Why Big Money Is Quietly Buying Crypto OTC
Published: 2025-07-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-07-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The altcoin market is showing signs of a long-awaited rally.
"the altcoin market is finally showing signs of life with many cryptos finally getting the long overdue rally that investors everywhere have been praying for."
Pending
The US is moving towards greater regulatory clarity in the crypto market with the signing of the Genius Act and the upcoming Clarity Act, which will impact stable coins and market structure.
"the US has taken greater steps towards regulatory clarity with President Trump signing the Genius Act into law on the 18th of July, providing some much needed clarity on stable coins. The next big step is the Clarity Act. While the Genius Act targets stable coins, the Clarity Act focuses on market structure, which some argue is even more important."
Pending
Increased institutional and traditional investor interest, coupled with regulatory clarity, is expected to drive significant capital into the crypto market, leading to altcoins potentially reaching new all-time highs beyond current expectations.
"this will attract even more market institutional and traditional investors, meaning huge amounts of capital flowing into the crypto market. And given that cryptos are already starting to rally like crazy, this suggests that many altcoins could rally to new all-time highs, even higher than many are expecting."
Pending
DEXs are projected to continue increasing their market share in spot trading, having already grown significantly due to improved liquidity and user-friendliness from abstraction tools.
"Dexes have continued to capture market share in the spot markets, hosting 80% of the total spot trading volumes, which is up from 11% in 2024 and 10% from the first half of last year. The report notes that if this trend continues, Dex's market share will likely keep on rising."
Pending
Despite gains in other Layer 1 and Layer 2 cryptos, Ethereum is expected to maintain its dominance based on key metrics like TVL, on-chain volume, daily users, and market share.
"nonem layer 1 and layer 2 cryptos gained market share but Ethereum remained dominant. Key metrics like TVL onchain volume, daily users, and market share have remained fairly steady with no real threats to Ethereum's dominance."
Pending
The surge in Bitcoin options trading, indicated by a near tripling of open interest, signifies increased institutional activity and the growing use of volatility strategies for future positioning.
"Open interest in BTC options has nearly tripled from 11.6 billion to $31.3 billion. And this shows rising institutional activity and more use of volatility strategies setting the stage for advanced positioning in the future."
Pending
Standard Chartered offering Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to clients confirms the prediction that a systemically important bank would provide direct spot crypto trading services.
"Standard Charted's most recent announcement that it would start offering Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to clients means that this prediction came true after all, as it's technically considered to be a systemically important bank."
Pending
It is anticipated that FAANG companies will eventually launch their own tokens or list on major exchanges as a natural progression of tokenized fractionalization, offering significant potential gains.
"While admittedly more in the moonshot category, we view this as the natural next step in the evolution of tokenized fractionalization. Just imagine the potential gains if that were to happen."
Pending
While several asset managers have applied for a spot Doge ETF, approval is pending with the SEC having a decision deadline in October.
"Well, although multiple asset managers have filed for a spot Doge ETF, none have been approved as of yet, the SEC has until October to make a final decision."
Pending
The prediction that company dividends, acquisitions, or mergers would be settled using stablecoins has been validated by a $2 billion investment in Binance by MGX Fund Management, settled in USD1.
"Company dividends, acquisitions, or mergers would be settled using stable coins. Back in March, MGX Fund Management, which is backed by the Abu Dhabi government, completed a $2 billion investment in Binance, and this was the largest ever investment in a crypto company and was settled using the USD1 stable coin."
Pending
The prediction that listed companies would issue debt or shares to accumulate Ethereum has been accurate, with multiple firms like BTCS, Shar Link Gaming, and Bitmine Immersion having done so in 2025.
"a listed company would issue debt or shares to accumulate ETH, which was bang on. Several firms have done just that in 2025. These include Blockchain Technology Consensus Solutions or BTCS now holding over 31,000 ETH, Shar Link Gaming now with over 280,000 ETH, and Bitmine Immersion holding 300,000 ETH."
Pending
While the US has reportedly created a Bitcoin reserve and Pakistan plans to follow, there is limited evidence of China, the UAE, or Europe creating similar reserves, making this prediction only partially correct.
"The US would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and that China, the UAE, and Europe would be forced to follow. Wintermute claims it got this prediction right, but uh we're not so convinced. Obviously, the US has created a Bitcoin reserve and more recently Pakistan announced plans to follow suit. But as for China, there's only speculation and there's very little evidence, if any, of the UAE or Europe creating strategic Bitcoin reserves of their own."
Pending
Within the blockchain utilities and tools sector, interoperability and scalability cryptos are experiencing uptrends, while data and analytics providers are in a downtrend.
"In the blockchain utilities and tools sector, the subsectors that have seen the uptrend are interoperability cryptos and scalability cryptos. Meanwhile, the data and analytics providers are the only sub- sector within the utilities and tools narrative that reportedly saw a downtrend."
Pending
Asset origination and issuance, DeFi infrastructure, and managed yield services are identified as growing subsectors within the DeFi narrative.
"In the DeFi narrative, three subsectors were in an uptrend and none were in a downtrend. These growing sub- sectors include asset origination and issuance cryptos, defy infrastructure and data and managed yield services."
Pending
Computation is a growing subsector within the 'Deeper' narrative, while storage cryptos are experiencing a downtrend.
"In the deeper narrative, one sub sector grew while another declined. The area that grew was computation while storage cryptos were in a downtrend."
Pending
No subsectors within the media, arts, and entertainment sector are experiencing an uptrend, and the metaverse subsector is in a downtrend.
"As for the media, arts and entertainment sector, unfortunately, no subsectors experienced an uptrend, but the metaverse subsector saw a downtrend, which isn't too surprising all things considered."
Pending
Overall spot OTC memecoin volumes have decreased in 2025 compared to previous years, with a shift in dominance from legacy coins to newer ones like Bonk, Wiff, and Popcat, leading to more fragmented trading.
"Annualized activity in 2025 has dropped 29% from 2024 and 17% compared to the first half of 2024. As legacy memes like Doge or SHIB continue to lose dominance to memes like Bonk, Wiff, and Popcat, OTC meme trading has become more fragmented."
Pending
Institutions are focusing on a limited selection of meme coins, while retail investors have shown a more than twofold increase in the number of meme coins they are willing to trade.
"Institutions are sticking to a smaller range of meme coins, while retail investors have more than doubled the amount of meme coins they're willing to trade."
Pending
BNB and Crow are primary drivers of institutional trading activity in the Centralized Finance (CFI) sector.
"the institutional bid has been driven primarily by names like BNB and Crow."
Pending
Stablecoins gained significant traction in Q2, possibly influenced by the anticipated stablecoin regulations in the US.
"stable coins gained traction in Q2, likely due to the then pending stable coin regulations in the US."
Pending
The media, arts, and entertainment sector is showing signs of a rebound after a previous period of overheating, with retail investors gradually returning while institutions are disengaging.
"media, arts, and entertainment is rebounding after overheating last cycle. Retail is slowly returning while institutions continue to move further away."
Pending
Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are predicted to continue increasing their market share in spot trading.
"The report notes that if this trend continues, Dex's market share will likely keep on rising."
Pending
Institutional investors are showing a strong preference for crypto infrastructure, with a significant majority of traditional capital remaining invested in BTC, ETH layer 1 cryptos, and stablecoin protocols.
"Institutional investors have favored crypto infrastructure and a whopping 96% of Trady Capital has stayed with BTC layer 1 cryptos like ETH and stable coin protocols."
Pending
Ethereum is expected to maintain its dominant position in the crypto market, with key metrics remaining stable and no significant threats emerging.
"Key metrics like TVL onchain volume, daily users, and market share have remained fairly steady with no real threats to Ethereum's dominance."
Pending
Stablecoins have surpassed memecoins to rank among the top three sectors in 2025.
"the only shift in rankings in 2025 was stable coins, which overtook memecoins to become one of the top three sectors."
Pending
The surge in Bitcoin options trading, with open interest nearly tripling, indicates growing institutional activity and the use of advanced volatility strategies.
"Activity in Bitcoin options has surged, a clear sign of market maturity. Since the start of the year, open interest in BTC options has nearly tripled from 11.6 billion to $31.3 billion."
Pending
Capital investment in the crypto market has become increasingly concentrated in currency networks, general-purpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools sectors.
"capital became more concentrated in three areas: currency networks, generalpurpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools."
Pending
The SEC will make a final decision on the approval of spot Dogecoin ETFs by October.
"the SEC has until October to make a final decision."
Pending
In the first half of 2025, institutional investors maintained their focus on larger cryptocurrencies, while retail investors shifted towards smaller altcoins.
"Institutions stuck with larger cryptos while retail pushed deeper into smaller altcoins."
Pending
Company dividends, acquisitions, and mergers are increasingly being settled using stablecoins, as exemplified by a $2 billion investment in Binance settled with USD1.
"Company dividends, acquisitions, or mergers would be settled using stable coins. Back in March, MGX Fund Management... completed a $2 billion investment in Binance... and this was settled using the USD1 stable coin."
Pending
Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen renewed institutional interest due to significant accumulation by entities such as the government of El Salvador and corporations like Strategy.
"BTC and ETH have regained appeal with institutions driven by heavy accumulation from governments like El Salvador and corporations like Strategy."
Pending
Multiple listed companies have issued debt or shares to accumulate Ethereum in 2025.
"a listed company would issue debt or shares to accumulate ETH, which was bang on. Several firms have done just that in 2025."
Pending
Retail investors are increasingly investing in altcoin narratives, such as decentralized AI, DeFi, and Deepen.
"retail investors have been rotating into altcoin narratives, including the likes of decentralized AI, DeFi, Deepen, and others."
Pending
The US has created a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and Pakistan has announced plans to follow suit, though China, UAE, and Europe's participation is unconfirmed.
"the US would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and that China, the UAE, and Europe would be forced to follow. Wintermute claims it got this prediction right, but uh we're not so convinced. Obviously, the US has created a Bitcoin reserve and more recently Pakistan announced plans to follow suit."
Pending
Trading activity in memecoins is shifting from older tokens (e.g., Dogecoin, Shiba Inu) to newer ones (e.g., Bonk, Dog with Hat, Popcat), with the latter's trading share increasing.
"Flows have shifted from legacy names like Dogecoin and shinu to newer tokens like Bonk, Dog with Hat, and Popcat, which have grown their trading share from 0.7% to 5.3%."
Pending
In the first half of 2025, OTC spot volumes grew by 18%, significantly outperforming centralized exchange spot trading growth (7%) by 2.4 times, indicating institutional preference for executing large trades off-exchange.
"Wintermute reveals that its OTC spot volumes in the first half of 2025 outperformed overall exchange volumes by 2.4 times. Specifically, spot trading on centralized exchanges grew by 7%. While OTC volumes rose by 18%, indicating that institutional investors prefer executing large trades outside of exchanges."
Pending
Within the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) sector, asset origination and issuance, DeFi infrastructure, and managed yield services are experiencing growth.
"In the DeFi narrative, three subsectors were in an uptrend and none were in a downtrend. These growing sub-sectors include asset origination and issuance cryptos, defy infrastructure and data and managed yield services."
Pending
OTC derivatives, particularly Contracts for Difference (CFDs), experienced substantial growth in the first half of 2025, driven by institutional demand and an expanded range of underlying assets, offering capital-efficient exposure to crypto.
"OTC derivatives, which have seen major growth in the first half of this year, largely driven by institutional demand. CFDs continued their momentum from last year with the number of tradable underlying assets rising from 15 to 34 reflecting growing interest in capital efficient exposure to crypto without directly owning those underlying assets."
Pending
Within the Deepen (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) sector, computation-related cryptos are growing, while storage-related cryptos are declining.
"The area that grew was computation while storage cryptos were in a downtrend."
Pending
The metaverse subsector in crypto is experiencing a downtrend.
"the metaverse subsector saw a downtrend, which isn't too surprising all things considered."
Pending
Over-the-counter (OTC) volumes for tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) from TradFi institutions saw a 32% year-on-year increase.
"Wintermute recorded a 32% increase yearon-year in OTC volumes from Tradfi institutions for these tokenized RWAs."
Pending
Over-the-counter (OTC) options trading experienced a 412% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
"the report also highlights a 412% jump in OTC options trading compared to the first half of 2024."
Pending
Institutional investment in the CFI (Centralized Finance) sector is notably driven by assets like BNB and CRO.
"the institutional bid has been driven primarily by names like BNB and Crow."
Pending
The quantity of newly traded tokens has doubled.
"the number of new tokens traded has doubled."
Pending
Legacy memecoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are losing dominance to newer tokens such as Bonk, Wiff, and Popcat, leading to more fragmented OTC memecoin trading.
"As legacy memes like Doge or SHIB continue to lose dominance to memes like Bonk, Wiff, and Popcat, OTC meme trading has become more fragmented."
Pending
Institutional investors are concentrating on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while retail investors are increasingly focusing on altcoins.
"retail and institutional investors are diverging in their market approaches. institutions continue to focus on major cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum while retail is shifting toward altcoins."
Pending
Retail investors have more than doubled the number of memecoins they are willing to trade.
"retail investors have more than doubled the amount of meme coins they're willing to trade."
Pending
Stablecoins gained traction in Q2 of 2025, likely influenced by anticipated stablecoin regulations in the US.
"stable coins gained traction in Q2, likely due to the then pending stable coin regulations in the US."
Pending
The media, arts, and entertainment crypto sector is showing signs of a rebound, with retail investors returning while institutional investors are reducing their involvement.
"media, arts, and entertainment is rebounding after overheating last cycle. Retail is slowly returning while institutions continue to move further away."
Pending
Capital investment has become increasingly concentrated in currency networks (like Bitcoin), general-purpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools.
"currency networks including Bitcoin... capital became more concentrated in three areas: currency networks, generalpurpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools."
Pending
Capital investment has become increasingly concentrated in currency networks (like Bitcoin), general-purpose blockchain networks (like Ethereum), and blockchain utility and tools.
"generalpurpose blockchain networks including Ethereum... capital became more concentrated in three areas: currency networks, generalpurpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools."
Pending
Capital investment has become increasingly concentrated in currency networks, general-purpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools.
"blockchain utility and tools... capital became more concentrated in three areas: currency networks, generalpurpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools."
Pending
Institutional investors are showing a preference for crypto infrastructure investments.
"Institutional investors have favored crypto infrastructure"
Pending
96% of traditional finance (TradFi) capital remains invested in Bitcoin Layer 1, Ethereum, and stablecoin protocols.
"a whopping 96% of Trady Capital has stayed with BTC layer 1 cryptos like ETH and stable coin protocols."
Pending
Stablecoins have surpassed memecoins to become one of the top three sectors in terms of capital allocation in 2025.
"the only shift in rankings in 2025 was stable coins, which overtook memecoins to become one of the top three sectors."
Pending
Interoperability and scalability cryptocurrencies are experiencing an uptrend in OTC activity within the blockchain utilities and tools sector.
"the subsectors that have seen the uptrend are interoperability cryptos and scalability cryptos."
Pending
Data and analytics providers within the blockchain utilities and tools sector are experiencing a downtrend in OTC activity.
"the data and analytics providers are the only sub- sector within the utilities and tools narrative that reportedly saw a downtrend."
Pending
Computation-related cryptos within the Deepen sector are growing, while storage-related cryptos are declining.
"The area that grew was computation while storage cryptos were in a downtrend."
Pending
Ethereum's share of Contracts for Difference (CFD) volumes has nearly doubled since 2024.
"ETH has already nearly doubled its share of CFD volumes since 2024,"
Pending
Overall altcoin CFD volumes have tripled, with institutions showing interest in cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization below $1 billion.
"Still, overall, Altcoin CFD volumes have tripled with institutions showing a clear interest in cryptos with a market cap below $1 billion."
Pending
Bitcoin and Ethereum have regained institutional appeal due to significant accumulation by governments (e.g., El Salvador) and corporations (e.g., Strategy).
"BTC and ETH have regained appeal with institutions driven by heavy accumulation from governments like El Salvador and corporations like Strategy."
Pending
Retail investors are actively investing in altcoin narratives such as decentralized AI, DeFi, and Deepen.
"Meanwhile, retail investors free from the same restrictions have been rotating into altcoin narratives, including the likes of decentralized AI, DeFi, Deepen, and others."
Pending
Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 in early 2025, contributing to heightened market optimism.
"2025 began with heightened optimism as BTC broke through $100,000."
Pending
Cryptocurrency natives are exhibiting more caution in early 2025 compared to early 2024 due to a lack of prominent speculative narratives.
"Meanwhile, crypto natives are more cautious than in early 2024 due to a lack of standout speculative narratives."
Pending
Investment capital across all investor types (retail, institutional, TradFi) has been consolidating around nine specific cryptocurrency sectors.
"capital has been consolidating around nine specific sectors."
Pending
Capital has become more concentrated in three key areas: currency networks, general-purpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools.
"capital became more concentrated in three areas: currency networks, generalpurpose blockchain networks, and blockchain utility and tools."
Pending
Smaller sectors like Deepen and CFI have experienced the largest declines in capital allocation.
"Elsewhere, smaller sectors like Deepen and CFI saw the largest declines."
Pending
Retail investors are shifting towards emerging narratives, including stablecoins.
"Notably, retail investors move to emerging narratives, which apparently includes stable coins."
Pending
Legacy memecoins like Doge and SHIB are losing market share to newer memecoins like Bonk, Wiff, and Popcat, leading to increased fragmentation in OTC memecoin trading.
"As legacy memes like Doge or SHIB continue to lose dominance to memes like Bonk, Wiff, and Popcat, OTC meme trading has become more fragmented."
Pending
The share of smaller, long-tail memecoins in total OTC flow has increased significantly, indicating fragmentation within the memecoin market.
"This is evidenced by the share of smaller longtail meme coins, rising from 0.7% to 16.1% of total flow."
Pending
The expansion of memecoin trading is predominantly driven by retail investors, with 23 memecoins now available for OTC trading.
"Unsurprisingly, this memecoin expansion was almost entirely driven by retail with 23 memes now being traded OTC."
Pending
Within the blockchain utilities and tools sector, interoperability and scalability cryptos are trending upwards, while data and analytics providers are trending downwards.
"In the blockchain utilities and tools sector, the subsectors that have seen the uptrend are interoperability cryptos and scalability cryptos. Meanwhile, the data and analytics providers are the only sub- sector within the utilities and tools narrative that reportedly saw a downtrend."
Pending
Three subsectors within the DeFi narrative are experiencing an uptrend: asset origination and issuance, DeFi infrastructure and data, and managed yield services.
"In the DeFi narrative, three subsectors were in an uptrend and none were in a downtrend. These growing sub-sectors include asset origination and issuance cryptos, defy infrastructure and data and managed yield services."
Pending
Within the Deepen sector, computation-related cryptos are growing, while storage-related cryptos are declining.
"In the deeper narrative, one sub sector grew while another declined. The area that grew was computation while storage cryptos were in a downtrend."
Pending
No subsectors within the media, arts, and entertainment sector experienced an uptrend; specifically, the metaverse subsector saw a downtrend.
"Now, as for the media, arts and entertainment sector, unfortunately, no subsectors experienced an uptrend, but the metaverse subsector saw a downtrend, which isn't too surprising all things considered."
Pending
The altcoin market is expected to rally significantly, with many cryptocurrencies reaching new all-time highs, potentially exceeding current expectations.
"the altcoin market is finally showing signs of life with many cryptos finally getting the long overdue rally that investors everywhere have been praying for."
Pending
The US has increased regulatory clarity in the crypto market with the signing of the Genius Act, specifically addressing stable coins.
"the US has taken greater steps towards regulatory clarity with President Trump signing the Genius Act into law on the 18th of July, providing some much needed clarity on stable coins."
Pending
The Clarity Act is expected to exempt digital commodities on mature blockchains from the Securities Act of 1933 and transfer market oversight from the SEC to the CFTC.
"the Clarity Act aims to make digital commodities on mature blockchains exempt from the outdated Securities Act of 1933 and hands market oversight from the SEC over to the CFTC."
Pending
There is legislative action in the US aiming to prevent the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
"Representative Tom Emmer's bill to block the Fed from launching a dystopian style central bank digital currency or CBDC."
Pending
Increased institutional and traditional investor capital entering the crypto market, combined with current rallies, suggests many altcoins could reach new, unexpectedly high all-time highs.
"this will attract even more market institutional and traditional investors, meaning huge amounts of capital flowing into the crypto market. And given that cryptos are already starting to rally like crazy, this suggests that many altcoins could rally to new all-time highs, even higher than many are expecting."
Pending
A systemically important bank (Standard Chartered) has begun offering direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to clients.
"Standard Chartered's most recent announcement that it would start offering Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to clients means that this prediction came true after all, as it's technically considered to be a systemically important bank."
Pending
It is considered likely that FANG companies (Meta, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet) will eventually launch their own tokens or integrate with major exchanges as a next step in tokenized fractionalization.
"While admittedly more in the moonshot category, we view this as the natural next step in the evolution of tokenized fractionalization."
Pending
Institutions are focusing on larger cryptocurrencies, while retail investors are increasingly investing in smaller altcoins.
"Institutions stick with larger cryptos while retail pushed deeper into smaller altcoins."
Pending
Over-the-counter (OTC) trading volumes for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) from traditional finance (TradFi) institutions have increased by 32% year-on-year.
"Wintermute recorded a 32% increase yearon-year in OTC volumes from Tradfi institutions for these tokenized RWAs."
Pending
Over-the-counter (OTC) options trading experienced a 412% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024.
"the report also highlights a 412% jump in OTC options trading compared to the first half of 2024."
Pending
The number of traded contracts for difference (CFDs) has doubled.
"Moreover, the number of traded contracts for difference or CFDs has doubled."
Pending
The US elections in Q4 2024 contributed to a rally, with momentum stabilizing after President Trump's inauguration in early 2025.
"The report attributes 2024's Q4 rally to the US elections, but says momentum steadied after President Trump's inauguration."
Pending
Institutional investors favor executing large trades through over-the-counter (OTC) markets rather than on centralized exchanges.
"indicating that institutional investors prefer executing large trades outside of exchanges."
Pending
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives have experienced significant growth in the first half of 2025, primarily due to institutional demand.
"which have seen major growth in the first half of this year, largely driven by institutional demand."
Pending
Retail investors' share of OTC activity decreased from 46% in 2024 to 37% in 2025, while institutional allocation remained stable.
"Between 2024 and 2025, though, institutional allocation didn't budge, while retail fell further to 37%."
Pending
Broader market sentiment in the first half of 2025 was relatively muted due to the absence of a dominant theme, unlike the hype around memecoins and AI agents in 2024.
"meaning that broader market sentiment stayed relatively muted."
Pending
In 2025, institutions concentrated their OTC activity in the early months, while retail investors have since increased their activity by rotating into altcoins.
"this trend was reflected in 2025 OTC flows where institutions frontloaded activity in the first few months before easing off while retail has filled the void since by rotating into altcoins."
Pending
The shift in OTC spot flows towards institutions and retail brokers indicates that cryptocurrency is becoming more mainstream.
"OTC spot flows have moved towards institutions and retail brokers, which is evidence of crypto becoming more mainstream."
Pending
Mainstream financial advisors are advocating for increased allocation of portfolios to crypto, which is driving retail participation.
"mainstream advisory is pushing to allocate a higher share of portfolios to crypto, which is driving retail participation."
Pending
Of the nine predictions made by Wintermute for 2025, six were accurate, two were partially correct, and one was completely incorrect.
"All in all, there were nine predictions made. Six predictions turned out to be accurate. Two were partly correct and just one was completely wrong."
Pending