When To Sell Crypto?? Market Indicators You Have To Watch!!
Published: 2025-01-24
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-01-24
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The approval of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could mark the cycle top for Bitcoin.
"The elephant in the room in this regard is the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve which could potentially Mark the cycle top for BTC when it's approved"
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Bitcoin's price movements are more closely correlated with large-cap stock indices like the S&P 500.
"Bitcoin seems to be more highly correlated to stock market indices with larger stocks such as the S&P 500"
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The speaker implies Bitcoin's performance is linked to global liquidity, leading into a discussion on measuring it.
"The more you know now this begs the question of how to measure Global liquidity"
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The approval of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is predicted to potentially signal the cycle top for Bitcoin.
"The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve which could potentially Mark the cycle top for BTC when it's approved"
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The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is identified as a likely catalyst for a major market event, potentially a cycle top.
"The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or something along those lines seems like the most likely candidate for the time being."
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MicroStrategy reaching a new all-time high is seen as a harbinger of the most bullish phase of the current cycle.
"micro strategy recently hit another all-time high just like that foreshadowing the start of the most bullish phase yet"
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The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is predicted to be a major catalyst that could mark the crypto market cycle top.
"The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or something along those lines seems like the most likely candidate for the time being."
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Altcoin season is predicted to begin in the coming weeks and last for several months.
"both suggest that El season hasn't even started yet but that it could start in the coming weeks and last for many months"
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Approval of Bitcoin Futures ETFs and CME Futures historically preceded crypto market cycle tops by a few weeks.
"the approval of the Bitcoin Futures ETFs in late 2021 was one example of this uh the approval of the CME Futures in late 2017 was another both happened within weeks of BTC and crypto hitting their cycle tops"
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The 2025 crypto bull market is predicted to be larger than the 2021 bull market.
"not sure who needs to hear it but the 2025 crypto bull market will probably be bigger than the 2021 Crypt bull market"
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The US president is launching their own DeFi protocol.
"The US president is literally launching his own defi protocol"
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The Trump administration's agenda includes plans that are favorable to cryptocurrency.
"Trump's agenda is packed with Pro crypto plans"
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Tariffs under a potential Trump administration could negatively impact large companies, while deregulation could benefit small companies.
"the Trump administration's plans to implement tariffs which could hurt the profits of large companies and reduce the regulations and resore which should boost the profits of small companies"
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There's a possibility that crypto, including Bitcoin, could decouple from large-cap and small-cap stocks.
"it's possible keyword possible that we could see a decoupling between large cap stocks and small cap stocks and crypto in including Bitcoin"
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Altcoins show a strong correlation with the Russell 2000 index.
"altcoins appear to be very highly correlated to the Russell 2000"
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Parabolic rallies in altcoin niches due to bullish catalysts, such as GTA 6 integrating crypto, could signal a market top.
"if altcoins in these niches are going parabolic because some bullish Catalyst like I don't know GTA 6 introducing crypto features then chances are it's the top in"
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A strong indicator of a market top is when investors are extremely bullish, convinced prices will continue to rise indefinitely, and this sentiment is widespread.
"you'll know it's time to sell when you're in so much profit that you're feeling so bullish and you're convinced that it will just keep going higher and you also notice that almost everyone feels the same way"
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The price movements in assets like stocks, crypto, and real estate are primarily driven by changes in the money supply.
"most of the price action we see in assets like stocks crypto and even real estate are fundamentally just a reflection of the money supply growing or shrinking"
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The Global Liquidity Indicator from Bitcoin Magazine Pro shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin's price.
"one of these is the global liquidity indicator provided by Bitcoin magazine Pro as you can see it's almost perfectly correlated to bitcoin's price"
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Rising and high global liquidity is suggested as an indicator that a market top may be approaching.
"if Global liquidity is high and Rising then that's just one of the many signs that suggests the market top is close"
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The Pi Cycle Top indicator is presented as highly accurate for predicting crypto market tops.
"the P Cycle top is incredibly accurate when it comes to predicting crypto Market tops"
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The Bull Market Support Band is stated to have a history of accurately predicting previous crypto market tops.
"the bull market support band has also been accurate in predicting past crypto Market tops"
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Onchain indicators discussed in the video are available on the Glassnode website.
"all these indicators can be found on the glass node website"
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An increase in Hoddle Waves indicates more long-term held Bitcoin supply is moving, suggesting profit-taking and potential local tops.
"the bigger the hoddle waves the more that the longer term hold BTC Supply is moving logically if lots of BTC that's been held for a long period of time is moving this suggests that lots of people are taking profits and this tends to correlate to local tops"
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A green NUPL indicator suggests many Bitcoin holders are in profit, which typically occurs around market tops.
"when the indicator is in the green this suggests that lots of BTC holders are sitting on unrealized profits and this tends to happen around the tops"
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The MVRV Z-score for Bitcoin is currently not at levels that have historically indicated crypto market tops.
"the mvrv Z score is nowhere close to hitting levels that have historically corresponded to crypto Market tops at least for Bitcoin"
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The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 indices tend to peak around the same time as the crypto market.
"the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 all have a history of top in around the same time as the crypto Market"
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Both the 'others' altcoin market cap indicator and the Russell 2000 suggest that altcoin season has not yet begun but is expected to start soon and continue for an extended period.
"The 'others' indicator, representing the combined market cap of altcoins outside the top 10, is the mirror image of the Russell 2000, both suggesting that Alt season hasn't even started yet but that it could start in the coming weeks and last for many months."
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Catalysts that create a strong sense of euphoria and the belief in perpetual growth are typical around crypto market cycle tops.
"these tend to be the exact kinds of catalysts that happen around the cycle tops precisely because they make you feel like you never want to sell and it's going to keep going up only forever"
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Sentiment analysis is presented as the fifth indicator, and its importance is highlighted in relation to Trump's policies and altcoin season.
"so consistent with Trump's policies this brings me to the fifth and final indicator and that's sentiment"
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Sentiment analysis is particularly effective in identifying cycle tops for specific altcoin categories like gaming and DeFi.
"sentiment analysis is the most helpful in identifying the cycle tops for Al coins especially categories of altcoins such as gamey defy etc etc"
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The approval of Bitcoin Futures ETFs in 2021 and CME Futures in 2017 both occurred shortly before the crypto market cycle tops.
"The approval of the Bitcoin Futures ETFs in late 2021 was one example of this uh the approval of the CME Futures in late 2017 was another both happened within weeks of BTC and crypto hitting their cycle tops"
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The current US president is launching their own decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol.
"The US president is literally launching his own defi protocol"
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The current state of global liquidity is noted as being high and increasing.
"Global liquidity is high and Rising"
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Altcoins demonstrate a strong correlation with the performance of the Russell 2000 index.
"for altcoins they appear to be very highly correlated to the Russell 2000"
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The crypto bull market of 2025 is predicted to surpass the scale of the 2021 bull market.
"the 2025 crypto bull market will probably be bigger than the 2021 Crypt bull market"
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The approval of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve might signal the Bitcoin cycle top and potentially initiate a super cycle.
"The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve which could potentially Mark the cycle top for BTC when it's approved Some would argue that this is something that would trigger the start of the super cycle"
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Bitcoin shows higher correlation with large-cap stock indices (S&P 500), while altcoins correlate more with small-cap indices (Russell 2000).
"Bitcoin seems to be more highly correlated to stock market indices with larger stocks such as the S&P 500 whereas altcoins seem to be more highly correlated to stock market indices with smaller stocks such as the Russell 2000"
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A key element of Trump's pro-crypto agenda is the proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
"Trump's agenda is packed with Pro crypto plans The most notable of which is the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve"
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The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is expected to boost attention and investment in crypto, facilitating access to altcoins through ETFs for large capital pools.
"These will not only attract lots of attention and investment to crypto but also make it much easier for large pools of capital to to get access to things like altcoins via ETFs and the like"
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A potential outcome of policy changes could be a decoupling of crypto from major stock market movements.
"The Practical effect of this is that it could be that crypto decouples from major stocks"
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If crypto decouples from major stocks, this event could serve as the narrative driving a rally towards cycle tops.
"If this happens then chances are that it will become the narrative that triggers the rally to the cycle tops"
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The idea of crypto decoupling from other assets is a long-held investor dream, associated with the concept of a crypto super cycle.
"The narrative that crypto could someday decouple from other assets is one that many crypto investers have dreamed of because it goes hand inhand with the idea that crypto will enter a super cycle"
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A decoupling of crypto from stocks, if it occurs, would likely signal that a cycle top is imminent.
"If it does then I'll reiterate that it will likely be an indicator that the cycle top is close"
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If crypto remains correlated with major stocks, monitoring stock market indices and specific stocks will be crucial for identifying a potential crypto market top.
"if crypto continues to be highly correlated to Major stocks then it's safe to say that we will need to watch the major indices as well as specific stocks closely to get a sense of if the crypto Market top could be in"
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Elon Musk's announcement of selling Tesla shares is identified as a potential catalyst for the late 2021 crypto cycle top.
"in retrospect uh the Catalyst for the late 2021 cycle top appears to have been Elon Musk announcing that he was going to sell Tesla shares after he put it up for a vote"
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The 'others' indicator (altcoins outside top 10) mirrors the Russell 2000, indicating that altcoin season has not yet begun but is expected to start soon and last for several months.
"The 'others' which is the combined market cap of all the altcoins outside of the top 10 it is the mirror image of the Russell 2000 Both suggest that El season hasn't even started yet but that it could start in the coming weeks and last for many months"
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Google Trends for altcoins can indicate an approaching market top if search interest begins to rise parabolically.
"Google search Trends is the easiest to use all you need to do is check the search trends for your favorite altcoin over the last year and if it starting to go parabolic chances are the top is coming"
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Viewership on major crypto YouTube channels is significantly lower than in 2021, suggesting less market euphoria.
"The number of views on major crypto YouTube channels is still nowhere close to where it was in 2021"
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The 2025 crypto bull market is anticipated to be larger than the bull market of 2021.
"The 2025 crypto bull market will probably be bigger than the 2021 Crypt bull market"
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Parabolic price movements in niche altcoins, potentially driven by catalysts like GTA 6 incorporating crypto features, could signal a market top.
"if altcoins in these niches are going parabolic because some bullish Catalyst like I don't know GTA 6 introducing crypto features then chances are it's the top in"
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Identifying the catalyst that sparks peak FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is crucial for pinpointing a crypto cycle top.
"The key thing to look out for is catalysts The trigger that causes the fomo in its apex"
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Approvals of Bitcoin Futures ETFs (2021) and CME Futures (2017) were historically followed by crypto market cycle tops within weeks.
"The approval of the Bitcoin Futures ETFs in late 2021 was one example of this uh the approval of the CME Futures in late 2017 was another both happened within weeks of BTC and crypto hitting their cycle tops"
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Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs did not mark the cycle top, a larger, more significant catalyst is expected to drive peak FOMO in the crypto market.
"Given that the spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved a year ago and that was evidently not the cycle top This means there must be another bigger Catalyst that causes peak fomo in the crypto Market"
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