ilmscore | Mike Novogratz on BTC's Slide, Altcoins & Big 2026 Predictions

Predictions from this Video

Total: 18
Correct: 2
Incorrect: 5
Pending: 11
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Federal Reserve is predicted to adopt a dovish stance and cut interest rates to 2.5%.
"We're going to get a doubish Fed share. They're going to cut rates down to 2.5%."
US Federal Reserve
Incorrect
Artificial Intelligence is predicted to be the greatest bubble in history.
"AI is a bubble and it and my guess is it's going to become the greatest bubble of all time."
AI Bubble
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to move back above $100,000 within 6 weeks to 6 months, driven by the Federal Reserve cutting rates to 2.5%.
"I don't know if we're going to go back through 100 in the next 6 weeks or 6 months. My view is we do because we're going to get a doubish Fed share. They're going to cut rates down to 2 and a half%."
Bitcoin Price Trajectory
Incorrect
The integration of real-world assets onto blockchains, including stocks and neo-banking infrastructure, is predicted to be a significant development over the next 18 months to three years.
"The future of blockchains and digital assets, real world assets on blockchains, is as bullish as it's ever been. That doesn't mean the price of you name the token is going to go up in the next 6 months, right? being bullish on building out that infrastructure of neo banks and distributing Galaxy stock or or Tesla stock or Google stock into places all around the world. That's going to happen. That's an 18month to threeyear buildout process."
Real World Assets on Blockchains
Pending
Long-term Bitcoin holders are unlikely to sell if the price remains above $70,000, and particularly if it stays in the mid to low $80,000 range.
"As long as crypto doesn't fall below 70, like if Bitcoin got below 70, maybe people their pants and get nervous that oh my god, I got it. But I I don't think you see selling in the mid to low 80s from long-term holders."
Long-Term Holder Behavior
Incorrect
The practice of selling covered calls on crypto holdings by OGs is expected to continue as a way to generate income, which may put downward pressure on the market.
"OG's selling covered calls. Yeah, that's going to continue to happen. It's just going to continue to happen. There's, you know, listen, balls down a lot. you don't get paid nearly what you used to get paid for it, but there is a a mindset that that's a nice way to make income, spend on my car or or my boat or whatever I need to spend it on. And so that's become almost a permanent feature I would say. And that'll weigh on the market sub."
Covered Calls on Crypto
Correct
Large institutions are predicted to wait for Bitcoin to return above $100,000 before allocating capital, and a compelling narrative will be necessary to drive sales.
"in the short run I think if I was a big institution I'm waiting for it to get back above 100 then buying at 87 unless it really goes lower and so it's time but you also Like crypto is always sold. To sell something, I need a story."
Institutional Crypto Allocation
Incorrect
US national debt is projected to increase from $38 trillion to $40 trillion.
"We're at 38 trillion dollars in debt. We're going to be at $40 trillion in debt."
US Government Debt and Deficit
Pending
Banks are projected to experience increased liquidity after the new year, leading to a hyper-liquid market.
"SLR which is giving banks a lot more liquidity and so you're already jamming liquidity I think it'll start after the new year right because right now there's year end liquidity that's liquidity gets tight as people want to clean up their balance sheets just for the the snapshot and so I I do think we're going to be in a hyperlquid space"
Bank Liquidity
Incorrect
Silver and gold are predicted to outperform Bitcoin in the next two weeks, but the dynamic is expected to change next year.
"Right now, silver's the silver is the the the horse in the front of the race. Normally, when you get close to the end of the year, the horse in the front of the race wins. You got to bet silver and gold outperform Bitcoin in the next two weeks. But next year, you get a new race."
Precious Metals and Bitcoin Performance
Pending
The adoption and positive impact of digital assets are predicted to progress at a slower pace under a Democratic administration compared to a Republican one.
"The acceleration of digital assets as a as a force for good, I think would have been much slower under a democratic regime."
Digital Asset Acceleration
Pending
Prediction markets are currently a niche but are expected to become integrated into all aspects of the financial system, driven by a CFTC ruling.
"prediction markets are a hype, but pretty soon you're going to be built into everything. And that's all because of the CFTC ruling, right?"
Prediction Markets
Pending
The Trump administration is expected to significantly impact the crypto business, with this influence starting immediately and intensifying over the next three years.
"I think the Trump impact on our business or the Trump administration impact on our business probably starts now and really ramps for three years."
Trump Administration Impact on Crypto
Pending
Hyperlid is considered an ideal token model, but under a potential future administration, it might be classified as a security token.
"Again, why I keep going back to Hyperlquid, I think, as the as the ideal token, but hyperlid under the Genz administration would be a security token, right?"
Hyperlid as an Ideal Token
Pending
New legislation is crucial for enabling tokens that provide economic value to users, and without this, the crypto industry is predicted to falter.
"getting these rules set in this new piece of legislation that allows people to create tokens that give some economic value to the user of the token as opposed to just, hey, it's another version of Bitcoin. will be the radical thing that happens and if it doesn't happen our industry is going to suck."
Token Issuance and Economic Value
Pending
Large token unlocks, without corresponding new buyers, are predicted to lead to price decreases.
"And you know why is gold up? Because central banks and tether have been buying it. They've been dominating the flows, right? And so when you have these giant unlocks coming, that's sellers with no new buyers. The price is going to go down."
Unlocks and Sell Pressure
Pending
Bank of New York Mellon is predicted to become the largest custodian for cryptocurrencies.
"I think Bank of New York will probably be the largest custodian in crypto"
BNY Mellon as Crypto Custodian
Pending
The concept of crypto is predicted to have a greater impact and adoption in the rest of the world compared to developed nations.
"I think it's a bigger idea for rest of world than it is for the developed world."
Crypto Adoption in Developing Countries
Correct