Housing Market "Softens" as Economic Fear Peaks (March 2025 Update)
Published: 2025-03-21
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2025-03-21
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Active real estate listings are predicted to increase to approximately 1.9 million during the summer of 2025.
"They'll probably go up over the summer and get somewhere close to 1.9 million."
Pending
National housing prices in 2025 are predicted to be modestly up or flat, potentially negative when adjusted for inflation.
"I do think prices will be maybe modestly up this year or somewhere near flat, right? Especially when you compare those things to inflation, they might be a little bit negative based on the data that we're seeing here today."
Pending
The national housing market will experience further softening due to rising inventory and stagnant demand.
"I do think that given inventory is rising and demand hasn't picked back up, at least in the last couple of months, we're going to see further softening."
Pending
The most likely economic scenario is a 'first in, first out' cycle for real estate, where it experiences the downturn and recovery before the broader economy.
"what I see emerging is potentially this first in first out situation. That is probably what I think is the most likely scenario as we're looking at it today."
Pending
National real estate prices in 2025 are predicted to be modestly up or flat, potentially negative when adjusted for inflation.
"I do think prices will be maybe modestly up this year or somewhere near flat, right? Especially when you compare those things to inflation, they might be a little bit negative based on the data that we're seeing here today."
Pending
If strong economic growth resumes and consumer confidence is regained, mortgage rates are likely to increase, and the housing market will continue its softening trend.
"maybe this is just a blip in economic data and there's actually going to be strong growth uh and people regain their confidence, in which case we'll probably see mortgage rates go back up a little bit... In which case, I think the housing market will continue on its current softening trajectory."
Pending
The most likely economic scenario is a 'first in, first out' cycle, where the broader economy will slow (following real estate's initial downturn), leading the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which will then stimulate real estate first and help lead the entire economy out of a recession.
"That is probably what I think is the most likely scenario as we're looking at it today. ... where real estate is the quote first in first out. ... the rest of the economy is starting to feel some of the pain of higher interest rates. ... the Federal Reserve wants to stimulate the economy. ... So they lower interest rates and that gives a stimulus first to real estate, right? ... And that can actually help lead the entire economy out of a recession."
Pending
The speaker is optimistic about finding real estate investment deals in the second half of 2025.
"I am maybe strangely optimistic about the potential for deal flow over the next couple of months and in the second half of this year."
Pending
If the economy experiences strong growth and consumer confidence returns, mortgage rates will likely increase again, though not necessarily to 7.25%.
"If...there's actually going to be strong growth...we'll probably see mortgage rates go back up a little bit. I don't know if they're going to go back up to 7.25, but they'll probably go back up again."
Pending
If mortgage rates increase again, the housing market will continue its current softening trend.
"In which case, I think the housing market will continue on its current softening trajectory."
Pending
Mortgage rates could remain at their current low levels (around 6.64% at the time of recording) or decrease further in the near future.
"rates might stay as low as they are now and they could go down a little bit more."
Pending