Next Fed Chair? How Markets & Crypto Could React EXPLAINED
Published: 2025-07-12
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2025-07-12
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
If Christopher Waller becomes Fed chair, short-term US Treasury yields will likely decrease, leading to a flatter yield curve overall.
"For bonds, that likely means lower short-term yields. And if he does become Fed chair, a flatter yield curve overall. And that's because the markets would expect the Fed to cut rates more quickly than the long-term expectations for growth or inflation would decline."
Pending
If Christopher Waller becomes Fed chair, the US dollar will likely weaken.
"For currencies, it signals a lighter dollar. And June's knee-jerk drop in the DXY after Waller spoke previewed exactly that."
Pending
If Christopher Waller becomes Fed chair, the crypto market will likely experience a natural bid due to falling real yields and a softer dollar.
"Stocks and crypto do like the combination of falling real yields and a softer dollar. So, a Waller Fed would be expected to provide a natural bid for crypto."
Pending
If Kevin Walsh is chosen as Fed chair, there will be an immediate scramble out of risk assets.
"Should Trump actually choose him, expect an immediate repricing, a stronger dollar, growth stocks down, and a scramble out of risk assets."
Pending
If Kevin Walsh is chosen as Fed chair, crypto will face more restrictive policy rates well into 2026, higher funding costs, tempered risk sentiment, and competition from higher real yields, which would be bearish for crypto.
"For crypto, this would mean the pricing in of more restrictive policy rates well into 2026. Funding costs would remain pinned at higher levels. Tempered risk sentiment would weigh down flows, and higher real yields would offer competition to Bitcoin's digital gold narrative. Doesn't sound great for bulls."
Pending
Scott Bessant expects a rate cut by September (of the current year, 2025).
"Bessent has stated that he expects a rate cutainly by September. uh coming from the man who oversees the US Treasury that reads less like a forecast and a bit more like marching orders."
Pending
If the Fed defers a rate cut at its late July meeting, policymakers may have to make a larger rate cut in September.
"Bessent has also cautioned that if the Fed defers a cut at its late July meeting, policymakers may have to make a larger move in September."
Pending
Scott Bessant plans to hold off on issuing more 10- and 30-year bonds for the next few quarters to prevent long-term Treasury yields from rising further.
"To avoid a rise in long-term yields, Bessant plans to hold off on issuing more 10 and 30-year bonds for the next few quarters. Instead, he'll rely on short-term Treasury bills, which are cheaper for taxpayers and keep long-term interest rates from rising further."
Pending
Relaxing leverage ratio rules for banks could reduce the 10-year Treasury yield by 10 to 50 basis points.
"A Reuters reports offer analysis estimating that relaxing leverage ratio rules for banks and initiative Bessant backs could knock 10 to 50 basis points off the 10-year yield by itself."
Pending
Scott Bessant's liquidity-friendly policies (cheaper funding, flatter curve, regulatory tweaks) will likely push stocks and crypto up.
"And this all amounts to a risk on cocktail that has historically pushed stocks and crypto up."
Pending
If Scott Bessant becomes Fed chair, it could signal a significant upward movement for crypto.
"For crypto holders, that could feel a lot like the opening bell for a big leg up."
Pending
If Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair, there will be a market-wide rally for stocks and crypto.
"In practice, trading desks map his arrival to a weaker dollar, a snap steepening of the Treasury curve once the front end dives, and a marketwide rally for stocks and crypto."
Pending
If Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair, prioritizing growth over price stability will lead to a continued bull run for stocks and Bitcoin.
"A Fed that explicitly prioritizes growth over spotless price stability is the starting gun for a continued trend in the current bull run for stocks and BTC."
Pending
Michelle Bowman could support a July rate cut if inflation remains subdued.
"Inside the Fed, Governor Michelle Bowman is quite the denter. She told an AP roundtable that she could support a July rate cut if inflation stays subdued, distancing herself from Pal's wait andsee approach."
Pending