Bitcoin Crashes Below $90K! Is the Bull Run Dead?

"JP Morgan has a 2026 price target near $170,000."

"Bernstein is forecasting $200,000"

"Standard Charted is calling for a staggering $300,000 in 2026."

"On the downside, the zone between 88,000 and 94,000 is now critical support. This area represents the cost basis for many institutional buyers. A decisive break below this could open the door to a deeper retest of the low80,000s or even the April lows around $76,000."

"To the upside, the bull's first job is to reclaim the $100,000 to $11,000 region. Getting back above that 50week EMA is the essential first step to restoring the bull market structure."

"Despite the price crash, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has continued to plummet, hitting a 7-year low of just 2.38 million Bitcoin. And this is not what happens at the start of a bare market. Bare markets begin when holders rush to deposit their coins onto exchanges so they can sell them. What we are seeing is the opposite, a relentless draining of available supply, setting the stage for a potential supply shock."

"On November 16th, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average, a classic bearish signal. But here's where context is king. This is the fourth death cross of this bull cycle. And in the previous three instances in September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025, the death cross actually marked the late stages of the correction right near the local bottom. Coincidence? I think not. And it seems the market has been using this widely feared signal as a liquidity grabbing event before reversing higher."

"On October 6th, Bitcoin was printing a fresh all-time high of over $126,000"

"At its low of $89,420, Bitcoin was down a staggering 29% from its peak."

"On November 16th, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average"

"The 50week exponential moving average or EMA. For nearly two years, this line, currently sitting around $11,000, has acted as the backbone of the bull market. Every dip towards it was bought up. And last week, we closed below it for the first time, a major structural breakdown."

"The tiebreaker, as always, is the macro environment. And here, too, the data argues against a prolonged bare market. First, let's look at the US dollar index or the Dixie. Historically, Bitcoin has had a strong inverse correlation with the dollar. A strong dollar sucks liquidity from global markets, hurting risk assets like crypto. A weak dollar does the opposite. And right now, the Dixie is significantly weak, trading well below its 365day moving average. And this is a tailwind for Bitcoin, not a headwind."

"Onchain data shows long-term holders have distributed around 400,000 Bitcoin over the past month. And that sounds like a lot, but it's crucial to put it into perspective. This level of distribution is nowhere near the scale we saw at previous cycle tops. In fact, over 70% of Bitcoin's total supply is still held by these long-term high conviction investors. So, we have a paradox. Retail sentiment is in the gutter, but the onchain fundamentals look like a coiled spring."

"Historically, cycle tops occur when the MVRV is above three, indicating widespread euphoria. Bare market bottoms happen when it drops below one, signaling mass capitulation. Right now, the MVRV is sitting at about 1.8, and this isn't a euphoric top or a capitulation bottom. Uh, this is a reading consistent with a midcycle accumulation phase."

"Historically, readings this low have preceded significant relief bounces."

"The battle for the next few months will be fought between the bearish technicals and the bullish onchain fundamentals with the Fed's December decision likely being the deciding factor."

"The market is currently pricing in a coin toss on whether they will cut rates again or hold them steady. A surprise cut could reignite the market, while a hawkish hold could lead to another leg down."

"Bitcoin's price is notoriously sensitive to global liquidity, which recently hit a record high. There is typically a lag of about 3 months between liquidity injections and their impact on asset prices. And this suggests that the fuel for the next rally is already in the tank. We're just waiting for the spark."

"And right now, the Dixie is significantly weak, trading well below its 365day moving average. And this is a tailwind for Bitcoin, not a headwind."

"We also have a Supreme Court decision on tariffs expected in December or January, which could inject serious volatility."

"We could see further selling pressure in late December due to tax loss harvesting, but this often sets the stage for a January effect where fresh capital is deployed at the start of the new year sparking a rebound."

"And while the Mount Gox repayment deadline has been pushed to October 2026, any large movements from their wallets still have the potential to spook the market."