The Biggest Housing Market “Shift” In Decades | June 2025 Update

"I believe that the probability of a correction on a national level, basically prices falling modestly on a national level, is pretty high. I obviously can't say for certain, but I agree with recent updates on forecasts that we got from Red Fin and Zillow that they think that prices are going to fall 1 to 2% yearover-year by the end of this year. And I think the probability of that happening is pretty high."

"almost all markets are following this trend... a lot of markets, even the hottest ones might go from plus 7 to plus4. So all of them are sort of cooling off. There are very few markets that are actually heating up and where acceleration and price growth are appreciating and going up."

"Prices could go down, but there's not really a risk of a big true crash."

"if there's going to be an uptick from tariffs, that might not hit until August or September."

"I think the probability of the Fed cutting rates as of now, I'm recording this in mid June, is is probably going up... that could help rates a little bit, but I don't think that's going to give us some big benefit, some big leg down in terms of mortgage rates. It might be marginal."

"I just expect it to be flat or negative this year. It could be flat or negative next year. We really just don't have enough information right now."

"We're going to see this sort of split of the market where properties that need a lot of love and a lot of work, they're going to fall in price faster and further than properties that are well renovated."