Can Trump Take Over the Fed? Powell’s Job on the Line!
Published: 2025-04-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-04-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair is set to end next May, allowing Trump to appoint a successor with minimal disruption approximately a year from now.
"Pal's term ends next May uh this means that Trump will be able to appoint whoever he wants to the Fed with minimal disruption in about a year's time"
Pending
Despite recent statements from Trump indicating no intention to fire Jerome Powell, this situation is described as potentially subject to rapid change.
"Trump came out and said he has no intentions of firing Jerome but uh this is something that could change again in a heartbeat"
Pending
A Supreme Court ruling favoring Trump's appeal on firing federal employees could lead to market volatility and damage the US legal system's integrity due to speculation about Trump controlling the Fed.
"The Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump's appeal would not only cause enormous volatility in the markets as investors would speculate that Trump would use this power to take control of the Fed but it would also call the integrity of the US legal system into question which would do enormous damage to the US"
Pending
The erosion of Federal Reserve independence is presented as an inevitable historical process, accelerated by global crises, with WWI, the Great Depression, and WWII being key historical milestones, and 2008 and 2020 being the first two steps in the current century.
"history suggests that the process is inevitable and will be accelerated by global crises and global conflicts 100 years ago World War I the Great Depression and World War II were the three steps that caused the Fed to lose its independence in this century 2008 seems to have been the first step towards the Fed losing its independence and 2020 was the second step"
Pending
It is predicted that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to print trillions of dollars to finance government spending, a trend that has potentially already begun, leading to significant capital misallocation.
"the Fed will eventually be forced to print money to finance whatever it is that the government wants to spend money on be it ideology or infrastructure and this is the truly terrifying outcome because it's one wherein tens if not hundreds of trillions of dollars will be printed and misallocated a trend that some would say has already begun"
Pending
Rampant inflation is predicted to cause all assets to rise in fiat terms, but only truly scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin will gain value in real terms.
"The result would be rampant inflation where any asset that's scarce relative to the money supply would rise in fiat terms that would be literally everything but only truly scarce assets would gain value in real terms in this context that means gold Bitcoin and any other digital or physical commodity that's recognized by investors as a store of value"
Pending
Severe supply shortages are predicted to cause economic struggle and unprecedented stagflation, with the assertion that this trend may have already started.
"The economy would struggle due to these shortages of critical supplies this would create a degree of stagflation that we've never seen before and some would say that this has also already begun"
Pending
Recent volatility in the US bond market raises questions about the Federal Reserve's potential responsibility for it.
"we've seen no shortage of US bond market volatility in recent weeks and this begs the question of whether the Fed is in any way responsible for this bond market volatility"
Pending
The continued strong demand for new US bond sales, despite broader market volatility, suggests that this volatility is politically motivated rather than economically driven.
"the fact that there are suggests that the broader bond market volatility is political and not economic in nature"
Pending
Recent US bond market volatility is attributed to 'bond vigilantes' aiming to pressure Trump into reversing his tariff policies.
"the recent bond market volatility is being caused by bond vigilantes and that their purpose is to try and force Trump to roll back his policies namely his tariffs"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's continued high interest rates and balance sheet reduction are suggested as potential contributors to observed bond market volatility.
"the Fed has continued to keep rates high and reduce the size of its balance sheet both of which could be contributing to the bond volatility that we've seen"
Pending
The Federal Reserve justifies its tight monetary policy as a necessary measure to combat inflation, which remains above its 2% target.
"the Fed can and has argued that its tight monetary policy is necessary to combat inflation which continues to be above the Fed's 2% target"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's independence implies that its interest rate decisions should be based on economic factors like inflation and unemployment, not on accommodating US government spending.
"the Fed is supposed to be independent of the government in practical terms this means that the Fed is supposed to change interest rates depending on economic conditions like inflation and unemployment rather than to accommodate US government spending"
Pending
The independence of the Federal Reserve has been diminishing since 2008.
"the independence of the Fed has been on the decline since 2008"
Pending
Upon its founding in 1913, the Federal Reserve was controlled by the US government, to the extent that it did not even possess its own building.
"when the Fed was first founded back in 1913 it was controlled by the US government to the extent that the Fed didn't even have its own building"
Pending
Full Federal Reserve independence was reportedly achieved with the appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed chair in 1979.
"true Fed independence was only achieved with the appointment of Paul Vulkar as the Fed chair in 1979"
Pending
In the event of a crisis, it is probable that Jerome Powell would be fired, leading to a market crash.
"the Fed would likely fire Pal in the event of a crisis and chances are that markets would be crashing because of this crisis"
Pending
The Federal Reserve has been gradually losing its independence since 2008 but has consistently demonstrated its willingness to intervene and stabilize bond markets when necessary.
"the Fed has been slowly losing its independence since 2008 and has repeatedly proven that it would step in to stabilize the bond markets if need be"
Pending
Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the Federal Reserve would intervene to stabilize the bond market during recent periods of volatility if required.
"Boston Fed President Susan Collins announced that the Fed would step in to stabilize the bond market during the recent volatility if it had to"
Pending
Trump may not need to fire Jerome Powell to achieve his goals with the Federal Reserve, as he would likely only do so if other methods proved unsuccessful.
"Trump doesn't need to fire Pal to get what he wants from the Fed and the only reason he would fire Pal was if he couldn't get what he wanted from the Fed by other means"
Pending
It is predicted that the Fed will eventually print trillions of dollars to finance government spending, leading to a terrifying outcome of widespread capital misallocation.
"The answer is also something we mentioned in our video about bond vigilantes last summer and that's that the Fed will eventually be forced to print money to finance whatever it is that the government wants to spend money on be it ideology or infrastructure and this is the truly terrifying outcome because it's one wherein tens if not hundreds of trillions of dollars will be printed and misallocated"
Pending
Trump could have legal grounds to fire Jerome Powell and FOMC members if they fail to meet the Fed's mandate of approximately 4% unemployment and 2% inflation, particularly if unemployment rises above 4% and inflation falls below 2% without the Fed easing policy.
"Trump could theoretically fire Pal and other members of the FOMC if they fail to act in accordance with the Fed's mandate..."
Pending
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on an appeal regarding the president's ability to fire federal agency officials without cause in June or July.
"Trump has asked the Supreme Court to consider the appeal in May and this would reportedly result in a ruling on the appeal in June or July."
Pending
The independence of the Federal Reserve has been declining since the 2008 financial crisis, marking the beginning of the end of its independence, according to a paper from the Richmond Fed.
"Fed independence has been eroding since 2008 and that's what the paper from the Richmond Fed warned the 2008 financial crisis was the beginning of the end of Fed independence."
Pending
True Federal Reserve independence was achieved with the appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed chair in 1979, following decades of the Fed being government-controlled.
"According to the Richmond Fed paper, it took decades for the Fed to become independent with the author arguing that true Fed independence was only achieved with the appointment of Paul Vulkar as the Fed chair in 1979."
Pending
The loss of Federal Reserve independence is an inevitable process, accelerated by global crises and conflicts. WWI, the Great Depression, and WWII caused this in the past century. In this century, 2008 was the first step, and 2020 was the second step.
"history suggests that the process is inevitable and will be accelerated by global crises and global conflicts 100 years ago World War I the Great Depression and World War II were the three steps that caused the Fed to lose its independence in this century 2008 seems to have been the first step towards the Fed losing its independence and 2020 was the second step."
Pending
When the Federal Reserve completely loses its independence, it will be forced to print money to finance government spending, potentially leading to trillions of dollars being printed and misallocated.
"the Fed will eventually be forced to print money to finance whatever it is that the government wants to spend money on be it ideology or infrastructure and this is the truly terrifying outcome because it's one wherein tens if not hundreds of trillions of dollars will be printed and misallocated."
Pending
Rampant inflation will cause assets scarce relative to the money supply to rise in fiat terms. Truly scarce assets like gold, Bitcoin, and other recognized stores of value will gain value in real terms.
"The result would be rampant inflation where any asset that's scarce relative to the money supply would rise in fiat terms that would be literally everything but only truly scarce assets would gain value in real terms in this context that means gold Bitcoin and any other digital or physical commodity that's recognized by investors as a store of value."
Pending
Severe capital misallocation could lead to supply shortages so significant that goods are unaffordable even with money. This, combined with economic struggles from critical supply shortages, will result in unprecedented stagflation.
"if the misallocation of capital is bad enough then there could also seriously be supply shortages so much so that you won't be able to buy what you need even if you have the money at the same time the economy would struggle due to these shortages of critical supplies this would create a degree of stagflation that we've never seen before."
Pending
Rampant inflation driven by money printing will cause scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin to rise in fiat terms and gain real value.
"The result would be rampant inflation where any asset that's scarce relative to the money supply would rise in fiat terms that would be literally everything but only truly scarce assets would gain value in real terms in this context that means gold Bitcoin and any other digital or physical commodity that's recognized by investors as a store of value"
Pending
Jerome Powell's term ends next May, allowing Trump to appoint his successor to the Federal Reserve with minimal disruption within approximately a year.
"Pal's term ends next May uh this means that Trump will be able to appoint whoever he wants to the Fed with minimal disruption in about a year's time"
Pending
The 2008 financial crisis marked the beginning of the end of the Federal Reserve's independence.
"And that's what the paper from the Richmond Fed warned the 2008 financial crisis was the beginning of the end of Fed independence."
Pending
The erosion of Fed independence is an inevitable, cyclical process accelerated by global crises, with 2008 and 2020 being significant steps in this century.
"history suggests that the process is inevitable and will be accelerated by global crises and global conflicts 100 years ago World War I the Great Depression and World War II were the three steps that caused the Fed to lose its independence in this century 2008 seems to have been the first step towards the Fed losing its independence and 2020 was the second step"
Pending
The combination of supply shortages and economic struggles will lead to unprecedented levels of stagflation, a trend that may have already begun.
"This would create a degree of stagflation that we've never seen before and some would say that this has also already begun"
Pending
A favorable Supreme Court ruling for Trump's appeal regarding firing federal agency officials could cause significant market volatility and damage the US legal system's integrity.
"The Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump's appeal would not only cause enormous volatility in the markets as investors would speculate that Trump would use this power to take control of the Fed but it would also call the integrity of the US legal system into question which would do enormous damage to the US"
Pending
There's an argument that the Fed should consider how its policy decisions might affect the 2020 election outcome, as Trump's re-election could pose a threat to the economy and the Fed's independence.
"There's even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed's purview after all Trump's re-election arguably presents a threat to the US and global economy to the Fed's independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives if the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020"
Pending
If unemployment rises or inflation falls and the Fed does not ease policy, Trump could have legal grounds to fire Jerome Powell and other FOMC members, arguing they are acting politically.
"The fact that unemployment continues to rise and or inflation continues to fall and the Fed refuses to ease monetary policy in response this could be concrete evidence that Fed officials are acting politically and would theoretically give Trump enough legal grounds to fire Pal and all members of the FOMC"
Pending
Recent US bond market volatility raises questions about the Federal Reserve's potential role in it.
"lo and behold we've seen no shortage of US bond market volatility in recent weeks and this begs the question of whether the Fed is in any way responsible for this bond market volatility"
Pending
The continued strong demand for new US bond sales, despite broader market volatility, suggests the volatility is politically motivated rather than economically driven.
"The fact that there are suggests that the broader bond market volatility is political and not economic in nature"
Pending
The calming of bond market volatility after a populist party scaled back proposals indicates the action of bond vigilantes.
"The fact that the bond market volatility calmed down after the populist party rolled back many of their proposals was evidence of bond vigilantes in action"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's continued high interest rates and balance sheet reduction may be contributing to observed bond market volatility.
"the Fed has continued to keep rates high and reduce the size of its balance sheet both of which could be contributing to the bond volatility that we've seen"
Pending
The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the appeal concerning the firing of federal agency officials in June or July, following its consideration in May.
"trump has asked the Supreme Court to consider the appeal in May and this would reportedly result in a ruling on the appeal in June or July"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's mandate is to maintain unemployment around 4% and inflation around 2%.
"the Fed's mandate is keeping unemployment around 4% and inflation around 2%"
Pending
The erosion of Federal Reserve independence since 2008 indicates a multi-decade process of the US government potentially gaining more control over the Fed.
"when you realize that Fed independence has been eroding since 2008 you understand that the US government taking control of the Fed has also been a multi-deade process"
Pending
Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the Federal Reserve would intervene to stabilize the bond market if necessary during periods of volatility.
"Boston Fed President Susan Collins announced that the Fed would step in to stabilize the bond market during the recent volatility if it had to"
Pending
The Richmond Fed paper suggests that true Federal Reserve independence was only achieved with Paul Volcker's appointment as Fed chair in 1979, implying a long process of gaining independence.
"According to the Richmond Fed paper it took decades for the Fed to become independent with the author arguing that true Fed independence was only achieved with the appointment of Paul Vulkar as the Fed chair in 1979"
Pending
Trump reportedly wants to remove Jerome Powell because he believes the Federal Reserve is making politically motivated decisions, specifically by not lowering interest rates, which Trump views as an intentional error.
"The short explanation why Trump wants to get rid of Pal is because Trump believes the Fed is making its policy decisions based on politics rather than economics in other words Trump wants to get rid of Pal because the Fed isn't lowering interest rates and Trump believes this is an intentional mistake"
Pending
The Federal Reserve maintains that its tight monetary policy is essential for combating inflation, which remains above its 2% target.
"The Fed can and has argued that its tight monetary policy is necessary to combat inflation, which continues to be above the Fed's 2% target"
Pending
As the Fed loses independence, it will eventually be compelled to print money to finance government spending, regardless of its purpose.
"the answer is also something we mentioned in our video about bond vigilantes last summer and that's that the Fed will eventually be forced to print money to finance whatever it is that the government wants to spend money on be it ideology or infrastructure"
Pending