If a recession occurs in the next 6 months (by end of 2025), with low inflation and falling interest rates (potentially accelerating with a change in Fed leadership by May 2026), the housing market bottom could occur in Winter 2025-2026, followed by growth in 2026 and 2027.
"I can also see a scenario where a recession comes in the next 6 months, but inflation stays low and rates come down. Then perhaps Trump replaces Powell in May of 2026 and rates go even lower. And then we start to see maybe the bottom is this winter and things really start growing in 26 and 27."