Housing Market in 2025: No Crash, Just Collapse in Slow Motion
Published: 2025-06-29
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-06-29
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The housing market is currently experiencing a slow, non-implosive crash due to fundamental unaffordability and gridlock, rather than a 2008-style collapse.
"everyone keeps waiting for the housing market to crash but what if the market is already crashing out just not in the way anyone expected this time it's less 2008 style implosion and more frog in boiling water the market is fundamentally unaffordable gridlocked by design and slowly rugging the path to middle class wealth the bad news isn't that the market is going to crash the bad news is that it isn't"
Pending
A spectacular housing market crash, similar to 2008, is unlikely to occur, and the market has been uneventful for those anticipating one since 2022.
"The comparison though doesn't stand up to scrutiny and anyone waiting for another spectacular crash will have had a boring couple of years since 2022"
Pending
By 2024 (implied by context of current date and transcript reference to 2022), mortgage payments consume 36% of median income for new homes, and 72% for lower-income families, indicating severe cost burden.
"the mortgage burden has swollen to intolerable proportions since 2022 for a family earning the national median income about 36% of their earnings are now required just to cover the mortgage on a new home for a lower inome family that number rises to an absurd 72% of their income more than double the official threshold for being costburdened"
Pending
US new construction is significantly below demand, with building permits at a nearly 5-year low (1.39 million units) and housing starts at a 5-year low (1.25 million units), while the US needs at least 2 million new homes annually.
"new construction is slowing down dramatically building permits recently dropped to a nearly 5-year low of 1.39 million units and housing starts fell even more sharply to a 5-year low of 1.25 million units and this is far below demand which indicates that the US needs at least 2 million new homes every year"
Pending
Over 80% of US homeowners are 'locked' into their homes due to mortgage rates under 6%, which are significantly lower than current market rates.
"in the US over 80% of current homeowners have a mortgage rate under 6% which is subsequently lower than what they could get today and this means that a vast majority are locked into their homes by their own good fortune"
Pending
Commercial real estate is facing significant distress, with delinquency rates of 6.42% (overall), 7.8%-8% (office loans), and a 25-year high of 16.19% for loans transferred to special servicing.
"a new analysis of commercial mortgagebacked securities debt shows 6.42% of borrowers were 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure the office loan delinquency rate is at 7.8% 8% and the rate of loans transferred to special servicing a sign of severe distress has hit a 25-year high of 16.19%"
Pending
A substantial $957 billion in commercial real estate debt is maturing this year, and refinancing at current interest rates will be challenging for borrowers.
"a massive $957 billion wall of debt scheduled to mature this year refinancing these loans at today's rate is going to hurt"
Pending
Regional banks, holding approximately $3 trillion in commercial real estate loans (13% of their assets), are vulnerable to significant losses, which could lead to tightened lending standards and a credit crunch.
"the institutions on the hook for these loans are disproportionately regional banks which hold about $3 trillion in CRA loans accounting for nearly 13% of their total assets if these banks start taking heavy losses they will tighten lending standards for everyone threatening a credit crunch"
Pending
Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated for an extended period, with the era of 3% rates considered over.
"the central expectation is that mortgage rates are going to remain higher for longer the days of 3% are gone"
Pending
In Canada, over $300 billion in mortgages are due for renewal this year, facing significantly higher rates than when initially secured, exacerbating the already high household debt-to-income ratio ($1.74 for every $1 of disposable income).
"over $300 billion worth of mortgages are set for renewal this year many of which were signed when rates were at historic lows the shock of paying 2025 rates is the last thing they need in a country where households already hold $1.74 in debt for every dollar of a disposable income"
Pending
UK mortgage repossessions have increased by 42% year-over-year, and approximately 2.7 million households with sub-3% mortgage rates will face financial strain when forced to remortgage at current higher rates.
"mortgage repossessions which are the legal steps required towards a repossession are going through the roof with repossessions by baifts up 42% yearover-year 2.7 million households are still chilling on ultra low sub 3% mortgage rates meaning that a wave of pain is going to hit as they are forced to remortgage at current rates"
Pending
US foreclosure filings increased by 9% year-over-year in May, and completed foreclosures (bank repossessions) rose by 34% in the past year.
"foreclosure filings in May were up 9% from a year ago while completed foreclosures meaning bank repossessions shot up 34% in the last year"
Pending
Six major Florida markets (Orlando, Tampa, Cape Coral, Lakeland, Northport, Deltona) are experiencing sharp housing downturns, with an average annual decrease of 4.5%, significantly higher than the national average of 0.4%.
"six major markets in Florida namely Orlando Tampa Cape Coral Lakeland Northport and Deltona that are undergoing the sharpest downturns together they have appreciated on average 53% since 2020 about 11% above the national average at 48% but over the past year these same markets are now down around 4.5% on average and more than 10 times the national average of 0.4%"
Pending