Crypto in Crisis? How the Fourth Turning Could Reshape Everything

"According to some historians we've entered what's known as a fourth turning a period of major crisis that threatens to reshape society the economy and even the global order"

"In it they proposed a startling idea that history moves in predictable cycles lasting roughly 80 to 100 years about the span of a human lifetime Each of these cycles is divided into four distinct phases or turnings with each phase lasting roughly two decades"

"Now according to how we're actually living through a fourth turning right now In fact he predicted decades ago that we'd start entering this turbulent period sometime between the mid 2000s and early 2020s"

"The first major factor is the decadesl long buildup of economic imbalance After World War II the world experienced unprecedented prosperity initially driven by reconstruction efforts expanding trade and booming consumer markets and later accelerated by globalization from the 1980s onwards However the true explosion of debt accumulation and historically low interest rates really began following the 2008 global financial crisis"

"And today global debt stands at levels never seen before pushing countries and economies to their limits"

"Then we have the political and social fragmentation that's been steadily growing for decades Trust in governments financial institutions and the media has continuously deteriorated and wealth inequality has only increased with a shrinking percentage of elites accumulating more and more of the world's wealth"

"This divide could widen even further with AI stepping in to snatch up the jobs currently held by everyday plebs like you and me"

"Now such a growing gap has fueled polarization and populism around the globe evidenced by the rise of anti-establishment leaders across the political spectrum From Trump in the US to Maloney in Italy Malay in Argentina and far-right movements worldwide"

"Meanwhile another important element is the gradual geopolitical shift sparked by China's rise over the past several decades Following the end of the Cold War the US initially enjoyed unmatched global dominance economically and militarily But China's steady ascension since the 1990s has increasingly challenged American dominance"

"The generation who truly understood the devastating lessons of the last fourth turning those who experienced World War II firsthand have largely passed away With them society has lost invaluable wisdom gained through extreme hardship and sacrifice In their place new generations are stepping into leadership roles However unlike previous generations who lived through World War II and the Great Depression these new generations have never experienced an existential crisis of similar magnitude"

"So according to Strauss and how fourth turnings bring profound crises that reshape society from the ground up economically politically and socially Previous forth turnings include the American Revolution the US Civil War and the Great Depression that eventually led to World War II"

"When debts reach unsustainable levels governments have three main ways to respond Cutting spending substantially defaulting outright or inflating away the debts Inflation historically has been the preferred political path because it quietly reduces debt without overtly slashing services or increasing taxes"

"But while inflation benefits governments it devastates ordinary citizens by eroding their savings and purchasing power"

"A single geopolitical misstep say in the Taiwan Strait could quickly escalate into conflict between these two superpowers And it's a lot more likely to happen than many people realize possibly as soon as 2027 as we explored in our recent video about China potentially invading Taiwan"

"If such an event occurs there's a significant chance that the US could become directly involved Just imagine the aftermath Global supply chains breaking down commodity prices soaring and widespread panic gripping financial markets worldwide"

"And we can already see early signs of this polarization particularly between Western nations and the BRICS countries"

"we're likely entering a prolonged era of financial repression elevated inflation and tight capital controls"

"From intensifying global trade wars to China's increasingly aggressive posture towards Taiwan"

"If inflation continues to cool as it has in recent months even amidst tariff pressures and the economy slows but avoids a full-blown recession it could create the perfect conditions for stocks and crypto to rally"

"If they fire up those money printers again to save the economy from a painful recession they risk reigniting dangerously high inflation On the other hand though cutting interest rates to boost growth isn't an easy option either since they would still have to fight inflation"

"Economic turmoil of this magnitude could further inflame the geopolitical tensions we've previously mentioned marking a significant low for markets and perhaps the darkest phase of the fourth turning"

"Napia also suggests that we're transitioning into an environment where highly speculative and hyper financialized assets could lose favor The era of easy money and ultra- low interest rates that boosted speculative markets is ending"

"And this means that the crypto and economic cycles we're currently living in may be the last of their kind at least for the foreseeable future"

"Towards the end of this decade companies and cryptos that survive and thrive will be those delivering genuine realworld adoption and sustainable revenue"

"In crypto's case specifically we may end up with significantly fewer projects than we have today The winners will be those with solid fundamentals proven utility and healthy financial runway"

"The entire crypto space could shift dramatically focusing less on speculation and more on quality realworld protocols"

"With all that said however there's no denying the period ahead could be significantly challenging But armed with a clear understanding of what's potentially coming you're now better equipped to navigate these uncertain times"

"As we've covered earlier global debt has surged to unprecedented levels and governments typically choose to quietly inflate away this debt rather than make unpopular spending cuts or tax hikes As inflation takes hold bond holders will demand higher yields in order to compensate This causes bond prices to fall leaving existing bonds with deteriorating value"

"Over the past decade growth focused tech stocks driven by cheap capital and globalization have produced outsized returns But now this narrative could flip entirely The new economic landscape favors tangible sectors like infrastructure defense commodities manufacturing and energy"

"When inflation and currency devaluation strike precious metals like gold and silver historically perform well Gold especially stands out not only as an inflation hedge but potentially as a new reserve asset if confidence in traditional currencies deteriorates"

"Besides precious metals other commodities like oil copper uranium and agricultural products could also perform strongly given their essential roles in economic activity and national security"

"So how do you identify the potential survivors well beyond established heavyweights like Bitcoin and Ethereum the key is to look for cryptocurrencies gaining genuine realworld adoption These will likely carve out their own specific niches be it in payments gaming decentralized infrastructure or otherwise"

"In an era of potential capital controls geographic diversification becomes critical You'll want to hold assets in jurisdictions less likely to impose strict controls or financial repression"

"Additionally it's essential to shift your investing mindset away from simply chasing returns towards preserving your existing wealth In challenging times the investors who succeed aren't necessarily those making the biggest gains They're those who manage to limit losses most effectively"

"Towards the end of this decade companies and cryptos that survive and thrive will be those delivering genuine realworld adoption and sustainable revenue In crypto's case specifically we may end up with significantly fewer projects than we have today The winners will be those with solid fundamentals proven utility and healthy financial runway The entire crypto space could shift dramatically focusing less on speculation and more on quality realworld protocols As financial conditions tighten and capital flows become less speculative only the strongest will survive"

"Neil How and William Strauss published a groundbreaking book titled The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy In it they proposed a startling idea that history moves in predictable cycles lasting roughly 80 to 100 years about the span of a human lifetime Each of these cycles is divided into four distinct phases or turnings with each phase lasting roughly two decades Now according to Strauss and how these generational cycles have played out repeatedly throughout history shaping society culture and politics along the way Each turning is defined by a prevailing mood and specific types of events much like seasons in a year First comes the high a period of strong institutions collective confidence and social cohesion Imagine the prosperous years following World War II with booming economies stable family units and rising living standards Next comes the awakening when younger generations begin questioning established norms and pushing for personal freedom and cultural change Think of the energetic but chaotic vibes of the 1960s and 70s when people challenged authority experimented with new lifestyles and fought for social change Following that comes the unraveling marked by growing individualism weakening institutions and a breakdown in consensus This is similar to the culture wars political division and economic instability we've seen since the 1980s A period where society gradually splinters into competing factions And finally we reach the fourth turning a time of deep crisis when old systems collapse forcing societies to fundamentally reorganize History shows these periods often involve severe challenges like wars revolutions economic crashes or widespread social unrest Now according to how we're actually living through a fourth turning right now In fact he predicted decades ago that we'd start entering this turbulent period sometime between the mid 2000s and early 2020s"

"The geopolitical landscape today also poses an alarming risk especially the tensions between the US and China A single geopolitical misstep say in the Taiwan Strait could quickly escalate into conflict between these two superpowers And it's a lot more likely to happen than many people realize possibly as soon as 2027 as we explored in our recent video about China potentially invading Taiwan which you can find right over here"

"well as you might have guessed given the economic and geopolitical instability we've discussed it's probably no surprise that markets could become highly volatile and unpredictable as this forth turning unfolds According to renowned financial historian Russell Napia we're likely entering a prolonged era of financial repression elevated inflation and tight capital controls"

"As we've covered earlier global debt has surged to unprecedented levels and governments typically choose to quietly inflate away this debt rather than make unpopular spending cuts or tax hikes As inflation takes hold bond holders will demand higher yields in order to compensate This causes bond prices to fall leaving existing bonds with deteriorating value Simply put holding traditional government or corporate bonds during this fourth turning could prove dangerous for your portfolio"

"Over the past decade growth focused tech stocks driven by cheap capital and globalization have produced outsized returns But now this narrative could flip entirely The new economic landscape favors tangible sectors like infrastructure defense commodities manufacturing and energy We could see governments worldwide ramping up their spending in these areas to rebuild economies restore supply chains and boost national security So shifting your focus towards these sectors could position your portfolio to weather and potentially thrive amid this upheaval"

"When inflation and currency devaluation strike precious metals like gold and silver historically perform well Gold especially stands out not only as an inflation hedge but potentially as a new reserve asset if confidence in traditional currencies deteriorates This might also explain why gold has enjoyed such a sustained rally in recent years a topic we recently covered right over here Besides precious metals other commodities like oil copper uranium and agricultural products could also perform strongly given their essential roles in economic activity and national security"