Jim Bianco: Bitcoin Predictions, Strategy Selling & Institutional Threat

"I think we got to go below 74K first, maybe down, you know, under 70."

"And I think that maybe by the end, one year from today, December of 26, we're on our way back up. But it's going to be very, very painful. Uh, first be especially when we get under 74."

"If we did a little bit, it'll go much higher. If we did a lot, it might only be recovering to the mid 80s by then."

"If that happens, we get a 7584 vote. Then all bets are off. Whatever Paul says at the next meeting doesn't matter. He's only one of 12 votes."

"my fear is they're going to create inflation and the result is going to be a plunge in risk markets."

"We call it affordability. And now Trump's approval rating is declining because of the inflation problem."

"4% 5% growth out of China is one of the worst growth levels they've seen in 50 years."

"their industrial production numbers are falling off of a cliff because their trade is being greatly impacted by the United States right now."

"And they've also got gigantic internal problem with real estate and real estate bad loans."

"I think they'll we'll try to not have it, but ultimately I think that we are going to see more internal strife."

"China has agreed with the United States to stop the fentanyl flow. They've agreed it better stop otherwise, you know, it's going to anger Trump and and he's going to ratchet up the uh pressure on them."

"So there is a lot of strife in China right now. We just don't report on it in the West because we'd rather talk about how Trump is mean and or terrible."

"It's being basically driven by the People's Bank of China. It's being driven by some of the other Asian central banks and it's being driven by private sector buyers in Asia."

"Is that going to metastasize into the Japan, the United States, Western Europe? Maybe. Maybe it does. And if so, I think that there could be more legs to the precious metals move again because it's a fairly small market at this point."

"Is it de it's de-dollarization for them, but is it de-dollarization for the rest of the world? That is still an open question whether or not we're going to see de-dollarization for the rest of the world."

"The dollar is not going away. It is the default. We're lucky that it is the default because we're mismanaging the hell out of it. But it isn't going to go away."

"I think it's kind of like it's this um ceremony that kind of like Christmas that crypto bros have around the harvin but it's it's also coincided with liquidity cycles in general the business cycle and I think it's just been a coincidence that has happened around the harvin itself"

"and also there's the self-reinforcing mechanism where people will buy bitcoin because they think the harvin has an impact but if you look at it from the perspective of inflation rates it's you know it's minuscule now"

"the incremental change in the inflation rate is so small, it doesn't really mean anything."

"I think we got to go below 74K first, maybe down, you know, under 70. And I think that maybe by the end, one year from today, December of 26, we're on our way back up. But it's going to be very, very painful."

"If the Fed caves and there's a 102 111 vote or something like that at next week's meeting, they all give speeches. We shouldn't cut rates, we shouldn't cut rates, and then because the chairman wants to cut rates, they go into the meeting and vote to cut rates. If they do that, then Hassid's coming in and he's going to be lo pushing on Trump's need view that the funds rate by the end of next year should be 1%."

"The problem with fiscal dominance is you've pulled the pin on a grenade and now we're just arguing about when it's going to blow up. It will blow up, you know, and so that is why if you want to go down that fiscal dominance road, this is the last trade. You better wind up rich and out of the market because it will end badly."

"Their economic growth is terrible right now. Keep in mind that we got to put the Chinese economy into perspective. They're growing at four or five percent now in Western Europe or in the United States. Boy, that sounds like a lot of growth. That's one of the lowest growth rates in other than COVID. Take CO out of the equation because that was one special circumstance. 4% 5% growth out of China is one of the worst growth levels they've seen in 50 years."

"And they've also got gigantic internal problem with real estate and real estate bad loans. You know what they did as we all aware of, you know, we've all seen the pictures of those ghost cities. Well, what's happened is China did something unusual, right? They built cities for million people that were uninhabited. They sold all those condos and all that property to tens of millions of Chinese people as part of their savings and investments. And no one ever populated those cities. And all of that prop all that real estate is falling in value."

"I think they'll we'll try to not have it, but ultimately I think that we are going to see more internal strife."

"And everybody really pushed back on this whole idea of zero covid being welded into their apartment and the government like that folded. Zero co is over effective immediately showing their weakness that when the people in China push back they have no ability to stop them and they're angry and they got the push back from co. So there is a lot of strife in China right now. We just don't report on it in the West because we'd rather talk about how Trump is mean and or terrible."

"I actually did interview to be a Fed governor back in May of 2019. That was when um I went to the White House. I spoke I met with uh National Economic Council Chairman Larry Cuddlo at the time and the assistant chairman Andrew Olstead, you know, in the third floor of the West Wing to talk about being a potential Fed governor. They were flirting with the idea of putting a market person on."

"The People's Bank of China is a big buyer and they are trying to protect themselves from tariffs and um the friction that they're having with the Trump administration, but also the Chinese population is gigantic buyers of gold right now. Might be bigger buyers than the central bank in and it of itself."

"The dollar is not going away. It is the default. We're lucky that it is the default because we're mismanaging the hell out of it. But it isn't going to go away. The Chinese are a separate story."

"The having didn't work or do you disagree? The last having really didn't work as far as being uh are if we have too much now that the incremental is just too small for it to matter. I think it's kind of like it's this um ceremony that kind of like Christmas that crypto bros have around the harvin but it's also coincided with liquidity cycles in general the business cycle and I think it's just been a coincidence that has happened around the harvin itself and also there's the self-reinforcing mechanism where people will buy bitcoin because they think the harvin has an impact but if you look at it from the perspective of inflation rates it's you know it's minuscule now"