ilmscore | Arthur Hayes on the Bitcoin Cycle, Dumping HYPE & Zcash Predictions

Arthur Hayes on the Bitcoin Cycle, Dumping HYPE & Zcash Predictions

Published: 2025-11-02
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 9
Correct: 2
Incorrect: 3
Pending: 4
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin is predicted to reach $999,999 by the end of 2027.
"Bitcoin would hit 999,999 by 2027."
BTC
Pending
The speaker believes the traditional 4-year cycle for Bitcoin is no longer applicable and will not follow its historical pattern.
"I said, "Okay, let me just do a little chart study, get my thoughts on paper, and sort of answer this question so I don't have to keep, you know, answering it every time I speak about stuff." And so I wrote this essay about the four-year cycle and my view that the four-year cycle does not apply in this particular circumstance."
BTC
Incorrect
The current Bitcoin cycle is predicted to extend into the 2027-2028 period due to global politicians printing money.
"And so that's why I believe that this particular cycle will extend. I think it's going to extend into the 202728 time period."
BTC
Pending
While Bitcoin and gold may eventually share similar inflation/debasement narratives, currently, sovereign nations are favoring gold over Bitcoin for their reserves.
"I think Bitcoin and gold will trade on the same sort of dollar to basement inflation story at some point, but right now sovereign countries are not buying Bitcoin. They're going to buy gold."
BTC
Correct
Zcash is predicted to achieve 10-20% of Bitcoin's value, translating to a price target of $10,000-$20,000.
"I think that 10 to 20% of the value of Bitcoin quite quickly is something that Zcash could achieve. There is your 10 to $20,000 price target on on Zcash."
ZEC
Incorrect
Ethereum's DApps are expected to outperform Solana's DApps due to a stronger narrative around the securitization of crypto sectors on Ethereum, which is unlikely to occur on Solana.
"if you look at the entire ecosystem of Salana Dats they have not performed as well as the Ethereum DATs and I think that is a lack of a broader narrative of why Salana over Ethereum the memecoin and post FTX like this is not just a SAM coin that made sense and obviously makes sense in hindsight but yeah it makes sense it fits I think this new ETH narrative on sort of the trification of certain sectors of crypto is going to happen on ETH is not going to happen on Salana."
SOL
Correct
The ETH/SOL ratio is expected to continue outperforming, implying ETH will likely rise faster than SOL.
"So ETH ETH soul ratio is going to continue outperforming I think so."
SOL
Incorrect
Perpetual DEXs are predicted to capture a significant portion of centralized exchange (CEX) trading volumes within the next 3 to 5 years.
"I think perp DEX's will massively take a big chunk out of SEX trading volumes in the 3 to 5 year period."
Perp DEX Market Share
Pending
DEX trading volumes are expected to surpass CEX volumes because cryptocurrency is fundamentally a retail-driven market.
"And in aggregate, I think DEX volumes will surpass sex volume because crypto is a retail driven phenomenon. It's not an institutional driven phenomenon even today."
Perp DEX Market Share vs. CEX
Pending