This Is A Bear Market! Why We Could Be Heading Lower | Markus Thielen

"And I think the other aspect really is that the employment rate historically once we have started to ramp up in the unemployment rate that it actually has really you know spiked a little bit out of control until there was a recession and I think if you just look at a chart from you know 20 30 years history I think it indicates we are sort of like at this you know bottoming period right now and as long as we are above the one-year moving average I think it's sort of like quite a negative sign and yes you know there will be more stimulus if goes a little bit out of control but it will also come with pain in terms of risk assets first."

"I think crypton native liquidity you know is a lot more relevant for the crypto market. I think the other aspect is really sort of like hypothetical you know if I mean you know people like to look at for example like M2 before but you know they they confused you know money supply you know with with real liquidity hitting hitting the the crypto market and I think you know when we look at you know onchain data how much money really goes into Bitcoin I think that's a lot more relevant and I think that's kind of like that's kind of the data point we actually feel most comfortable with because I think the the other aspect is sort of Like I think it's almost like um you know a misconception right I mean you mentioned before that also you know the $40 billion that the Fed is going to start buying now in short-term bills but you know to be really QE it needs to be be longer term treasuries right it needs to be 10 years plus to keep really the the longer bond yields anchored because a lot of let's say corporates you know if they make interest rate decisions it's really on the longer terms right it's not really on the short-term borrowing that really that really matters because the short term is already very low right the the twoear is at 3.6. So if the Fed buys more of those or even shorter, it's not going to really I think move the liquidity needle. It's really more more the longer term things."

"2026, another thing obviously in 2026, apart from all the other factors you mentioned is is it's an election year. And in a recent CoinDesk interview, you warned that um in previous cycles of Bitcoin or previous election years, Bitcoin experienced a 60% draw down. We could potentially see this next year in the midterm election cycle."

"And I think there's a very high chance that the Democrats are going to win and then a lot of you know the Trump's expansionary policies might not be pushed through and I think that's kind of the argument why sort of the stock market might be running out of you know steam here as well and sort of like goes sideways. There might be some sector rotation and I do fear there might be this void then for Bitcoin as well that you know Trump was of course the Bitcoin president but what if he cannot do his policies anymore maybe there will be some nothing is going to happen really and I think that's kind of like the the risk where that sort of like we are so like foreseeing because when you look at historically during those years Bitcoin actually had a sharp correction can it go down really 60% I think you know I would say uh probably like 70,000 should be like like a lower level in the sense because there's some super technical support there and so we we we haven't been you know we were already like at 80,000 so we weren't really that far away but it's very difficult to identify what's really going to push Bitcoin up from here our scenario is more that we that we just trade around this sort of 80,000 to 100,000 you know for for a while but we fail to really break out and I think there is a drift lower because of that"

"And then when this happens, I think then we have a new narrative. Then we have a new bull market. A new bull market will come for sure. The question really is, you know, when and you know, I don't think we can rely too much on macro on that side. Got it. So just in terms of next year, you think that um altcoins are going to continue underperforming Bitcoin in terms of Bitcoin dominance continue to go up? Yeah, I think so. I think I don't think there's a real com I don't think there's a real compelling story for altcoins. I think selectively you know for example like I think BM B is probably one of my my my favorites simply because you can generate some some higher yield you can participate on the launchpads you can participate on some of the the you know token launches there and historically this year you would have made another 10% in terms of yield and I think it grows with the ecosystem I think we have shown in some of our analysis that you know the BMP actually grows with the number of of you know wallets in the ecosystem but I think a lot of the the the the other projects, you know, a lot of the protocols they really like last cycle, they sort of have become like, you know, dead ends."