ilmscore | Economy Weakening: What It Means For The Crypto Market

Economy Weakening: What It Means For The Crypto Market

Published: 2025-09-12
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 13
Correct: 6
Incorrect: 5
Pending: 2
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin is considered to be in a strong position, despite the lack of guarantees.
"No guarantees, but Bitcoin is well positioned."
BTC
Incorrect
Expected interest rate cuts are predicted to benefit risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin.
"Rate cuts support risk assets. Stocks and Bitcoin are well placed."
BTC
Incorrect
The US labor market could experience a rapid decline if current weakening trends accelerate.
"If this labor market keeps weakening, we could see a cliff drop rather than a gradual decline we've seen so far."
US Labor Market
Pending
Markets anticipate a 0.25% interest rate cut in September, with a 12% probability of a 0.5% cut.
"Markets are reading this Labor data as a guaranteed September rate cut. At least a 0.25% is locked in with around a 12% odds of a 0.5% cut as I'm recording this video."
US Interest Rates
Incorrect
In the US, the number of job seekers has surpassed the number of job openings, a situation not seen since 2021.
"For the first time since 2021, there are more people hunting for work in the world's largest economy than there are jobs available."
US Labor Market
Pending
US stocks are at all-time highs, which is unusual given typical patterns where unemployment lags falling stock markets during crises.
"Stocks are basically at all-time highs. Unemployment typically lags falling stock markets in crisis."
US Stock Market
Correct
If immigration is reduced, US job growth could fall to 60,000 per month over the next six months, which is below healthy levels.
"If migrant flows get curtailed, potential job growth could drop to 60,000 per month over the next 6 months, way below what most analysts consider healthy."
US Labor Market
Incorrect
The SAM rule, which indicates a recession is near if the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, has not been triggered yet, suggesting the economy is currently stable.
"if 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% above its 12 month low, recession is near. We're nowhere close to triggering this yet, so it suggests things are okay."
Recession Indicator
Incorrect
The Fed faces a dilemma: cutting interest rates too little or too late could lead to a hard landing, while cutting too much could re-ignite inflation.
"Cut too little or late, hard landing. Cut too much, reignited inflation."
US Interest Rates
Correct
Current weak payroll growth and rising unemployment suggest further interest rate cuts are expected, aligning with typical economic cycle predictions.
"For now, weak payroll growth plus higher unemployment equals more cuts priced in. Exactly what textbooks predict at this part of the cycle."
US Interest Rates
Correct
Expected interest rate cuts are predicted to benefit risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin.
"Rate cuts support risk assets. Stocks and Bitcoin are well placed."
US Stock Market
Correct
The US dollar is expected to weaken, which would positively impact risk assets.
"Dollar weakness likely persists, supporting risk assets."
US Dollar
Correct
Gold is expected to perform well whether the economic landing is soft or bad, unless there is a complete market collapse.
"If landing is soft or bad, gold likely benefits, except in a total wipeout scenario."
Gold
Correct