The Death of Buy and Hold in Cryptocurrency Markets

"Uh so, one as most importantly as we've covered this is true. Good one guys. So one that is true is that we talked about is the government shutdown which could gonna potentially come this week. It's going through the house and the senate. Now why is this bullish? And I put out a tweet. There's a few reasons for this. uh one is uh the liquidity constraints will begin easing then so that's one that's the TGA right? So this is the Treasury general account that's been accumulating ever since the government's shutdown started it's um it's above the $850 billion target by about $150 billion and now that the government is open again it can start spending that's going back into the economy that's increased liquidity liquidity positive we also then have lawmakers finally are able to go back and actually work for the people and uh the they will then push hard on the clarity or market structure bill which is very important a very important bill to come forward for crypto and then someone else who's back at work another agencies is the SEC and CFTC and the SEC is really important because they have a lot of paperwork to do with the upcoming ETFs."

"All these spot altcoin ETFs which were kind of slated for October really weren't they? Um they they've obviously been affected by the government shutdown. We have had a couple approved but basically there is a flood of those applications which I think the Bloomberg ETF guys who are obviously the authority on this are you know very very confident that they will get approved so they're coming as soon as the SEC gets back get gets back into the office."

"And then speaking of the Fed, we've also got the QT coming in December, right? The end of QT. Yeah. Um now as we pointed out many times before this doesn't mean QE but it does mean uh that quantitative tightening will be coming to an end. That will have uh an effect on liquidity. We probably won't feel it immediately but we will uh that liquidity conditions will improve as a result of that."

"Don't forget guys that next year Trump or he'll announce it probably by the end of the year, but next year Trump is going to try and install an an Uber Dove, a Trump loyalist as quoted by Ed Yardini over here. So he will be an Uber Dove. Trump will want him to run the economy hot. Whatever you think about that, that's just the fact he's going to want it run the e economy hot into an election year."

"The Supreme Court are looking over, you know, are looking over these uh these Trump tariffs and there is a there is a pretty decent chance that they may actually strike them down. They may actually rule them illegal. Yeah, I've been watching the commentary coming from the court and many of the justices, including many of the conservative justices, have been skeptical of the arguments made, specifically the fact that the Trump administration does not have the authority to raise revenue. This whole idea and you know, which is kind of ironic because Trump has always been talking about how much money the the the tariffs have been raising and his his lawyer was arguing, no, it's not revenue generating. We're just trying to it's national security. We're not trying to raise revenue what you've been talking about the whole time. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, they've taken these tariffs uh I think are estimated to have taken in around $200 billion. And if the Supreme Court does strike these tariffs down, I mean, you'll obviously get appeals from the Trump administration, but it could mean um that that 200 mill billion dollars needs to be returned to US businesses stimulus. Yeah. Yeah. And so, that would be a kind of, you know, a form of stimulus."

"So, I mean, they've taken these tariffs uh I think are estimated to have taken in around $200 billion. And if the Supreme Court does strike these tariffs down, I mean, you'll obviously get appeals from the Trump administration, but it could mean um that that 200 mill billion dollars needs to be returned to US businesses stimulus. Yeah. Yeah. And so, that would be a kind of, you know, a form of stimulus. Um so, although that may take a while to play out with with uh with appeals and everything, that is potentially huge. I kind of think though I kind of think that's probably going to result in a lot more volatility. It will because uncertainty but he has he has made it the Trump's um administration has said that the Supreme Court should make this a priority. So apparently the uh judgment could come as soon as December."

"And you can basically see the projections of the price over there. Um between 90 to 160K in the next 5 to 6 months. So obviously it's quite wide ranging but it's not at least the probabilistically we're not going below 90K. The price can go anywhere between here and there."

"The cycle may be extending into 2026, if we can even call it a cycle anymore."

"So, at this point, we obviously know something is going on with ZEC. If people caught the stream 2 weeks ago, then they would have gotten in right around here around $300. Um, but now, you know, I hate to say I just don't like chasing green candles like this, even though at this point, you know, who knows? You know, I've seen talks about $10,000 Zcash, right? Um, but the good news is that since this has been such on such a powerful run that if it does have a pullback, then it's going to be just probably the best buying opportunity in the entire market. And so I don't know if it will come down here, but I would probably want to set my bids down here between, you know, $455 to $425."

"And staying with the privacy narrative, we also have Dash, which is a coin that I pointed out last time as well, but it hasn't yet come down into the zone where I wanted to buy, which was between uh $65 and $55 essentially. Uh this is where I would want to be looking for buying opportunities because it had a really really big runup and now I think it's going to come back down."

"And so for XMR Monero, I want to be getting it um at this really big support resistance area somewhere around between $368 and $346. You can see there was massive resistance, you know, boom, boom, boom, boom. You know, $346 just constantly getting rejected from and then it came back above there. So, if it does come back down to I would honestly I would say like 345 to 350 is such an ideal area for Monero because not only is it that big support resistance flip, but it is also this, you know, diagonal trend line as well."

"You can see ICP is a good example of that where it sort of just busted through this entire zone back here. And so if you see something like this, if it does come back down, I mean, technically that would be a good time to get in because I think I mentioned this last stream, but typically you don't want to be buying when things are going down like this. You know, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, right? Um, if you're trading, if you're investing, maybe you could get in, you know, at a discount, right, at a value. But if you're trading it, you typically want to wait until it creates a higher high and it sort of breaks that market structure."