The Debasement Trade: The Death Of Fiat Currency?
Published: 2025-11-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-11-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 3
Prediction
Topic
Status
US ETF inflows are estimated to reach $1.4 trillion in 2025, indicating a record year for automatic buying in equity funds.
"US ETF flows are on pace for a record year with State Street estimating as much as $1.4 trillion in 2025, an avalanche of automatic buying across broad equity funds."
Incorrect
In 2024, 64% of 401k contributions were directed into equity-heavy funds.
"Vanguard's How America Saves report showed that in 2024, 64% of 401k contributions went into such funds, which are very equityheavy for most workers."
Correct
New 401k auto-enrollment rules starting in 2025 will direct 3-10% of worker pay into markets.
"Congress also hardwired fresh inflows with auto enrollment rules for new 401ks starting in 2025, pushing 3 to 10% of pay straight into markets unless workers opt out."
Correct
US companies are expected to repurchase approximately $1 trillion of their shares in 2025.
"Citadel Securities expects US companies to repurchase roughly $1 trillion of their own shares in 2025."
Pending
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in 2024, are seeing significant inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT approaching $100 billion in assets.
"US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024, and the biggest one, Black Rockcks IBIT, has ballooned towards the $100 billion mark."
Incorrect
Spot Ethereum ETFs have launched, providing a compliant avenue for investors to gain exposure to crypto.
"Spot Ethereum ETFs launched soon after, giving another category of savers a compliant way to express a pro- crypto view from a brokerage account."
Incorrect
Central banks purchased 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of purchases exceeding 1,000 tons.
"central banks bought 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, the third straight year above 1,000 tons."
Correct
US net interest costs on its debt in 2025 will surpass defense spending.
"For the US, net interest costs on its debt burden in 2025 exceed defense costs, an alarming milestone that puts the cost of past borrowing ahead of current military spending."
Pending
Congressional Budget Office projects US interest costs on debt to remain high for years.
"official stats from the Congressional Budget Office project interest staying heavy for years."
Correct
Global debt is projected to remain just above 235% of GDP, with public borrowing continuing to rise.
"The IMF's latest tally puts global debt just above 235% of GDP, barely off the pandemic peaks, and largely driven by public borrowing that's drifting higher again."
Correct
The Federal Reserve pivoted from rate hikes to rate cuts between 2023 and 2025.
"Between 2023 and 2025, the Fed pivoted on its rate hiking cycle and began lowering rates."
Correct
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the end of quantitative tightening (balance sheet drawdown) may be approaching.
"Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said the end of quantitative tightening via balance sheet drawdown may be nearing."
Correct
Fiat currency is predicted to lose purchasing power over the long term.
"Over the long run, regardless of how it feels at any given moment, that thesis is undeniable. In the long run, fiat cash is trash."
Correct
Long-term structural incentives favor owning real assets due to factors like debt, financial repression, and geopolitical instability.
"Structurally, the incentives that support owning stuff don't disappear. Aging debt piles, periodic financial repression, and geopolitical noise are all slowmoving forces all the time."
Correct
Over time, investment preferences should shift towards real and productive assets such as businesses, scarce resources, fixed-issuance protocols, and land.
"So over time, your preferences should be towards real and productive assets. Businesses that earn, rocks that can't be printed, protocols with fixed issuance, and land that serves real demand."
Correct