Worst Bitcoin Period Since 2019 - What's Next?
Published: 2025-12-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-12-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 12
Prediction
Topic
Status
Speaker expresses low confidence in Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in December.
"I'm not confident anymore that we're going to see a new all-time high certainly in December."
Incorrect
Speaker predicts a bearish December for Bitcoin but sees potential for a different scenario in Q1 2026.
"2026 Q1 could be a different story, but I my my Spidey sense tells me it's it's going to be a bearish December."
Correct
Question posed about whether the current market conditions for Bitcoin constitute a bear market.
"Do you think we're in a bare market?"
Pending
Speaker is leaning towards the conclusion that it's increasingly difficult to argue that Bitcoin is still in a bull market.
"I'm kind of leaning more towards the fact that I think it's getting harder and harder to justify the fact that we're still in a bull market."
Correct
Speaker suggests that even if not currently in a bear market, the trend is moving towards one.
"if we're not in a bare market yet, we are sliding towards one."
Correct
Observation that the rate of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs has decreased.
"We've seen inflows to ETF slow."
Correct
Speaker believes that if Bitcoin cannot maintain strength despite positive news, further price declines are possible.
"if we can't maintain some sort of strength in the face of all this good news. I kind of feel like maybe we've got lower to go."
Correct
Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade on December 3rd is expected to significantly improve scalability, security, and user experience.
"the third of December, so Wednesday, um, Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade. Now, this upgrade will bring major improvements to Ethereum's scalability, security, and user experience."
Correct
The speaker doubts the Fusaka upgrade will significantly impact ETH's price, though they hope otherwise.
"what it probably won't do is do much for ETH's price, but we can only hope."
Pending
PCE numbers, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, are scheduled for December 5th and could provide insight into inflation trends before the FOMC meeting.
"on the 5th of 5th of December, we've got, as I mentioned, the PCE numbers, so the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Keep an eye on that because that could give some indication how inflation is shaping up prior to the FOMC meeting."
Pending
Speaker plans to sell on an upward price movement, ideally targeting between $100,000 and $107,000 for Bitcoin.
"I'm going to be wanting to get out on a bounce. What I'm hoping is that we get a bounce like really really high to like 107,000 or maybe I'm not going to say 113 cuz that's that's ridiculous but at least like 100 105 that would be awesome."
Incorrect
S&P 6900 has bounced from a major support level, resulting in a 75% increase from its lows.
"It came back down into the most massive support area that it's had... and it reversed from there and it went up 75% uh from the lows which is nothing to scoff at."
Unrated
S&P 6900 has broken its downward trend line, indicating that technical analysis remains effective in the current market.
"it broke through the downward trend line. So using technical analysis still it's still working in these markets."
Incorrect
Jerome Powell's speech at the Hoover Institution on December 2nd may provide insights into his monetary policy stance (dovish or hawkish).
"Powell is speaking at 8:00 p.m. It's a speech at the Hoover Institutions George P. Schultz memorial lecture and possibly get some indication of how he's feeling. Bullish, I mean doubbish hawkish or bullish bearish, which way you want to look at it."
Correct
Bullish investors hope Powell's speech signals a dovish stance, leading to interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and support for Bitcoin's price.
"and bulls of course want doubbish signals for a swift rate cuts to pressure the dollar and support Bitcoin."
Incorrect
Chainlink (LINK) ETFs are scheduled to launch the day after Powell's speech.
"and then tomorrow we've got the chain link or link ETFs are launching."
Incorrect
Major banks (HSBC, Barclays) and central banks (ECB, BIS) have reportedly tested Quant Network's technology.
"there seems to have been lots of testing of quant networks over ledger um by big banks the likes of HSBC Barclays but also um central banks like the ECB and even the bank for international settlements the bank for central banks."
Pending
Casper Network is experiencing dramatically increased transaction throughput, decreased selling pressure, strong long-term holder conviction, and thin exchange liquidity, contributing to its price increase.
"transaction throughput, which has increased dramatically. uh suggesting actual usage is also minor selling has dropped a lot and long-term holders are diamond handing and sellside liquidity on exchanges is very thin."
Pending
NYX Finance is preparing for a V2 launch, and has seen increases in trading volumes and fee revenue.
"there is an imminent uh V2 launch coming for my Finance. trading uh trading volumes, fee revenue both up."
Pending
Maker DAO (MKR) has rebranded to SKY, with buybacks occurring and staking rewards now denominated in SKY instead of USDS.
"Sky. Uh so this is the rebranded maker dial or MKR. Um now this is on top of buybacks which have been happening plus a staking rewards are now being denominated in sky rather than USDS."
Incorrect
Analysis suggests Bitcoin may have passed its fourth cycle high, comparing the duration between the third cycle low/high (157 days) and the fourth cycle low/high (1057 days).
"the fourth cycle high on a timebased perspective. So basically if you look at the third uh cycle third cycle low uh to the third cycle high that was 1,57 days. Okay. And if you take the fourth cycle low uh to the fourth cycle high presumably at 126,000 that was 1,057 days."
Incorrect
Multiple factors, including time-based cycles, diagonal resistance, and a bearish market structure break on the weekly chart, lead the speaker to believe Bitcoin is in a bear market.
"because we have the timebased, you know, factor in here for Bitcoin and you have obviously the gigantic diagonal resistance trend line, right? And you have the bearish market structure break on the weekly time frame. These are just like a whole bunch of things that have lined up to sort of make me think like not think but just like from my analysis yeah we're in a bare market at this point at least for Bitcoin."
Incorrect
Dovish signals from the Fed are expected to weaken the US dollar, which in turn should support Bitcoin's price.
"bulls of course want doubbish signals for a swift rate cuts to pressure the dollar and support Bitcoin."
Pending
Criticism of new Layer 1 launches focuses on insider allocations, high FDV/low float structures, predatory practices, and how hyped projects have negatively impacted retail investors.
"The question of the insiders, the KO rounds, the um, the high FTV, lowflat meta um and the predatory nature of a lot of these launches and some of the launches that have come to market that have been as hyped and completely rinsed retail."
Correct
Analogy suggesting that while many Layer 1s (railways) are being built, there is a lack of compelling applications or use cases (trains) to utilize them.
"we need but we need trains to run on them."
Pending
There is an abundance of Layer 1 solutions, and established networks like Ethereum and Solana are demonstrating their ability to evolve and upgrade their infrastructure.
"it's like we've got you know we we've got an embarrassment of riches when it comes to L1's and let's face it like the you know the older legacy L1's if you likes the like the um the likes of Ethereum and Salana, you know, both of those teams are showing that you can upgrade, you know, you can change that infrastructure as you go along."
Correct
There is a concern that Japanese bond yields will increase due to the Bank of Japan considering another interest rate hike.
"the concern is um that the yield on Japanese bonds is going to rise because the BOJ, the Bank of Japan is eyeing another rate hike."
Correct
Even a slight increase in Japanese interest rates is predicted to cause significant disruption, and this appears to be occurring again.
"even a small nudge in uh you nudge upwards in uh Japanese interest rates is going to cause carnage and this appears to be what's happening again."
Correct
Market pricing indicates a 76% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19th, preceded by a spike in 2-year Japanese government bond yields, which are indicative of short-term rates targeted by the BOJ.
"the expectations for a December 19th that's when the BOJ decides the expectations in terms of bond market pricing and futures is there's a 76% chance of an increase in rates. So prior to that, we had a spike in the 2-year uh Japanese government bond yields and these are a good proxy for the short end rates which the BOJ usually targets."
Correct
A strengthening Yen increases the cost of borrowing for those who borrowed in Yen, impacting carry trades.
"So if you're borrowing, you're borrowing in yen and if yen strengthens, the cost of your borrowing goes up."
Correct
The current trend shows global capital shifting away from growth assets towards safer havens as funding conditions tighten.
"the overall takeaway is that global money is rotating from growth assets into fund as funding tightens."
Correct
Michael Saylor's mention of 'green dots' on his Bitcoin tracker potentially signals a shift from his historical 'orange dot' indicator for Bitcoin purchases.
"What if we start adding green dots? Now this is the sailor tracker. And the sailor tracker historically has always every time he was telegraphing a Bitcoin buy or he made a Bitcoin buy, there would be an orange dot at the price of that buy."
Pending
A potential interpretation of Saylor's 'green dots' is that they represent buybacks of MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares.
"The most plausible one could be he that he could be doing buybacks, NSDR buybacks."
Pending
The speaker anticipates guaranteed Fed rate cuts within two weeks and expects a new, highly dovish Fed chair in the following year who will aim to stimulate the economy.
"Fed rate cuts coming up in two weeks almost guaranteed. You've got a new Fed chair coming in next year who's going to be uber doubbish. They're going to run it hot."
Incorrect
November was the worst month for Bitcoin since 2019, but the speaker optimistically suggests December will be better.
"The last day of November, worst November for Bitcoin since 2019. Look on the bright side. December can only be better."
Incorrect
The speaker had a premonition of further negative price action after November's poor performance, referencing a similar situation in October.
"Unless, unless. And that's the reason for the three dots. I knew that something was cooking. Something was cooking because this happened exactly in October. Worst month ever. Worst month so far."
Correct
If the total market cap for Bitcoin rises above the November 2021 highs, the speaker would target at least $3.29 trillion and consider taking profits.
"I would really really like it to come back above there. That would make me feel so much better. And if it does, then I would target, you know, at least 3.29 trillion for the total market cap. And that's probably where I'd be wanting to take uh some of my profits or a lot of my profits."
Incorrect
The Total 2 market cap (excluding Bitcoin) is currently at a significant horizontal support level that previously acted as resistance in March, April, May of 2024 and February, May of 2025.
"the total 2 uh which is everything excluding Bitcoin is at a pretty good horizontal support resistance area. So you can see big resistance uh back in March, April of uh 2024 and then again in May of 2024 huge resistances and then finally it turned into support in uh February 2025 back into resistance in May 2025 and now back into support or at least it's holding as support for total 2."
Correct
The Total 3 market cap is currently at a critical diagonal support level, which has historically led to rallies when tested in August, September, and November 2024, and April 2025.
"total three. And total three another uh diagonal support that it's we're literally sitting on right now. Uh which if we break this it's going to really suck. I'm not going to lie. Uh if we break this it's ouch, you know. But uh we we tapped it in August 2024, September 2024, November 2024. Um all and we rallied from it every single time. Same thing with uh April 2025. And so we're here and we're at the support."
Pending
The speaker intends to exit their Bitcoin positions on an upward bounce, ideally targeting between $100,000 and $107,000.
"I'm probably going to be wanting to get out on a bounce. What I'm hoping is that we get a bounce like really really high to like 107,000 or maybe I'm not going to say 113 cuz that's that's ridiculous but at least like 100 105 that would be awesome."
Incorrect
A theory suggests Michael Saylor's 'green dots' may indicate a $1.44 billion USD reserve for dividend payments.
"Green dots from Sailor means he has a 1.44 billion USD reserve for paying dividends. Could that signify dividend payments?"
Pending