ilmscore | The CAUSE Of The Next Financial Crisis REVEALED!

The CAUSE Of The Next Financial Crisis REVEALED!

Predictions from this Video

Total: 20
Correct: 9
Incorrect: 2
Pending: 9
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Commercial real estate sector is in a worse state than in 2008, with 12% of US office loans defaulting and apartment loan defaults doubling in the last year. A trillion dollars of commercial real estate needs refinancing by December at unsustainable rates.
"Commercial real estate or CRA is now more screwed  than it was in 2008. Nearly 12% of US office loans   are dead. Apartment loan defaults doubled in  the last year and a trillion dollar of CRA   needs refinancing by December at rates that make  the maths impossible."
Commercial Real Estate Defaults
Pending
Private equity has raised $400 billion for what they anticipate to be the biggest distressed cycle in 40 years.
"private equity  has assembled a $400 billion war chest for what  they're calling quote the greatest distressed   cycle in 40 years."
Private Equity Distressed Cycle
Correct
A trillion dollars of commercial real estate debt needs to be refinanced by December 2024, with current rates making it mathematically unfeasible.
"a trillion dollar of CRA   needs refinancing by December at rates that make  the maths impossible."
Commercial Real Estate Refinancing
Pending
The delinquency rate for US office loans has reached 11.7%, surpassing the peak of 10.7% seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
"the delinquency rate for  office loans hit 11.7% last month. That's worse  than the 10.7% peak during the 2008 financial   crisis."
Commercial Real Estate Office Loan Delinquency
Correct
46% of securitized multifamily loans maturing by the end of 2025 are projected to be insolvent, representing $47.3 billion in underwater apartment loans.
"46% of securitized multif family  loans maturing by the end of 2025 are insolvent."
Commercial Real Estate Multifamily Loan Insolvency
Pending
Total commercial real estate distress reached $116 billion by March 2025, a decade high and a 23% increase year-over-year.
"total CRA distress hit  $116 billion by March 2025, the highest in over   a decade and up 23% year-over-year."
Commercial Real Estate Total Distress
Correct
A total of $1.5 trillion in US commercial real estate loans are due for repayment or refinancing by the end of 2025.
"$1.5 trillion in US commercial real estate loans need to be repaid or refinanced by the end of 2025."
Commercial Real Estate Loan Maturities
Incorrect
The funding gap for commercial real estate loan refinancing is estimated to be between $200 billion and $400 billion.
"The funding gap between what's  owed and what can be refinanced ranges from 200 to   $400 billion."
Commercial Real Estate Loan Refinancing Gap
Pending
Hundreds of regional US banks are predicted to fail and disappear without the bailouts seen in 2008.
"we'll just watch hundreds of  regional US banks quietly disappear instead.   And unlike 2008 when big banks got rescued, these  small banks will vanish without a trace."
Regional Bank Failures
Incorrect
1,788 US banks have a commercial real estate to equity ratio exceeding 300%, with 216 banks exceeding 600%, indicating significant regulatory risk.
"1,788 banks now exceed the regulatory danger zone  of 300% CRA to equity ratio. Even worse, 216 banks  exceed 600%."
Banks Exceeding Regulatory Danger Zone
Pending
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, a major German commercial property lender, is exiting the US market in June 2025, incurring a €4.1 billion loss.
"Deutsche Fund Brief Bank, one of Germany's largest  commercial property lenders, announced in June   2025 that it's completely exiting the US market.  They're eating a 4.1 billion euro portfolio loss,   just writing it off and walking away."
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank Exiting US Market
Correct
Hundreds of small US banks will fail or be forced into distressed mergers over the next three years.
"It'll  be a grinding process of hundreds of small  banks quietly failing or being forced into   distressed mergers over the next 3 years."
Small Bank Failures and Mergers
Pending
Private equity firms have accumulated $400 billion in 'dry powder,' with 64% of it specifically earmarked for North America.
"Private equities war chest has grown  to $400 billion in dry powder with 64% targeted   specifically at North America."
Private Equity Real Estate Fund Dry Powder
Correct
Brookfield has raised a record $16 billion distressed real estate fund and deployed $1.8 billion in Q1 2025.
"Brookfield  just raised a record $16 billion distressed real   estate fund, deploying $1.8 billion in Q1 2025  alone."
Brookfield Distressed Real Estate Fund
Correct
KKR has launched an $850 million opportunistic fund.
"KKR launched an $850  million opportunistic fund"
KKR Opportunistic Fund
Correct
Cottonwood has closed a $1 billion fund for special situations, which is already generating 20% returns.
"Cottonwood closed  $1 billion for special situations, already  generating 20% returns."
Cottonwood Special Situations Fund
Pending
Private equity firms are expected to buy distressed real estate assets at steep discounts (around 30 cents on the dollar), convert them into different uses like luxury apartments or logistics hubs, or repurpose failed bank branches into other businesses.
"The playbook is clinical in its  exploitation. Wait for desperation to peak. Buy   at 30 cents on the dollar. Evict existing tenants  and execute the conversion play. That dead office   building becomes luxury micro apartments. A  failure can become a lastmile logistics hub.   A branch of a failed bank can transform into an  urgent care clinic charging $400 to tell you it's  just a cold."
Private Equity Real Estate Acquisition Strategy
Correct
Private equity firms are exploiting government programs like Freddie Mac's workforce housing initiative and office-to-residential conversion tax breaks to acquire distressed properties, renovate them, and increase rents, prioritizing luxury units over affordable housing.
"PE firms  are gaming Freddy Mack's workforce  housing initiative, buying distressed apartments,   cosmetically upgrading them, then jacking rents  to the maximum workforce threshold. Meanwhile,   office to residential conversion tax breaks meant  to solve the urban housing crisis are being sucked   up by PE shops, creating luxury units rather  than affordable housing."
Private Equity Use of Government Programs
Correct
The outlook suggests a decade of credit contraction, the continued existence of 'zombie banks,' and private equity taking over a significant portion of the remaining commercial real estate market.
"It's looking like a decade of  credit contraction, zombie banks stumbling along,   and private equity colonizing what remains."
Credit Contraction and Zombie Banks
Pending
Five private equity firms are predicted to collectively control more commercial real estate than the next 50 combined, owning key assets like offices, apartments, and warehouses.
"Five  firms will control more commercial real estate  than the next 50 combined. They'll own the   offices where you work, the apartments where you  live, the warehouses that deliver your goods."
Private Equity Dominance in Commercial Real Estate
Pending