcoin mining if energy demands strain resources, prioritizing other uses.
"It could also result in government stepping in to stop Bitcoin mining so that energy can be used elsewhere."
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The primary threats to Bitcoin are identified as a surge in energy prices and insufficient nation-state adoption, rather than its eventual supply limit or reliance on transaction fees.
"The risk that energy prices will spike in the coming years and the risk that countries won't adopt bitcoin fast enough are objectively bigger threats to bitcoin than when the last BTC will be mined or when miners will have to start relying mostly on transaction fees for Revenue."
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A combination of rising energy prices and insufficient national adoption could lead to Bitcoin collapsing to zero by the end of the decade.
"A spike in Energy prices Andor a lack of Bitcoin adoption by nation states could mean that BTC collapses to Zero by the end of the decade."
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Favorable conditions of low energy prices and increased nation-state adoption could elevate Bitcoin's market cap to that of gold in the near future.
"Low energy prices combined with Rising nation state adoption could make BTC as big as gold by market cap in the coming years."
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A market capitalization of $18 trillion for Bitcoin would result in an individual BTC price of approximately $1 million.
"Bitcoin hitting a market cap of $18 trillion would translate to a BTC price of around $1 million."
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