Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
Recent US bond market volatility is due to bond vigilantes aiming to force Trump to roll back tariffs.
"Given these facts it stands to reason that the recent bond market volatility is being caused by bond vigilantes and that their purpose is to try and force Trump to roll back his policies namely his tariffs"
N/A
Pending
If unemployment rises and/or inflation falls, and the Fed doesn't ease policy, Trump could have legal grounds to fire Powell and FOMC members.
"if unemployment continues to rise and or inflation continues to fall and the Fed refuses to ease monetary policy in response this could be concrete evidence that Fed officials are acting politically and would theoretically give Trump enough legal grounds to fire Pal and all members of the FOMC"
N/A
Pending
A Supreme Court ruling on Trump's appeal regarding presidential firing power is expected in June or July, and given the court's Republican bias (especially Trump's appointees), it's likely to rule in favor of the appeal, potentially allowing Trump to fire Powell.
"Trump has asked the Supreme Court to consider the appeal in May and this would reportedly result in a ruling on the appeal in June or July in case it wasn't clear enough a successful appeal would make it possible to fire Pal as such you could say that it's not the political leanings of the Fed that matter here but the political leaning of the Supreme Court as it so happens the Supreme Court is believed to be biased towards Republicans given that six of the nine justices were appointed by Republicans not only that but three of the nine justices were appointed by Trump which has led many to believe that they could vote in favor of this appeal"
N/A
Pending
A Supreme Court ruling in Trump's favor on firing power would cause enormous market volatility due to speculation about Fed control and damage the integrity of the US legal system.
"The Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump's appeal would not only cause enormous volatility in the markets as investors would speculate that Trump would use this power to take control of the Fed but it would also call the integrity of the US legal system into question which would do enormous damage to the US"
N/A
Pending
The Fed's loss of independence is inevitable and will be accelerated by global crises and conflicts.
"history suggests that the process is inevitable and will be accelerated by global crises and global conflicts"
N/A
Pending
Trump would likely fire Powell during a market-crashing crisis, provided the Supreme Court rules he can fire without cause this summer.
"history suggests the answer is that Trump would likely fire Pal in the event of a crisis and chances are that markets would be crashing because of this crisis and this is only if Trump can fire Pal without cause something the Supreme Court will decide over the summer"
N/A
Pending
The Fed will eventually be forced to print tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars to finance government spending, leading to rampant inflation. Scarce assets like gold, Bitcoin, and other commodities will rise in fiat terms, with truly scarce assets gaining real value.
"the Fed will eventually be forced to print money to finance whatever it is that the government wants to spend money on be it ideology or infrastructure and this is the truly terrifying outcome because it's one wherein tens if not hundreds of trillions of dollars will be printed and misallocated The result would be rampant inflation where any asset that's scarce relative to the money supply would rise in fiat terms that would be literally everything but only truly scarce assets would gain value in real terms in this context that means gold Bitcoin and any other digital or physical commodity that's recognized by investors as a store of value"
N/A
Pending
Severe capital misallocation could lead to critical supply shortages, causing economic struggles and unprecedented stagflation.
"if the misallocation of capital is bad enough then there could also seriously be supply shortages so much so that you won't be able to buy what you need even if you have the money at the same time the economy would struggle due to these shortages of critical supplies this would create a degree of stagflation that we've never seen before"
N/A
Pending