ilmscore | The Correction Continues | 2026 Housing Market Prediction

The Correction Continues | 2026 Housing Market Prediction

Published: 2025-12-08
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
US mortgage rates are predicted to modestly decrease in 2026, but without significant movement.
"although I think they could come down a little on average next year, I don't think they're going to move that much."
Mortgage Rates (US)
Pending
Real wage growth in the US is predicted to slow in 2026 and not significantly impact housing affordability.
"I hope that will stay up, but I think it's going to slow in the next year... So although wage growth does really matter, it's probably not a big factor in 26."
Real Wage Growth (US)
Pending
US home prices (nominal) in 2026 are predicted to see year-over-year growth between -4% and +2%, with the speaker leaning towards -1% to -2%.
"home prices in 2026 are going to be between negative -4% and positive2%. ... I'd say negative 1gative -2% year-over-year growth."
Home Prices (US)
Pending
Real (inflation-adjusted) US home prices are confidently predicted to decline in 2026.
"every forecast I see believes that compared to inflation home prices are going to go down... I feel much more confident that real prices will be down in 2026."
Home Prices (US, Real)
Pending
Quantitative easing in the US is predicted to potentially begin after May 2026, following the end of Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair.
"I think the earliest it will probably happen is in May because President Trump... can't do that until Jerome Powell's term is up in May of 2026."
Quantitative Easing (US)
Pending
If quantitative easing occurs, US home prices (nominal) are predicted to increase by 2% to 6%, with a potential for up to 7% growth if mortgage rates drop to the low 5s or 4s.
"in that case I think we see prices go up somewhere maybe between two and 6% maybe up to seven if they really get rates down into the fives maybe up to 7% if they get mortgage rates down in the fours but that seems unlikely"
Home Prices (US)
Pending
In a downside scenario with persistent high inflation and rising mortgage rates, US home prices (nominal) are predicted to decline by 5% to 10% in 2026.
"If inflation continues to creep up and mortgage rates go back up, I think there is more downside... I think even in this scenario, maybe prices drop 5 to 10%."
Home Prices (US)
Pending
There is estimated to be approximately a 10% chance of a 5% to 7% decline in US home prices in 2026.
"the chance that we see you know 5% decline 7% declines low but I'd say it's maybe a 10% chance"
Home Prices (US)
Pending