The CAUSE Of The Next Financial Crisis REVEALED!
Published: 2025-10-28
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-10-28
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 2
Prediction
Topic
Status
Commercial real estate sector is in a worse state than in 2008, with 12% of US office loans defaulting and apartment loan defaults doubling in the last year. A trillion dollars of commercial real estate needs refinancing by December at unsustainable rates.
"Commercial real estate or CRA is now more screwed than it was in 2008. Nearly 12% of US office loans are dead. Apartment loan defaults doubled in the last year and a trillion dollar of CRA needs refinancing by December at rates that make the maths impossible."
Pending
Private equity has raised $400 billion for what they anticipate to be the biggest distressed cycle in 40 years.
"private equity has assembled a $400 billion war chest for what they're calling quote the greatest distressed cycle in 40 years."
Correct
A trillion dollars of commercial real estate debt needs to be refinanced by December 2024, with current rates making it mathematically unfeasible.
"a trillion dollar of CRA needs refinancing by December at rates that make the maths impossible."
Pending
The delinquency rate for US office loans has reached 11.7%, surpassing the peak of 10.7% seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
"the delinquency rate for office loans hit 11.7% last month. That's worse than the 10.7% peak during the 2008 financial crisis."
Correct
46% of securitized multifamily loans maturing by the end of 2025 are projected to be insolvent, representing $47.3 billion in underwater apartment loans.
"46% of securitized multif family loans maturing by the end of 2025 are insolvent."
Pending
Total commercial real estate distress reached $116 billion by March 2025, a decade high and a 23% increase year-over-year.
"total CRA distress hit $116 billion by March 2025, the highest in over a decade and up 23% year-over-year."
Correct
A total of $1.5 trillion in US commercial real estate loans are due for repayment or refinancing by the end of 2025.
"$1.5 trillion in US commercial real estate loans need to be repaid or refinanced by the end of 2025."
Incorrect
The funding gap for commercial real estate loan refinancing is estimated to be between $200 billion and $400 billion.
"The funding gap between what's owed and what can be refinanced ranges from 200 to $400 billion."
Pending
Hundreds of regional US banks are predicted to fail and disappear without the bailouts seen in 2008.
"we'll just watch hundreds of regional US banks quietly disappear instead. And unlike 2008 when big banks got rescued, these small banks will vanish without a trace."
Incorrect
1,788 US banks have a commercial real estate to equity ratio exceeding 300%, with 216 banks exceeding 600%, indicating significant regulatory risk.
"1,788 banks now exceed the regulatory danger zone of 300% CRA to equity ratio. Even worse, 216 banks exceed 600%."
Pending
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, a major German commercial property lender, is exiting the US market in June 2025, incurring a €4.1 billion loss.
"Deutsche Fund Brief Bank, one of Germany's largest commercial property lenders, announced in June 2025 that it's completely exiting the US market. They're eating a 4.1 billion euro portfolio loss, just writing it off and walking away."
Correct
Hundreds of small US banks will fail or be forced into distressed mergers over the next three years.
"It'll be a grinding process of hundreds of small banks quietly failing or being forced into distressed mergers over the next 3 years."
Pending
Private equity firms have accumulated $400 billion in 'dry powder,' with 64% of it specifically earmarked for North America.
"Private equities war chest has grown to $400 billion in dry powder with 64% targeted specifically at North America."
Correct
Brookfield has raised a record $16 billion distressed real estate fund and deployed $1.8 billion in Q1 2025.
"Brookfield just raised a record $16 billion distressed real estate fund, deploying $1.8 billion in Q1 2025 alone."
Correct
KKR has launched an $850 million opportunistic fund.
"KKR launched an $850 million opportunistic fund"
Correct
Cottonwood has closed a $1 billion fund for special situations, which is already generating 20% returns.
"Cottonwood closed $1 billion for special situations, already generating 20% returns."
Pending
Private equity firms are expected to buy distressed real estate assets at steep discounts (around 30 cents on the dollar), convert them into different uses like luxury apartments or logistics hubs, or repurpose failed bank branches into other businesses.
"The playbook is clinical in its exploitation. Wait for desperation to peak. Buy at 30 cents on the dollar. Evict existing tenants and execute the conversion play. That dead office building becomes luxury micro apartments. A failure can become a lastmile logistics hub. A branch of a failed bank can transform into an urgent care clinic charging $400 to tell you it's just a cold."
Correct
Private equity firms are exploiting government programs like Freddie Mac's workforce housing initiative and office-to-residential conversion tax breaks to acquire distressed properties, renovate them, and increase rents, prioritizing luxury units over affordable housing.
"PE firms are gaming Freddy Mack's workforce housing initiative, buying distressed apartments, cosmetically upgrading them, then jacking rents to the maximum workforce threshold. Meanwhile, office to residential conversion tax breaks meant to solve the urban housing crisis are being sucked up by PE shops, creating luxury units rather than affordable housing."
Correct
The outlook suggests a decade of credit contraction, the continued existence of 'zombie banks,' and private equity taking over a significant portion of the remaining commercial real estate market.
"It's looking like a decade of credit contraction, zombie banks stumbling along, and private equity colonizing what remains."
Pending
Five private equity firms are predicted to collectively control more commercial real estate than the next 50 combined, owning key assets like offices, apartments, and warehouses.
"Five firms will control more commercial real estate than the next 50 combined. They'll own the offices where you work, the apartments where you live, the warehouses that deliver your goods."
Pending