Mike Novogratz on BTC's Slide, Altcoins & Big 2026 Predictions

"We're going to go back through 100 in the next 6 weeks or 6 months because we're going to get a doubish Fed share. They're going to cut rates down to 2.5%."

"I don't think you see selling in the mid to low 80s from long-term holders. Speaking about these long-term holders, another way in which they have potentially been generating yield and cash from their holdings, and I don't know if you've also seen this from your end at Galaxy on the desks there, but it's been this theory has been propagated by um the guys over at Bitwise, I think was Matt Hogan and Jeff Park more recently, is OG's basically selling covered calls. Yeah, that's going to continue to happen."

"You got to bet silver and gold outperform Bitcoin in the next two weeks. But next year, you get a new race."

"AI is a bubble and it and my guess is it's going to become the greatest bubble of all time."

"I think they're going to cut rates. I think jobs are a bigger worry in the administration than the market has them. Right? This this idea that AI is hitting jobs I think is real. And so watch non-farm tomorrow. But as long as you have job weakness, you're going to have a very doubbish Fed. It doesn't matter what Kevin. I know the market perceives Kevin Morsh is going to be more hawkish. He's not. He wants rates down at two and a half%. That I think is a good story. Do they do QE? I think probably more likely with Hassid than with Worsh. I think the first chapter doesn't matter because it's just getting rates down. And I think what's also going to see is like they're going to allow banks, you already did this, to get more levered up. I said like if you take Fanny and Freddy and make them risk-free assets, it's trillions of dollars of liquidity uh or hundreds of billions of dollars liquid. I should get the I should know the number. What do banks hold on their balance sheet in mortgages? and if those become risk-f free and so you're already you know they did this thing with the SLR which is giving banks a lot more liquidity and so you're already jamming liquidity I think it'll start after the new year right because right now there's year end liquidity that's liquidity gets tight as people want to clean up their balance sheets just for the the snapshot and so I I do think we're going to be in a hyperlquid space"

"Yeah, I I think unless something dramatically changes, the Republicans are in big trouble in the midterms. Now, what does that mean? That means Trump's a political animal. He's going to do everything he can to juice that economy so he doesn't lose these midterms. And that's where I think the juice the juice theory comes in. But I think if you lose the midterms, that might end the cycle in the the equity market. Might not though because AI is powerful, but it's going to stop the effectiveness of this administration and they're going to maybe, believe it or not, even be more erratic because the the Democrats are going to try to impeach Trump and that whole horseshit back and forth starts again as we're going to an election cycle where Trump can't run."

"I mean, I think it's now been pushed back to the beginning of new year. I think there's some back and forth and someone in the White House doesn't like the um the uh conflict of interest kind of like that wording, but um how do you think the markets where do you think we would have been now in terms of the crypto space, Bitcoin? etc. If Camala had won. Yeah, it's hard to say. I I think you would have still passed legislation. You wouldn't have near the support at SEC. It's not just the legislation getting passed that was had getting some momentum. Paul Atkins is a radical. He's saying put it all on chain. And so the acceleration of digital assets as a as a force for good, I think would have been much slower under a democratic regime. We haven't seen the gains from the OC's change of heart or from the SEC's change heart or the CFTC's change hearts. That'll come in the next two years, right? And those gains are going to come from trade five participation. They're going to come from I mean, think about just even prediction markets. Right now, prediction markets are a hype, but pretty soon you're going to be built into everything. And that's all because of the CFTC ruling, right? And so I think the Trump impact on our business or the Trump administration impact on our business probably starts now and really ramps for three years."

"altcoins have sucked because they were designed to suck. People were so scared of giving any utility or any economic interest being deemed a security token that all the altcoins did generally speaking were represent you know it was like hey you get to be part of my energy they were community tokens so they were all a version of bitcoin with a very different stories like we were big investors in Celestia it's a very good piece of technology right the first modular blockchain smart guys built it look at the chart and it looks like so many others. Why? Because you don't get that there was no economics that came through the usage of that to the token holder. Again, why I keep going back to Hyperlquid, I think, as the as the ideal token, but hyperlid under the Genz administration would be a security token, right? And so getting these rules set in this new piece of legislation that allows people to create tokens that give some economic value to the user of the token as opposed to just, hey, it's another version of Bitcoin. will be the radical thing that happens and if it doesn't happen our industry is going to suck."

"I will be really disappointed if in 10 years crypto is still mostly Bitcoin, stable coins, and and a bunch of gambling tokens with 25 to 3 to1 leverage. Like, I really want it to work, and I think it's going to work better and faster overseas than in the US. If you think about what a crypto wallet is, it's it's a personal finance. It's a bank. You should have your interest, you know, your stable coins, your money market funds, your equities, your crypto, your opera tickets, all in a self-custody or or or if you have too much, some self-custodied and some custody somewhere else. That's revolutionary. And so I I I think it's a bigger idea for rest of world than it is for the developed world. But it's a big idea."