Will BRICS Replace the Dollar? Trump’s Tariff Threat Explained
Published: 2025-07-27
Status:
Available
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Analyzed
Published: 2025-07-27
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Mbridge platform, a CBDC project involving China, Thailand, UAE, and Hong Kong, reached minimum viable product stage in mid-2024.
"The Mbridge platform, the CBDC project link in China, Thailand, UAE, and Hong Kong, reached minimum viable product stage in mid 2024."
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BRICS Pay is projected to launch under Brazil's presidency, with claims of handling 20,000 messages per second, significantly exceeding Swift's capacity.
"BRICS Pay is supposedly launching this year under Brazil's presidency. They claim it can handle 20,000 messages per second, roughly 40 times Swift's current capacity of about 518 per second."
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The Mbridge platform, a CBDC project involving China, Thailand, UAE, and Hong Kong, achieved minimum viable product status by mid-2024.
"The Mbridge platform, the CBDC project link in China, Thailand, UAE, and Hong Kong, reached minimum viable product stage in mid 2024."
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BRICS Pay is expected to launch this year under Brazil's presidency, with claims of handling 20,000 messages per second, significantly exceeding SWIFT's capacity.
"Meanwhile, Bricks Pay is supposedly launching this year under Brazil's presidency. They claim it can handle 20,000 messages per second, roughly 40 times Swift's current capacity of about 518 per second."
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Intra-BRICS trade settled in local currencies has increased to approximately 90%, up from 65% two years prior.
"About 90% of intra-bricks trade is now settled in local currencies according to recent estimates. And that's up from 65% just 2 years ago."
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Approximately 90% of intra-BRICS trade is now settled in local currencies, an increase from 65% two years prior.
"About 90% of intra-bricks trade is now settled in local currencies according to recent estimates. And that's up from 65% just 2 years ago."
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BRICS' share of global SWIFT payments has risen to 6.4%.
"Bricks share of global swift payments has increased to 6.4%."
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BRICS' share of cross-bank settlement claims has increased to 15%.
"Their portion of crossber bank settlement claims has risen to 15%."
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BRICS' share of global SWIFT payments has risen to 6.4%.
"Bricks share of global swift payments has increased to 6.4%."
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BRICS' share of cross-border bank settlement claims has increased to 15%.
"Their portion of crossber bank settlement claims has risen to 15%."
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BRICS now represents 40% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms, compared to 28% for the G7.
"The block now accounts for 40% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms compared to 28% for the G7."
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BRICS now represents 40% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms, compared to 28% for the G7.
"The block now accounts for 40% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms compared to 28% for the G7."
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BRICS economies are growing at an annual rate of 4%, compared to 3.3% for the global economy.
"They're growing at 4% annually versus 3.3% for the global economy."
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US Treasury bonds are experiencing sell-offs during market stress, deviating from their historical role as a safe-haven asset.
"US Treasury bonds are selling off during periods of market stress instead of attracting flight to quality flows."
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US Treasury bonds are no longer automatically attracting capital during market stress, indicating a potential shift in their safe-haven status.
"US Treasury bonds are selling off during periods of market stress instead of attracting flight to quality flows."
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A single Trump tariff announcement led to $472.5 billion in US Treasury market trading volume and a 49 basis point spike in the 10-year yield, signaling reduced confidence in US debt.
"Trading volumes in the US Treasury market hit 472.5 billion on a single day after one of Trump's tariff announcements. The 10-year yield spiked 49 basis points."
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US Treasury market trading volumes reached $472.5 billion in a single day following a Trump tariff announcement.
"Trading volumes in the US Treasury market hit 472.5 billion on a single day after one of Trump's tariff announcements."
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The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 49 basis points.
"The 10-year yield spiked 49 basis points."
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A vast majority (97%) of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with Tether alone having over $130 billion in circulation.
"97% of them are dollar pegged. Now, Tether alone has over 130 billion in circulation."
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Russia and Iran expressed strong interest in developing their own stablecoins at last year's Kazan summit.
"At the Kazan summit last year, Russia and Iran were particularly vocal about developing their own stable coins"
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97% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar.
"97% of them are dollar pegged."
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Despite China's digital yuan development, its adoption faces significant challenges due to the established dominance and integration of Alipay and WeChat Pay among consumers.
"China's got its digital yuan, but adoption has been front-run by the Alipay and WeChat pay duopoly. These private payment platforms are already deeply integrated into the lives of Chinese consumers, giving the CBDC a steep hill to climb."
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Tether (USDT) has over $130 billion in circulation.
"Now, Tether alone has over 130 billion in circulation."
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India's official policy is not to de-dollarize, and they are open to trading in rupees when it is advantageous.
"DD dollarization is quote not our policy or strategy. India is happy to trade in rupees when it suits them."
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Russia and Iran expressed strong interest in developing their own stablecoins at last year's Kazan summit.
"At the Kazan summit last year, Russia and Iran were particularly vocal about developing their own stable coins"
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China continues to hold over $700 billion in US Treasury securities, despite discussions about de-risking from the dollar.
"China, for all its talk about de-risisking from the dollar and building alternative systems, still holds over $700 billion in US Treasury securities."
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India's IT sector, a major revenue generator, is heavily reliant on Western clients paying in US dollars.
"India's IT sector alone generates over $200 billion in revenue per year, mostly from Western clients paying in dollars."
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BRICS central banks made record gold purchases in 2024.
"BRICS central banks bought more gold in 2024 than any year on record."
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China continues to hold over $700 billion in US Treasury securities, a reduction from over a trillion in prior years.
"China still holds over $700 billion in US Treasury securities. That's down from over a trillion a few years ago."
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Saudi Arabia has begun accepting Chinese yuan for oil sales to China.
"Saudi Arabia is accepting yuan for oil sales to China."
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Donald Trump believes that by applying maximum pressure, he can maintain BRICS' fragmentation and defensiveness indefinitely due to existing divisions.
"Trump's betting that these divisions are insurmountable and that by applying maximum pressure now he can keep bricks fragmented and defensive indefinitely."
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Saudi Arabia continues to recycle petrodollars, and its currency remains pegged to the US dollar.
"Saudi Arabia is recycling petro dollars and their currency is pegged to the greenback."
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Egypt relies on American military aid for its financial stability.
"Egypt dependent on American military aid."
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Historical precedents suggest that no global reserve currency, including the US dollar (currently at 80 years), lasts forever, referencing the British pound, Spanish Royale, Dutch Gilda, and Byzantine Solidus as past examples.
"They don't last forever. The British pound dominated global trade for over a century until it didn't. Before that, it was the Spanish Royale, the Dutch Gilda, the Byzantine Solidus. All of them seemed permanent until suddenly they weren't. The dollar has had an incredible run, 80 years as the world reserve currency."
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The US dollar's reserve currency status was built on specific factors including American military power, deep financial markets, rule of law, and the lack of viable alternatives.
"But that dominance was built on specific circumstance. the United States's military empire, deep and liquid financial markets, strong rule of law, and most importantly, the absence of viable alternatives."
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Ethiopia requires bailouts from the International Monetary Fund.
"Ethiopia needs IMF bailouts."
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Circumstances supporting dollar dominance are shifting, with increased challenges to American power, changes in financial markets reducing US control, and the development of alternatives.
"But those circumstances are changing. American power is more contested than it's been since World War II. Financial markets are digesting in ways that reduce US control, and alternatives, however flawed and fragmented, are being built."
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Iran's use of cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions has yielded mixed results.
"Iran using crypto to evade sanctions with results that charitably could be called mixed."
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BRICS central banks made record gold purchases in 2024, indicating a potential move away from dollar-denominated assets.
"BRICS central banks bought more gold in 2024 than any year on record."
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As trust in fiat currencies declines and nations seek neutral alternatives, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies stand to benefit significantly.
"The opportunity is obvious as trust in fiat currencies erodes and countries look for neutral alternatives. Bitcoin and crypto could benefit massively."
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China is consistently decreasing its holdings of US Treasury securities.
"China's been systematically reducing its Treasury holdings."
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In countries facing sanctions, crypto acts as a lifeline to global markets, and each instance of sanctions, tariff threats, or frozen accounts potentially creates new crypto users.
"We already see in this in countries under sanctions where crypto provides a lifeline to global markets. Every sanctions regime, every tariff threat, every frozen bank account creates another crypto convert."
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If cryptocurrencies pose a genuine threat to dollar dominance, the subsequent response is predicted to be far more severe than current tariff threats.
"If crypto truly threatens dollar dominance, expect the response to make Trump's current tariff threats look like a gentle suggestion."
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Russia and Iran are settling oil trade transactions using Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupees.
"Russia and Iran are trading oil in yuan and rupes."
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The BRICS initiative demonstrates the significant challenges in altering the global financial system, even with substantial economic power and motivation, as they struggle to establish functional alternatives.
"What BRICS shows us is just how hard it is to change the global financial system. Even with regime grievances, massive economic power, and clear motivation, they're struggling to build functioning alternatives."
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Saudi Arabia is now accepting Chinese Yuan for its oil sales to China.
"Saudi Arabia is accepting yuan for oil sales to China."
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Historically, significant and seemingly impossible financial shifts have occurred, such as the end of the gold standard in 1975, the implementation of negative interest rates, and Bitcoin reaching $100,000, indicating that major changes are possible.
"But impossible things happen all the time in finance. Nobody thought the gold standard would end until Nixon killed it in 1975. Nobody thought negative interest rates were possible until Europe and Japan made them a reality. Few thought a single Bitcoin would be worth $100,000 until it happened."
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Global sanctions, tariff threats, and frozen bank accounts are driving individuals and entities towards cryptocurrency adoption.
"Every sanctions regime, every tariff threat, every frozen bank account creates another crypto convert."
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A gradual transformation of the global financial system is underway.
"We're witnessing the slow motion transformation of the global financial system."
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The speaker references the past prediction that a single Bitcoin would reach $100,000, implying it has already occurred or is within a plausible future scenario.
"Few thought a single Bitcoin would be worth $100,000 until it happened."
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