The 4-Year Crypto Cycle Is DEAD – Here’s What’s Replacing It
Published: 2025-07-02
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-07-02
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin's price movement is characterized by prolonged meandering and shallower corrections (max -30%) compared to previous cycles (50-70%).
"Bitcoin's price has spent months meandering around without a clear expansion to one direction or the other. Bitcoin's corrections this cycle have maxed out at minus 30% rather than the routine 50 to 70% draw downs seen in previous cycles."
Pending
The traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer driven by block reward halvings, but by macro catalysts, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan.
"Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argues that macro catalysts, not blockreward math supply shocks, now set the tempo, and that 'The traditional 4-year cycle is over.'"
Pending
The total crypto market cap could reach $5 trillion and beyond, driven by increasing stablecoin demand and favorable macroeconomic factors.
"If stable coin demand continues to grow while these factors maintain their positive push on crypto prices, the total crypto market cap could reach $5 trillion and beyond."
Pending
J.P. Morgan analysts predict Bitcoin will reach $150,000 this year, representing a 55% increase.
"Still an expansion of 55% from here. And this would be roughly in line with analysts at JP Morgan who see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year."
Pending
Standard Chartered analysts predict Bitcoin will reach $200,000, nearly double current prices.
"However, there are certainly more bullish analysts out there, such as Standard Charted, who think that Bitcoin will reach $200,000, a near 100% increase from current prices."
Pending
A Bitcoin top is predicted to occur between Q3 of the current year (2025) and Q1 of 2026, assuming the current cycle is nearing its end before a bear market.
"If we are in the final innings of a 4-year cycle before a bare market unfolds, a Bitcoin top is expected sometime between Q3 this year and Q1 2026."
Pending
The US Treasury has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which will receive forfeited BTC and not sell it. The initial amount is estimated at around 104,000 BTC.
"An executive order issued in March this year created a strategic Bitcoin reserve inside the treasury and required all forfeited BTC to be transferred there and quote not sold. Estimates put the initial trove at about 104,000 BTC as analysts do expect the return of 94,000 BTC to Bitfinex."
Pending
The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF holds approximately 692,000 BTC, representing 3.3% of the total Bitcoin supply.
"The largest spot Bitcoin ETF, the Black Rockck EyesShares Bitcoin Trust, currently holds about 692,000 BTC, and that's equal to around 3.3% of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be in existence."
Pending
126 publicly traded companies collectively hold nearly 4% of the Bitcoin supply, valued at approximately $89 billion.
"In total, 126 publicly traded companies now control just under 4% of the Bitcoin supply, worth around $89 billion."
Pending
An executive order has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve within the US Treasury, mandating that all forfeited Bitcoin be transferred and not sold.
"An executive order issued in March this year created a strategic Bitcoin reserve inside the treasury and required all forfeited BTC to be transferred there and quote not sold."
Pending
The creation of the US strategic Bitcoin reserve signals that Washington now views Bitcoin as a digital gold asset.
"And this instantly removes another chunk of float from circulation and signals to the world that Washington now treats Bitcoin like digital gold."
Pending
Most investors maintain Bitcoin as a core portfolio holding due to institutional, corporate, and US strategic reserve demand.
"That is why most investors choose to keep BTC as their portfolio's anchor. bids from institutional investors, corporate treasuries, and even potentially a bid adding to the US strategic reserve all focus on Bitcoin."
Pending
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and launched in January 2024.
"And sure enough, spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and subsequently launched in January 2024."
Pending
Bitcoin's price increased by 70% in the weeks after the spot ETF launch, peaking in March of that year (2024).
"BTC's price soared 70% higher in the weeks following their launch, ultimately forming a local top in March of that year."
Pending
Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, like Base, are processing transactions at a rate approximately 11 times higher than the Ethereum mainnet.
"Ethereum layer 2 rollups such as base now consistently process around 11 times more transactions per second than Ethereum itself."
Pending
The establishment of the US strategic Bitcoin reserve signifies that Washington now views Bitcoin as analogous to digital gold.
"And this instantly removes another chunk of float from circulation and signals to the world that Washington now treats Bitcoin like digital gold."
Pending
The four Bitcoin halvings (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) have each reduced BTC issuance by 50%, decreasing the supply of new coins entering the market.
"The four events so far in 2012, 16, 20, and 2024 have each sliced BTC issuance by half and in doing so throttled the steady stream of coins coming to the open market."
Pending
In a typical Bitcoin cycle, a simultaneous decrease in supply (due to halving) and a gradual increase in demand creates an imbalance that triggers a significant price rally.
"Supply shrinks overnight while demand gradually rises in tandem. As many analysts and investors believe, the imbalance is the spark that ignites the major leg up in the typical cycle."
Pending
Following the first three Bitcoin halvings, the price of Bitcoin experienced surges of approximately 95x, 30x, and 8x respectively.
"From hing to cycle peak following each of the first three hings, Bitcoin rallied roughly 95 times, 30 times, and eight times respectively."
Pending
A MVRV Z-score above 7 has historically indicated major market tops for Bitcoin. In mid-2025, the score remained below this threshold.
"A reading above 7 has accompanied every major top to date. Though in mid 2025, the gauge is still well below that danger zone."
Pending
Typical post-cycle drawdowns for Bitcoin range from 70% to 90%, serving to correct market excesses.
"Draw downs of 70 to 90% across the board which purge excesses."
Pending
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched approximately 18 months prior, now hold around $135 billion worth of Bitcoin.
"US spot bitcoin ETFs launched around 18 months ago already custody around $135 billion in BTC."
Pending
MicroStrategy holds 592,345 BTC, valued at approximately $64 billion, making it a significant accumulator of Bitcoin.
"crypto's favorite technology firm, Strategy, has become a Bitcoin vacuum cleaner with its current stash sitting at 592,345 BTC or around $64 billion at the time of making this video."
Pending
Enhanced user experience, modular data availability, account abstraction, and low-fee bridges on Ethereum Layer 2 solutions allow new users to engage without incurring high L1 gas fees, a novel dynamic compared to previous cycles.
"Improved UX, modular data availability layers, account abstraction wallets, and near zero fee bridges mean newcomers can interact without even touching L1 gas prices at all. A dynamic that simply does not exist in earlier cycles."
Pending
An executive order in March established a strategic Bitcoin reserve within the US Treasury, mandating the transfer and retention (not sale) of forfeited Bitcoin.
"An executive order issued in March this year created a strategic Bitcoin reserve inside the treasury and required all forfeited BTC to be transferred there and quote not sold."
Pending
The current market cycle is significantly more focused on Bitcoin due to various factors, and the altcoin market is behaving differently than in previous cycles, even during Bitcoin's rallies.
"Put together, all of these factors have made this cycle much more Bitcoin ccentric. While there have been opportunities for big runners in the altcoin space while Bitcoin rallied into six figure territory, the altcoin market looks very different from 2017 or 2021."
Pending
Bitcoin's current cycle drawdowns have been limited to a maximum of 30%, a significant reduction from the typical 50-70% seen in prior cycles.
"Bitcoin's corrections this cycle have maxed out at minus 30% rather than the routine 50 to 70% draw downs seen in previous cycles."
Pending
Regardless of the traditional cycle, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as the crypto asset of choice for institutional investors.
"Four-year cycle or not, Bitcoin is stealing the show, the cycle, and cementing itself as the institutionally accepted crypto asset."
Pending
Bitcoin remains the foundational asset in most portfolios due to consistent demand from institutional investors, corporations, and the US strategic reserve.
"That is why most investors choose to keep BTC as their portfolio's anchor. bids from institutional investors, corporate treasuries, and even potentially a bid adding to the US strategic reserve all focus on Bitcoin."
Pending
The US Treasury's strategic Bitcoin reserve demonstrates Washington's perception of Bitcoin as digital gold.
"And this instantly removes another chunk of float from circulation and signals to the world that Washington now treats Bitcoin like digital gold."
Pending
The crypto market cap is currently $3.2 trillion, with Bitcoin at 65% and stablecoins at 8%. Future growth hinges on factors that have already propelled Bitcoin to six figures.
"At the time of making this video, total crypto market cap sits at $3.2 trillion with Bitcoin commanding roughly 65% of that value and stable coins a further 8%. Whether the coming months can add another couple of trillion or several hinges on the same forces that have sent Bitcoin into six figure territory."
Pending
Continued stablecoin demand and positive market factors could drive the total crypto market cap to $5 trillion or higher.
"If stable coin demand continues to grow while these factors maintain their positive push on crypto prices, the total crypto market cap could reach $5 trillion and beyond."
Pending
J.P. Morgan analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year.
"And this would be roughly in line with analysts at JP Morgan who see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year."
Pending
Standard Chartered analysts predict Bitcoin will reach $200,000, representing a nearly 100% increase.
"However, there are certainly more bullish analysts out there, such as Standard Charted, who think that Bitcoin will reach $200,000, a near 100% increase from current prices."
Pending
Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) backed by sovereign debt, money market funds, or revenue-sharing real estate are poised to attract significant institutional capital.
"Projects that pipe real yield from sovereign debt, money market funds, or revenue sharing real estate into token form. Therefore, look primed to absorb the bulk of institutional capital that may venture out along the crypto risk curve away from Bitcoin."
Pending
A leading DeFi protocol (A) generates $85 million in annualized protocol revenue and $600 million in annualized fees from its money markets.
"DeFi blue chip A clears that bar, hauling in $85 million in annualized protocol revenue and charging nearly $600 million in annualized fees across its money markets."
Pending
The tokenized treasury sector has experienced 545% growth since the beginning of 2024, outperforming all other Real World Asset (RWA) sectors.
"Coin Gekcko calculates that the tokenized treasury sector has grown 545% since the start of 2024, outpacing every other RWA vertical."
Pending
Increasing stablecoin demand, coupled with other positive crypto market factors, could drive the total crypto market cap to over $5 trillion.
"If stable coin demand continues to grow while these factors maintain their positive push on crypto prices, the total crypto market cap could reach $5 trillion and beyond."
Pending
An increase in stablecoin supply will lead to a corresponding increase in demand for T-bills, as stablecoin issuers already hold over $200 billion in them.
"In parallel, stable coin issuers already need over $200 billion in T- bills to back their tokens. So any further increase in stable coin supply translates into nearly the same amount of treasury demand."
Pending
Memecoins have represented the majority of decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on Solana since the second quarter of 2024.
"Memecoins have consistently accounted for a majority of all Solana DEX volume since Q2 2024."
Pending
Miner balances have decreased only slightly since the April halving, contrasting with significant capitulation seen after previous halvings.
"Glass nodes research shows minor balances shrinking only marginally since April's reward cut. A far cry from the capitulation waves that followed earlier hings."
Pending
The value of tokenized treasuries, credit, and commodities on public blockchains has doubled to approximately $24 billion in the past year and continues to grow.
"Public blockchains now host roughly $24 billion in tokenized treasuries, credit, and commodities, double what it was last year. And the curve is still climbing."
Pending
In May, memecoin pairs constituted 54% of Solana's DEX volume, reaching over 70% in February, an unprecedented historical trend.
"54% of May's DEX volume came from memecoin pairs. Back in February, this figure reached over 70%, something historically unprecedented."
Pending
The US Senate has passed a federal stablecoin bill, advancing the regulation of dollar-backed tokens.
"The United States has just cleared a federal stable coin bill through the Senate, a landmark that moves us closer to the regulated path for dollarbacked tokens."
Pending
The US SEC is reportedly dropping crypto cases, indicating a more permissive regulatory environment for crypto operations compared to previous cycles.
"A pro- crypto SEC has meanwhile been dropping crypto cases left, right, and center. It appears most crypto operations in the US have a clear green light in comparison to the previous cycles that were marked by constant state of existential dread."
Pending
The Trump administration's pro-crypto stance, along with regulatory developments in Europe, suggests a regulatory landscape increasingly favorable to the crypto industry.
"Combined with pro- crypto overtures from the Trump administration and Micah's roll out in Europe, regulation is becoming a clear map of green and red lights certainly leaning in favor of the industry overall rather than the onoff switch that had the industry constantly second-guessing its fate in the past."
Pending
The 'Genius Act' is nearing congressional approval and would provide stablecoin issuers with a federal charter and guidelines for traditional banks' participation.
"Congress is now on the verge of supplying the final piece of the puzzle through the Genius Act. The bill's one-toone reserve mandate would give stable coin issuers a clear federal charter and just as importantly tell traditional banks exactly how to participate."
Pending
The altcoin market's behavior in the current cycle differs significantly from 2017 and 2021, despite Bitcoin's rally into six-figure territory.
"While there have been opportunities for big runners in the altcoin space while Bitcoin rallied into six figure territory, the altcoin market looks very different from 2017 or 2021."
Pending
Memecoin seasons are expected to continue in the future due to retail traders' persistent desire for high-return opportunities.
"We believe that there will continue to be a memecoin season in the future. The temptation of trying to catch a 100x runner will not leave the mind of retail crypto traders."
Pending
Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has rapidly evolved from a concept to a prominent sector within the altcoin market.
"One altcoin sector in particular stands out. Realworld assets or RWA asset tokenization has sprinted from proof of concept to headline act."
Pending
BlackRock's Biddle Fund, a tokenized treasury, holds $2.9 billion and is now accepted as collateral on major crypto platforms.
"Black Rockck's Biddle Fund alone commands $2.9 billion and can now be posted as collateral on major crypto venues."
Pending
A prominent DeFi protocol is generating $85 million in annual revenue and approximately $600 million in annual fees from its money market operations.
"DeFi blue chip A clears that bar, hauling in $85 million in annualized protocol revenue and charging nearly $600 million in annualized fees across its money markets."
Pending
Capital is concentrating on projects with proven product-market fit and active users, while narrative-driven cryptocurrencies are likely to face significant reduction.
"Many analysts believe that capital is clustering around selective winners with authentic product market fit and active users while narrative only coins face a swift culling."
Pending
A suggested investment strategy involves holding a few promising altcoins while treating other riskier assets as speculative lottery tickets.
"So, letting a few promising altcoins ride shotgun and treating everything else further out along the risk curve as a lottery ticket remains a reliable way to enjoy the view."
Pending
US monetary policy eased as the Federal Reserve began a series of three consecutive rate cuts.
"US monetary policy loosened its grip and the Federal Reserve delivered the first of what would become three consecutive rate cuts."
Pending
The Federal Reserve's reduction of quantitative tightening to $5 billion a month in March 2025 signaled a green light for increased risk-taking by investors.
"When the Fed formally slowed quantitive tightening in March 2025, trimming Treasury rolloffs to $5 billion a month, investors and traders interpreted the gesture as a green light for still more risk."
Pending
Donald Trump's presidential election victory in November of the previous year (2024) coincided with a significant market rally, especially in crypto, leading to new all-time highs.
"And of course, these liquidity tailwinds met a political tailwind when President Donald Trump won the presidential election a few months prior. Markets, particularly crypto, saw a massive leg up following confirmation of the crypto president's victory in November last year, ultimately leading to a new all-time high."
Pending
The Trump administration revoked previous enforcement priorities and established a working group on digital assets, shifting the focus to nurturing crypto innovation.
"Trump then went on to sign an executive order revoking several Biden era enforcement priorities and set up the presidential working group on digital assets. For the first time, US agencies were told to nurture rather than neuter crypto innovation."
Pending
Current realized volatility (below 50%) is significantly lower than observed in the bull markets of 2017 and 2021 (80-100%).
"Realized volatility on 3-month window is sitting below 50%. Remarkably low for a bull market and far beneath the 80 to 100% prints we saw in 2017 and 2021."
Pending
Memecoin trading pairs accounted for 54% of Solana's DEX volume in May, and over 70% in February, indicating a historically significant trend.
"54% of May's DEX volume came from memecoin pairs. Back in February, this figure reached over 70%, something historically unprecedented."
Pending
Miners previously played a role in increasing Bitcoin supply, contrasting with the current trend of supply being absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries.
"a role miners once used to play in reverse by adding supply."
Pending
Memecoin mania has emerged as a significant characteristic of the cryptocurrency market over the past year.
"Memecoin mania has been a core feature of the last year or so."
Pending
A federal stablecoin bill has passed the US Senate, indicating progress towards regulating dollar-backed tokens.
"The United States has just cleared a federal stable coin bill through the Senate, a landmark that moves us closer to the regulated path for dollarbacked tokens."
Pending
The evidence from 2024-2025 suggests that the traditional 4-year crypto cycle (supply shock, meltup, crash, recovery) may be faltering.
"Has the typical 4-year cycle flatlined? Ever since Bitcoin's first hing in 2012, investors have treated the 4-year cadence as gospel? Supply shock, reflexive meltup, crash, and then recovery. Yet the evidence piling up in 2024 to 2025 is awkward for that tidy script."
Pending
Market volatility has been reduced due to consistent buying from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries (like MicroStrategy), and the US Treasury's strategic reserve, which collectively absorb supply regardless of price fluctuations.
"Well, the cycle's once violent market movements have been muffled by dollar cost averaging leviathans. US spot bitcoin ETF issuers continue to soak up BTC seemingly oblivious to price spikes. Corporate treasuries such as strategy add predictable bids and the US Treasury itself will lock away an estimated 104,000 BTC."
Pending
Sophisticated hedging by mining firms, involving pre-selling hashrate via forward markets, transforms the impact of Bitcoin halvings from a sharp supply shock into a more gradual adjustment.
"With sophisticated hedging desks at firms, they are pre-elling hash rates months ahead via forward markets, turning the haring from a cliff into a manageable step down."
Pending
Retail speculation in memecoins is increasingly driven by factors like ease of use (low friction wallets), social media trends, and quick token launches, rather than underlying technology or Bitcoin dominance.
"Memecoin Mania suggests that retail speculation is now driven less by tech or Bitcoin dominance and more by low friction wallets, social media virality, or just some good old-fashioned cabals looking into Schiller token they launched in 2 seconds through a memecoin launchpad."
Pending
The predictable rhythm of the crypto cycle is evolving, moving from a metronomic pattern to a more dynamic and unpredictable jazz-like structure.
"Yet, if the cycle once mimicked a consistent uh metronome, maybe it now resembles jazz, familiar motifs, but unexpected pauses and crescendos that arrive on their own schedule."
Pending
The market for tokenized treasuries, credit, and commodities on public blockchains has doubled to $24 billion in the past year and continues to expand.
"Public blockchains now host roughly $24 billion in tokenized treasuries, credit, and commodities, double what it was last year. And the curve is still climbing."
Pending
A leading DeFi protocol has achieved $85 million in annualized revenue and nearly $600 million in annualized fees from its money market operations.
"DeFi blue chip A clears that bar, hauling in $85 million in annualized protocol revenue and charging nearly $600 million in annualized fees across its money markets."
Pending
Seasoned investors are increasingly prioritizing audited revenue reports over tokenomics documents, seeking tangible financial performance metrics.
"Those numbers give allocators something meatier than potential TVL to underwrite, and they illustrate why seasoned investors increasingly demand audited revenues, not just tokconomic PDFs."
Pending
Capital is consolidating around select crypto projects with genuine product-market fit and user engagement, while projects solely reliant on narrative are expected to decline.
"Many analysts believe that capital is clustering around selective winners with authentic product market fit and active users while narrative only coins face a swift culling."
Pending
A prudent approach to altcoins involves holding a few promising ones while treating others with higher risk as speculative investments.
"So, letting a few promising altcoins ride shotgun and treating everything else further out along the risk curve as a lottery ticket remains a reliable way to enjoy the view."
Pending