Mike Novogratz on BTC's Slide, Altcoins & Big 2026 Predictions
Published: 2025-12-17
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-12-17
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Federal Reserve is predicted to adopt a dovish stance and cut interest rates to 2.5%.
"We're going to get a doubish Fed share. They're going to cut rates down to 2.5%."
Incorrect
Artificial Intelligence is predicted to be the greatest bubble in history.
"AI is a bubble and it and my guess is it's going to become the greatest bubble of all time."
Pending
Galaxy Digital's research head revised down the year-end Bitcoin price target to $120,000.
"Your head of research recently came out and he revised down the price target from Galaxy Digital for the end of the year to 120K by the end of the year."
Incorrect
Bitcoin is predicted to move back above $100,000 within 6 weeks to 6 months, driven by the Federal Reserve cutting rates to 2.5%.
"I don't know if we're going to go back through 100 in the next 6 weeks or 6 months. My view is we do because we're going to get a doubish Fed share. They're going to cut rates down to 2 and a half%."
Incorrect
The integration of real-world assets onto blockchains, including stocks and neo-banking infrastructure, is predicted to be a significant development over the next 18 months to three years.
"The future of blockchains and digital assets, real world assets on blockchains, is as bullish as it's ever been. That doesn't mean the price of you name the token is going to go up in the next 6 months, right? being bullish on building out that infrastructure of neo banks and distributing Galaxy stock or or Tesla stock or Google stock into places all around the world. That's going to happen. That's an 18month to threeyear buildout process."
Pending
Institutional trading volumes and market liquidity are projected to be down by approximately 30%, and rebuilding this liquidity will take time.
"institutional volumes are down 30 odd percent. That means liquidity is down 30%. And every time we've done that in the past, it just takes a while to rebuild."
Pending
Long-term Bitcoin holders are unlikely to sell if the price remains above $70,000, and particularly if it stays in the mid to low $80,000 range.
"As long as crypto doesn't fall below 70, like if Bitcoin got below 70, maybe people their pants and get nervous that oh my god, I got it. But I I don't think you see selling in the mid to low 80s from long-term holders."
Incorrect
The practice of selling covered calls on crypto holdings by OGs is expected to continue as a way to generate income, which may put downward pressure on the market.
"OG's selling covered calls. Yeah, that's going to continue to happen. It's just going to continue to happen. There's, you know, listen, balls down a lot. you don't get paid nearly what you used to get paid for it, but there is a a mindset that that's a nice way to make income, spend on my car or or my boat or whatever I need to spend it on. And so that's become almost a permanent feature I would say. And that'll weigh on the market sub."
Correct
Large institutions are predicted to wait for Bitcoin to return above $100,000 before allocating capital, and a compelling narrative will be necessary to drive sales.
"in the short run I think if I was a big institution I'm waiting for it to get back above 100 then buying at 87 unless it really goes lower and so it's time but you also Like crypto is always sold. To sell something, I need a story."
Incorrect
US national debt is projected to increase from $38 trillion to $40 trillion.
"We're at 38 trillion dollars in debt. We're going to be at $40 trillion in debt."
Pending
Bitcoin is positioned as the ultimate store of value, especially as the US dollar continues to be debased.
"As a store of wealth, long-term store of wealth, and as a dollar debate, as a dollar gets continually debased, I think there's nothing really that compete with Bitcoin."
Pending
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates due to concerns about job losses caused by AI, with a target of 2.5%.
"I think they're going to cut rates. I think jobs are a bigger worry in the administration than the market has them. Right? This this idea that AI is hitting jobs I think is real. And so watch non-farm tomorrow. But as long as you have job weakness, you're going to have a very doubbish Fed. It doesn't matter what Kevin. I know the market perceives Kevin Morsh is going to be more hawkish. He's not. He wants rates down at two and a half%."
Incorrect
The impact of AI on job displacement is considered a significant and real concern.
"AI is hitting jobs I think is real."
Correct
Banks are projected to experience increased liquidity after the new year, leading to a hyper-liquid market.
"SLR which is giving banks a lot more liquidity and so you're already jamming liquidity I think it'll start after the new year right because right now there's year end liquidity that's liquidity gets tight as people want to clean up their balance sheets just for the the snapshot and so I I do think we're going to be in a hyperlquid space"
Incorrect
Silver and gold are predicted to outperform Bitcoin in the next two weeks, but the dynamic is expected to change next year.
"Right now, silver's the silver is the the the horse in the front of the race. Normally, when you get close to the end of the year, the horse in the front of the race wins. You got to bet silver and gold outperform Bitcoin in the next two weeks. But next year, you get a new race."
Pending
AI is predicted to become the greatest bubble in history.
"AI is a bubble and and my guess is it's going to become the greatest bubble of all time."
Pending
Republicans are predicted to face significant challenges in the upcoming midterm elections unless circumstances change dramatically.
"unless something dramatically changes, the Republicans are in big trouble in the midterms."
Incorrect
Donald Trump is expected to implement policies aimed at stimulating the economy to avoid midterm election losses.
"He's going to do everything he can to juice that economy so he doesn't lose these midterms."
Correct
Crypto is perceived to have had a significant influence on the election results, contributing to the success of Donald Trump and his allies.
"crypto had a big impact on the election and getting Trump and everyone elected."
Pending
The adoption and positive impact of digital assets are predicted to progress at a slower pace under a Democratic administration compared to a Republican one.
"The acceleration of digital assets as a as a force for good, I think would have been much slower under a democratic regime."
Pending
Prediction markets are currently a niche but are expected to become integrated into all aspects of the financial system, driven by a CFTC ruling.
"prediction markets are a hype, but pretty soon you're going to be built into everything. And that's all because of the CFTC ruling, right?"
Pending
The Trump administration is expected to significantly impact the crypto business, with this influence starting immediately and intensifying over the next three years.
"I think the Trump impact on our business or the Trump administration impact on our business probably starts now and really ramps for three years."
Pending
Altcoins have historically underperformed because they were intentionally designed to do so.
"altcoins have sucked because they were designed to suck."
Pending
Fear of altcoins being classified as securities led to their design as community tokens without inherent economic utility for token holders.
"People were so scared of giving any utility or any economic interest being deemed a security token that all the altcoins did generally speaking were represent you know it was like hey you get to be part of my energy they were community tokens so they were all a version of bitcoin with a very different stories"
Correct
Hyperlid is considered an ideal token model, but under a potential future administration, it might be classified as a security token.
"Again, why I keep going back to Hyperlquid, I think, as the as the ideal token, but hyperlid under the Genz administration would be a security token, right?"
Pending
New legislation is crucial for enabling tokens that provide economic value to users, and without this, the crypto industry is predicted to falter.
"getting these rules set in this new piece of legislation that allows people to create tokens that give some economic value to the user of the token as opposed to just, hey, it's another version of Bitcoin. will be the radical thing that happens and if it doesn't happen our industry is going to suck."
Pending
The most critical factor in trading any asset, according to a 40-year veteran, is understanding the buying and selling flows.
"no matter what you're trading, here's my I've been doing this for 40 years. Kernel of truth. What what you're trading, it's always who's buying, who's selling, what's what's the what are the flows?"
Pending
Large token unlocks, without corresponding new buyers, are predicted to lead to price decreases.
"And you know why is gold up? Because central banks and tether have been buying it. They've been dominating the flows, right? And so when you have these giant unlocks coming, that's sellers with no new buyers. The price is going to go down."
Pending
The oldest blockchains, with the exception of Hyperlid, maintain high market caps due to good distribution, which prevents constant sell pressure.
"the highest market cap blockchains are the oldest other than Hyperl quite frankly is the only one that's kind of broken into the top 20 is because they got distributed well, right? So there wasn't this constant sell pressure."
Pending
Galaxy Digital holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperlid as its primary crypto assets.
"we keep Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana, and Hyperlid as kind of our four horsemen."
Correct
Clarity is needed regarding the trading regulations for tokenized equities, with Galaxy Digital seeking a sandbox exemption to trade its tokenized stock on AMMs.
"no one knows where they're allowed to trade yet, right? They're just we're we're working with the SEC right now on getting a what those sandbox exemption to to have our Galaxy digitalized token, which we tokenize on solid superstate to actually be able to trade on AMMs."
Pending
A significant debate surrounding the market structure bill in Washington D.C. concerns whether tokenized assets should be permitted to trade on DeFi platforms.
"the big debate on this market structure bill in DC is around DeFi. Should tokenized assets be able to trade on DeFi?"
Correct
Bank of New York Mellon is predicted to become the largest custodian for cryptocurrencies.
"I think Bank of New York will probably be the largest custodian in crypto"
Pending
The most crucial investment principle is survival, meaning not to quit and to avoid catastrophic losses.
"The number one rule of investing is don't die. And it sounds like a stupid rule, but it's, you know, when you're down on don't die, don't quit."
Pending
When an asset experiences a significant price increase ('moonshot'), it is advisable to take profits gradually by scaling out of the position.
"When something's on a moonshot, take some profits. Take a little bit more. Don't take 70%, 15% off, 15, like scale out."
Pending
Significant profits were made from an investment in SpaceX made in 2013.
"I made a fortune on SpaceX. I invested in SpaceX in 2013."
Correct
Bitcoin is identified as the first digital asset that cannot be counterfeited or copied, establishing it as digital private property.
"Bitcoin was the first digital asset you couldn't counterfeit. You couldn't control go control copy paste and that made it private property."
Correct
The concept of crypto is predicted to have a greater impact and adoption in the rest of the world compared to developed nations.
"I think it's a bigger idea for rest of world than it is for the developed world."
Correct
Significant crypto adoption is occurring in Africa and Asia among individuals who lack access to traditional banking, using Bitcoin or Tether for transactions like financing imports.
"the people who actually the real adoption that matters is those in the likes of Africa and Asia who need to to finance their need to finance like imports and they use Bitcoin or Tether or they say they haven't they haven't had access to a bank account and they're able to to do that"
Correct