ilmscore | A Major Turn for the Housing Market (Buyers in CONTROL) | March 2025 Update

A Major Turn for the Housing Market (Buyers in CONTROL) | March 2025 Update

Published: 2025-03-28
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
Lumber and wood prices are predicted to experience a significant 'shock' and upward pressure over the next year (by March 2026), regardless of additional tariffs by Trump.
"even if it doesn't [Trump's potential tariffs on Canada] I think there is still a shock coming for lumber and for wood over the next year."
US Housing Market - Construction Costs (Lumber)
Pending
Lennar (LEN) is forecasting its Q1 gross margin (presumably for 2025) to be the lowest in a decade.
"lenar their forecast is that q1 will be their lowest gross margin in a decade"
LEN
Pending
Lumber duties from Canada are expected to double in 2025, leading to upward pressure on lumber prices for construction.
"the duties this year are expected to double and that's that's without anything else that Trump does so if Trump were to actually put tariffs on Canada that would put even more pressure upward on Lumber And even if he doesn't there's still going to be upward pressure on Lumber"
Construction Costs
Pending
Lumber and wood prices are expected to experience a 'shock' (implying increase) over the next year (by early 2026).
"I think there is still a shock coming for lumber and for wood over the next year"
Construction Costs
Pending
Shrinking builder margins, due to increased costs and sales incentives, could negatively impact single-family construction activity in markets like Texas and Florida.
"it's compressing the margins and so it could in some of these markets uh begin to have an impact on activity for single family"
Homebuilding Activity
Pending
Retail buyers in builder communities with high spec inventory, particularly in parts of Florida and Texas, will likely find deals and discounts from builders.
"in Builder communities where the builders are set on trying to maintain sales so they'll do adjustments to kind of Meet the market and in these places like in pockets of Florida and Texas where there's a lot of spec inventory and they got to move it it means that the retail buyer could see some deals from some of these builders in the markets where they have more spec inventory"
Housing Market Incentives
Pending
Sellers of existing homes in markets with high builder spec inventory and discounts (e.g., Florida, Texas) will face increased pressure and market softening as buyers shift to new construction.
"from a sellers perspective if you're in these markets where Builders have a lot of spec inventory that they're trying to sell at discounts it's going to create uh some pressure for you and greater Cooling and softening in your own Market as some of those buyers who would have otherwise looked at the resale and existing Market turned their attention to the new market"
Housing Market Conditions
Pending
If multifamily housing completions decrease significantly, it could lead to positive momentum in the rental market.
"I I think the biggest thing is if we see the completions for multi family roll over and in some markets roll over harder I think that will begin to put some positive momentum into the rental market and maybe some of these other effects that we're talking about here could have some impact"
Rental Market
Pending