Bitcoin Holders Panic Sell: Is The Bottom In For BTC?

"ETFs alone have absorbed around 1.5 million BTC since early 2024, while centralized exchange balances have declined over that time horizon."

"And as mentioned earlier, we now have Vanguard entering the market to offer its 50 million plus clients greater access to crypto. So it's reasonable to expect this structural shift in holders to continue in the coming years, although there will be a natural eb and flow of course."

"BTC holders withdrew more than 23,000 BTC from exchanges over a 7-day period running into the beginning of December. That's roughly $2.15 billion worth. And it pushed exchange reserves to their lowest levels since January of 2021."

"As the market flushed into the 80K to 90K range, the score rose higher and higher towards that top measure of one, signaling that big players saw that zone as value and stepped in as buyers."

"According to data from Santiment, entities holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have net accumulated over 47,500 BTC so far in December after dumping around 113,000 BTC from October 12th through November 30th."

"This metric [SOPR of short-term holders] dropped to about 0.93 while BTC dropped below 80K. Any reading below one typically signals capitulation from newer entrance. For a reading of 0.93, that's short-term holders on average selling roughly 7% below what they paid."

"BTC supply has been shifting away from retail trading venues and into more institution style pools. According to estimates from frosta using glass node data, there are about 6.7 million BTC held across ETFs, corporate balance sheets, and other centralized and decentralized treasuries."

"If we use Glass Node's supply cost basis model, a key recovery zone is in the 96K to 106K band. Think of it as the range where the bigger, heavier buyers tend to have their average entries. Below 96K, more than 25% of the supply is underwater, which is why rebounds can seem fragile."

"Cryptoquant data shows Binance's Bitcoin tostable coin reserve ratio dropping to its lowest level since 2018. That basically signals that relative to BTC, there's a lot of stable coin liquidity parked and ready to move if buyers wake up."

"Coin Market Cap's fear and greed index sits at 24 out of 100 at the time of shooting. Still in fear territory, even after the bounce, and around the time of the late November liquidation cascade, it printed the yearly low with an extreme fear level of 10."

"Glass Node recently framed the current market setup with a sober note, saying it echoes early 2022 style stress. There's rising supply sitting in a loss. Spot demand looks tepid and positioning remains cautious."