Federal Reserve vs. Trump: Who Controls Interest Rates?

"Keeping real GDP around 3% will be the easiest to achieve, that's because the Trump Administration is rapidly cutting regulations which should increase economic growth."

"The result is that you will have tens possibly even hundreds of thousands of Americans who have doubled the spending power and this is where the second thing comes in and that's that 70% of US GDP is consumption and it goes without saying that people with two income streams will consume more and this will boost GDP."

"History suggests that these tariffs could actually have the opposite effect deflation and this is what happened when Trump last levied tariffs in 2019."

"Importing large amounts of dirt cheap oil from countries like Russia has the same effect lowering the cost of energy which will lower inflation across the board."

"If Trump and his team manage to lower the yields on long-term us treasuries, the result could be a massive rally in the markets."

"Lowering annual budget deficits to 3% of GDP will be much harder to put things into perspective the annual budget deficit is a currently around 6.3% of GDP."

"The ongoing implementation of the 33 33 plan could be bullish for the markets just because of the effects this will have on the supply and demand for bonds there will be less Supply from the treasury due to the debt sealing more demand from the FED due to the reduction or cessation of QT and possibly more demand from domestic and foreign investors as we've learned this restriction in Supply and the increase in demand would cause bond prices to rise lowering their yields and lowering long-term interest rates by extension."

"The most bullish scenario for the markets would be for the plan to succeed before the debt seiling is raised again."

"The same is true if the debt ceiling was raised before the plan succeeded as it would result in a greater supply of bonds relative to the demand raising yields and so on also bearish."