ilmscore | Housing Market in 2025: No Crash, Just Collapse in Slow Motion

Housing Market in 2025: No Crash, Just Collapse in Slow Motion

Published: 2025-06-29
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 6
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 6
Prediction
Topic
Status
A spectacular housing market crash, similar to 2008, is unlikely to occur, and the market has been uneventful for those anticipating one since 2022.
"The comparison though doesn't stand up to scrutiny and anyone waiting for another spectacular crash will have had a boring couple of years since 2022"
Housing Market
Pending
A substantial $957 billion in commercial real estate debt is maturing this year, and refinancing at current interest rates will be challenging for borrowers.
"a massive $957 billion wall of debt scheduled to mature this year refinancing these loans at today's rate is going to hurt"
Commercial Real Estate
Pending
Regional banks, holding approximately $3 trillion in commercial real estate loans (13% of their assets), are vulnerable to significant losses, which could lead to tightened lending standards and a credit crunch.
"the institutions on the hook for these loans are disproportionately regional banks which hold about $3 trillion in CRA loans accounting for nearly 13% of their total assets if these banks start taking heavy losses they will tighten lending standards for everyone threatening a credit crunch"
Banking Sector
Pending
Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated for an extended period, with the era of 3% rates considered over.
"the central expectation is that mortgage rates are going to remain higher for longer the days of 3% are gone"
Mortgage Rates
Pending
In Canada, over $300 billion in mortgages are due for renewal this year, facing significantly higher rates than when initially secured, exacerbating the already high household debt-to-income ratio ($1.74 for every $1 of disposable income).
"over $300 billion worth of mortgages are set for renewal this year many of which were signed when rates were at historic lows the shock of paying 2025 rates is the last thing they need in a country where households already hold $1.74 in debt for every dollar of a disposable income"
Canadian Housing Market
Pending
UK mortgage repossessions have increased by 42% year-over-year, and approximately 2.7 million households with sub-3% mortgage rates will face financial strain when forced to remortgage at current higher rates.
"mortgage repossessions which are the legal steps required towards a repossession are going through the roof with repossessions by baifts up 42% yearover-year 2.7 million households are still chilling on ultra low sub 3% mortgage rates meaning that a wave of pain is going to hit as they are forced to remortgage at current rates"
UK Housing Market
Pending