The Secrets Behind the Token Launches That Took Off
Published: 2025-08-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-08-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Early relative strength against Bitcoin is a strong predictor of a token's future performance.
"Tokens that beat BTC in their first couple of weeks trading tend to keep pulling ahead, while those that stumbled out of the gate almost never made up the ground."
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Negative early price action for tokens can create a self-reinforcing downward spiral due to panic and liquidity provider withdrawal.
"Early red candles cause more people to panic. Bad price action spooks liquidity providers. Spreads widen and that momentum to the downside can result in a very red chart in no time at all."
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Early relative strength against Bitcoin is a strong indicator of a token's future performance, with outperforming tokens likely to continue their upward trajectory, while underperforming tokens are unlikely to recover.
"Tokens that beat BTC in their first couple of weeks trading tend to keep pulling ahead, while those that stumbled out of the gate almost never made up the ground."
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A token launching at a 1200% premium to its private sale price resulted in a 25% loss by the end of the study period.
"token launched at a whopping 1,200% above the price secured by investors in its last private raise. Sure enough, the token hit the finish line of the study period at a 25% loss."
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Berachain's token, despite high hype and a $4.3 billion FDV at launch, was the worst performer, ending with a 74% loss.
"Bera chains token opened public trading at a massive $4.3 billion fully diluted valuation. Despite being the most hyped token launched, at least according to the authors, bearer was the worst performing token of all, finishing the study period at a 74% loss."
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Token launches with significant markups for the public compared to private investors typically perform poorly, unless the product has strong market fit.
"Heavy public premiums generally doom price action unless product market fit is undeniably real."
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IP and Initia, with modest launch markups, remained profitable, with IP outperforming Bitcoin.
"By contrast, IP and init opened at modest markups and stayed in the green with IP even outperforming BTC over the stretch of the study."
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Launching a new token immediately after a substantial Bitcoin rally is likely to result in poor performance due to market exhaustion. Conversely, launching when Bitcoin is trading sideways offers a better chance for the new token to gain traction.
"Launching straight after a big BTC rally can wind up sucking oxygen out of the debuting coin, while flat price action can offer calmer waters."
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Projects with the lowest initial circulating supply (less than 20% at launch) were more likely to end in the green.
"Two out of the four projects that ended in the green had the lowest initial circulating supplies, and they were the only projects to float less than 20% of tokens at launch."
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Initia, with 14.9% circulating supply at launch and a shallow vesting cliff, maintained its listing price through May.
"Initias in it had the lowest circulating supply at launch with 14.9% but kept the vesting cliff very shallow. It launched at a conservative valuation, let retail through a Binance launch pool and surprise surprise held its listing price through May."
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A sharp decline in trading volume after the first day is a strong predictor of future price declines for a new token.
"And when day one volume dries up faster than a meme coin in a bare market, price usually follows."
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Story Protocols IP demonstrated that significant volume drop-off does not always correlate with price decline, as it maintained strong gains despite an 86% reduction in daily volume from its opening month.
"Story Protocols IP was the true exception. Daily volumes for IP had shrunk 86% from its opening month, despite the token still sitting at nearly double its launch price."
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Tokens launched immediately after significant Bitcoin rallies (e.g., 35%) are prone to decline, as seen with Space and Time's SXT losing 29%.
"When a token launches right after a big BTC rally, fresh tokens can walk into a hangover. Space and Times SXT was a clear example of this. It entered the market just after a 35% BTC moonshot and then proceeded to sink 29% in a few weeks."
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Zora experienced a significant loss of 66% by the end of the study period, even after a milder Bitcoin rally.
"Zora's launch followed a milder but still bullish trend and faceplanted just as decisively going on to end the study period at a 66% loss."
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Tokens with positive returns experienced less severe volume drops, while tokens with significant volume declines generally posted negative returns.
"Tokens that saw positive returns saw lower volume drop off as a group. By contrast, almost all of the tokens that saw a drop in volume posted negative returns, while big volume drop offs typically came with big price declines."
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Initia's low initial circulating supply (14.9%) combined with a shallow vesting cliff contributed to its positive performance.
"Initia's in it had the lowest circulating supply at launch with 14.9% but kept the vesting cliff very shallow."
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Projects with lower initial circulating supplies (less than 20% at launch) were more likely to end in the green.
"Two out of the four projects that ended in the green had the lowest initial circulating supplies, and they were the only projects to float less than 20% of tokens at launch."
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IP and WCT successfully launched and gained when Bitcoin was trading sideways, indicating less market pressure.
"IP and WCT went live when Bitcoin was chopping sideways. Expectations were muted, the spotlight was smaller, and both tokens found room to rally and ended the study as the top two gainers."
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Pre-launch Bitcoin euphoria increases the probability of a new token's downside performance.
"Euphoric BTC candles before a launch push the odds a bit more toward the downside for the token."
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Space and Times SXT experienced a 29% price drop within weeks of its launch, following a 35% Bitcoin rally, illustrating the negative impact of launching after a significant BTC surge.
"Space and Times SXT was a clear example of this. It entered the market just after a 35% BTC moonshot and then proceeded to sink 29% in a few weeks."
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Exercise caution with new token launches if Bitcoin has recently rallied by over 20% and shows signs of exhaustion.
"If Bitcoin has just rallied by 20 plus% and begins to show signs of exhaustion, it's probably best to treat any imminent token launch with some caution."
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Zora, despite launching after a milder Bitcoin rally, also experienced a significant price decline, ending the study period with a 66% loss.
"Zora's launch followed a milder but still bullish trend and faceplanted just as decisively going on to end the study period at a 66% loss."
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A stable or 'dozing' Bitcoin market provides a clearer path for new token launches to achieve significant gains.
"On the other hand, if BTC is dozing and not doing very much, the launch has a cleaner route towards some considerable gains."
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Protocols like IP and WCT performed well by launching when Bitcoin was trading sideways, benefiting from lower expectations and less market scrutiny.
"IP and WCT went live when Bitcoin was chopping sideways. Expectations were muted, the spotlight was smaller, and both tokens found room to rally and ended the study as the top two gainers."
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A new token outperforming Bitcoin while Bitcoin is trading sideways is a highly positive signal.
"Early outperformance while Bitcoin goes sideways is combustible in the best way."
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Caution is advised for imminent token launches if Bitcoin has recently rallied by over 20% and shows signs of exhaustion.
"If Bitcoin has just rallied by 20 plus% and begins to show signs of exhaustion, it's probably best to treat any imminent token launch with some caution."
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Early weakness in a new token immediately following a Bitcoin spike is a strong negative indicator.
"By contrast, early weakness right after a BTC spike is a flashing red sign."
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A token launch is more likely to achieve significant gains if Bitcoin is trading quietly and not experiencing major price movements.
"On the other hand, if BTC is dozing and not doing very much, the launch has a cleaner route towards some considerable gains."
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A new token showing strong performance while Bitcoin is stagnant creates a highly positive scenario for substantial gains.
"Early outperformance while Bitcoin goes sideways is combustible in the best way."
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Tokens with positive returns experienced less volume decline, while tokens with significant volume drops generally posted negative returns and price declines.
"Tokens that saw positive returns saw lower volume drop off as a group. By contrast, almost all of the tokens that saw a drop in volume posted negative returns, while big volume drop offs typically came with big price declines."
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Early underperformance of a new token immediately following a Bitcoin price surge is a strong negative indicator.
"By contrast, early weakness right after a BTC spike is a flashing red sign."
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A sharp drop in trading volume (e.g., halving in the first month) even with rising prices signals fading interest and a potential price slide.
"If that energy drops off sharply though, like if volume falls by half in the first month and the price is moving up, it's a sign that interest is fading and the token is more likely to keep on sliding."
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Berachain and Redstone tokens experienced significant volume evaporation (over 70%), which was followed by corresponding price declines.
"Berachain and Redstone's respective tokens both watched their volumes evaporate by over 70% according to the study and their price charts clearly followed suit."
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A sharp decrease in trading volume (e.g., halving in the first month) even while the price is rising, indicates fading interest and a higher probability of future price declines.
"If that energy drops off sharply though, like if volume falls by half in the first month and the price is moving up, it's a sign that interest is fading and the token is more likely to keep on sliding."
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If Bitcoin is declining after a rally and the token's trading volume has collapsed, it's advisable to wait for a more opportune moment to invest.
"If Bitcoin is cooling after a rally and the token's trading volume just fell through the floor, that's certainly a signal to wait for a better opportunity."
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If Bitcoin is showing signs of cooling down after a rally and a new token's trading volume has drastically decreased, it is advisable to wait for a more favorable market opportunity.
"If Bitcoin is cooling after a rally and the token's trading volume just fell through the floor, that's certainly a signal to wait for a better opportunity."
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High public premiums for token launches usually lead to poor price action, unless the product has undeniable market fit.
"Heavy public premiums generally doom price action unless product market fit is undeniably real."
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Early outperformance by Bitcoin is a positive sign for new tokens, while early underperformance by Bitcoin often leads to negative price action for new tokens.
"Early Bitcoin outperformance is the cleanest bullish tell, and early Bitcoin underperformance often leads to more red candles."
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Launching a token immediately after a significant Bitcoin rally can be detrimental, whereas a stable Bitcoin market offers a more favorable environment.
"Launching straight after a big BTC rally can wind up sucking oxygen out of the debuting coin, while flat price action can offer calmer waters."
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Zora, despite being a significant loser in the initial study period, later achieved a 10x return, suggesting that a poor start does not guarantee long-term failure.
"Zora was one of the biggest losers in the study, but has since gone on to 10x."
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A rapid decline in day-one trading volume typically precedes a price drop for new tokens.
"And when day one volume dries up faster than a meme coin in a bare market, price usually follows."
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Zora, despite being a major loser in the studied period, later achieved a 10x return.
"Zora was one of the biggest losers in the study, but has since gone on to 10x."
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