Arthur Hayes on the Bitcoin Cycle, Dumping HYPE & Zcash Predictions
Published: 2025-11-02
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-11-02
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 5
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin is predicted to reach $999,999 by the end of 2027.
"Bitcoin would hit 999,999 by 2027."
Pending
The speaker believes the traditional 4-year cycle for Bitcoin is no longer applicable and will not follow its historical pattern.
"I said, "Okay, let me just do a little chart study, get my thoughts on paper, and sort of answer this question so I don't have to keep, you know, answering it every time I speak about stuff." And so I wrote this essay about the four-year cycle and my view that the four-year cycle does not apply in this particular circumstance."
Incorrect
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are seen as a response to the increase in fiat currency creation since the 2008 financial crisis.
"I believe that Bitcoin specifically and obviously crypto more down the line is a reaction to the amount of fiat that has been created especially since the global financial crisis in 2008."
Incorrect
The current Bitcoin cycle is predicted to extend into the 2027-2028 period due to global politicians printing money.
"And so that's why I believe that this particular cycle will extend. I think it's going to extend into the 202728 time period."
Pending
The prediction of Bitcoin reaching $999,999 by 2027 is reiterated.
"And you said Bitcoin would hit 999,999 by 2027. So, are we still on track for that?"
Pending
While Bitcoin and gold may eventually share similar inflation/debasement narratives, currently, sovereign nations are favoring gold over Bitcoin for their reserves.
"I think Bitcoin and gold will trade on the same sort of dollar to basement inflation story at some point, but right now sovereign countries are not buying Bitcoin. They're going to buy gold."
Correct
Zcash is predicted to achieve 10-20% of Bitcoin's value, translating to a price target of $10,000-$20,000.
"I think that 10 to 20% of the value of Bitcoin quite quickly is something that Zcash could achieve. There is your 10 to $20,000 price target on on Zcash."
Incorrect
The speaker believes Zcash will be one of their most profitable trades of the current cycle.
"I think that this is probably going to be one of my better trades of of the cycle."
Incorrect
Ethereum's DApps are expected to outperform Solana's DApps due to a stronger narrative around the securitization of crypto sectors on Ethereum, which is unlikely to occur on Solana.
"if you look at the entire ecosystem of Salana Dats they have not performed as well as the Ethereum DATs and I think that is a lack of a broader narrative of why Salana over Ethereum the memecoin and post FTX like this is not just a SAM coin that made sense and obviously makes sense in hindsight but yeah it makes sense it fits I think this new ETH narrative on sort of the trification of certain sectors of crypto is going to happen on ETH is not going to happen on Salana."
Correct
The ETH/SOL ratio is expected to continue outperforming, implying ETH will likely rise faster than SOL.
"So ETH ETH soul ratio is going to continue outperforming I think so."
Incorrect
Altcoin seasons are driven by evolving narratives, moving from ICOs to DeFi summer, and each cycle has its unique characteristics.
"I mean every altcoin season is its own narrative, right? So we started out with ICOs. Just put something up on the internet on the website and take some money and launch a token and it trades, right? And that did well for for a period of time. Then we had DeFi summer, right, where you were farming, compounding a funny stuff that we were doing back in the day to basically like do all this non-economic stuff to generate these tokens that pumped and then dumped."
Pending
The current altcoin season's narrative involves projects with real customers, revenue generation, and token holders benefiting from protocol profits, with Hyperliquid cited as a prime example.
"And I think this cycle we had project we've we've matured project with you know real customers that spend real money and real money is a currency other than the intrinsic token of that protocol and the protocol takes some of that money that they make and they hand it back to us as token holders and the best example of that is hyperlquid."
Correct
Perpetual DEXs are predicted to capture a significant portion of centralized exchange (CEX) trading volumes within the next 3 to 5 years.
"I think perp DEX's will massively take a big chunk out of SEX trading volumes in the 3 to 5 year period."
Pending
DEX trading volumes are expected to surpass CEX volumes because cryptocurrency is fundamentally a retail-driven market.
"And in aggregate, I think DEX volumes will surpass sex volume because crypto is a retail driven phenomenon. It's not an institutional driven phenomenon even today."
Pending
The speaker suggests that DeFi looping strategies were often executed without proper consideration for collateral usage and margin requirements, leading to significant risks during market dislocations like the October 10th event.
"I think probably and this is you know I'm not again I'm not an expert on this this flow people did these looping strategies without really thinking about collateral usage and what their actual real return was if they actually kept the amount of margin to be safe and comfortable in this position without having an event like I think October 10th whatever date it was happen to them and take them out of their position"
Correct