Published: 2024-11-03
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Topic
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Mario Draghi predicts the European Union will face 'slow agony' and its 'downward slide' in real disposable income per capita will continue if no changes are made.
"The European Union today faces 'an existential challenge' and if it doesn't change, it will be condemned to 'a slow agony.' He wrote that 'Real disposable income per capita has grown almost twice as much in the United States as in Europe since 2000,' and, as things stand, there's no reason for this downward slide to stop."
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Mario Draghi predicts the European Union will face a 'slow agony' and a continued downward slide in real disposable income per capita relative to the US unless significant changes occur.
"The European Union today faces 'an existential challenge' and if it doesn't change, it will be condemned to 'a slow agony.' He wrote that 'Real disposable income per capita has grown almost twice as much in the United States as in Europe since 2000,' and, as things stand, there's no reason for this downward slide to stop."
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Bloomberg predicts that Germany's era as an industrial superpower is nearing its end.
"Bloomberg writes that it’s days as an industrial superpower might be coming to an end."
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Bloomberg predicts that Germany's era as an industrial superpower may be nearing its end.
"Bloomberg writes that it’s days as an industrial superpower might be coming to an end."
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The chief economist of Berenberg predicts that 2-3% of Germany's energy-intensive industrial companies will likely relocate abroad due to persistently high energy prices.
"The chief economist of Berenberg, a private bank told the economist last year that, with energy prices likely to stay high for a while, 2-3% of Germany’s industrial companies that use energy-intensive processes will likely relocate abroad."
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The author predicts that Europe's energy problem will require solutions in the coming years.
"energy is a big problem that will need to be solved in the coming years."
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Regardless of the US election outcome, protectionism, tariffs, and subsidies are expected to be key components of future US trade policy.
"No matter who wins in the upcoming US election – trade can be expected be a huge political issue going forward in the United States and while the Democrats and Republicans may offer different solutions, protectionism, tariffs and subsidies do appear to be in the cards."
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The chief economist of Berenberg predicts that 2-3% of Germany’s energy-intensive industrial companies will likely relocate abroad if energy prices remain high.
"with energy prices likely to stay high for a while, 2-3% of Germany’s industrial companies that use energy-intensive processes will likely relocate abroad."
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Mario Draghi predicts that by 2040, Europe's aging workforce will lead to a loss of 2 million working people per year, preventing Europe from financing its social model and forcing a scaling back of ambitions without economic growth.
"He says that due to the ageing European workforce by 2040 the population will start to lose 2 million working people per year, which will mask the effects of lower growth. But without growth Europe will not be able to finance its social model and will have to scale back some, if not all, of its ambitions."
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Thomas Palley argues for a future shift in most economies towards domestic demand-led growth and more balanced trade, moving away from the export-led model.
"going forward there needs to be a shift – in most economies - toward domestic demand–led growth while only aiming to export enough to pay for imported goods that are not produced domestically. Essentially a move towards more balanced trade."
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The author predicts that trade will remain a major political issue in the US, with protectionism, tariffs, and subsidies likely policies regardless of election outcomes.
"No matter who wins in the upcoming US election – trade can be expected be a huge political issue going forward in the United States and while the Democrats and Republicans may offer different solutions, protectionism, tariffs and subsidies do appear to be in the cards."
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An IMF blog post argues that long-term concerns about the future of German industry are exaggerated.
"They argue that concerns for the longer-term future of German industry are exaggerated."
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An IMF blog post identifies a projected decline in Germany's working-age population, worse than that expected in Japan, the EU, or the UK, as a major problem.
"They say that the biggest problems for Germany are a projected decline in Germanys working age population – which this chart shows is much worse than is expected in Japan the rest of the EU and the UK."
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Mario Draghi predicts that by 2040, Europe's aging workforce will lead to a loss of 2 million working people per year, jeopardizing the financing of its social model and necessitating scaled-back ambitions without economic growth.
"due to the ageing European workforce by 2040 the population will start to lose 2 million working people per year, which will mask the effects of lower growth. But without growth Europe will not be able to finance its social model and will have to scale back some, if not all, of its ambitions."
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Nico Palesch of Oxford Economics predicts that while some European industries will decline, this will be offset by the growth of others.
"He says that some industries can be expected to decline, but this decline will be offset by the rise of other industries."
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The IMF predicts that long-term concerns regarding the future of German industry are exaggerated.
"They argue that concerns for the longer-term future of German industry are exaggerated."
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Nico Palesch predicts that Europe's aging workforce will incentivize greater factory automation.
"Europe’s ageing workforce according to Palesch – puts in place an incentive for greater factory automation"
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Nico Palesch of Oxford Economics predicts that the decline in some European industries will be offset by the growth of others.
"some industries can be expected to decline, but this decline will be offset by the rise of other industries."
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Nico Palesch identifies industries such as textiles, clothing, paper manufacturing, refining, plastics, metals, and chemicals as being at risk in Europe.
"Certain industries he says are at risk like textiles and clothing, paper manufacturing, refining, plastics, metals and chemicals."
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The author suggests that the export-driven growth model is obsolete, requiring global economies to restructure towards domestic demand-led growth and more balanced trade.
"the export driven growth model may have reached the end of the road and economies may need to restructure towards domestic demand–led growth aiming to balance imports and exports such that enough is exported to pay for goods that are not produced domestically."
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The green transition and high energy prices in Europe will cause significant struggles for energy-intensive industries like steel, cement, and petrochemicals.
"The green push in Europe combined with high energy prices means that energy intensive industries like reducing iron ore to make steel, heating limestone to produce cement and using steam to crack hydrocarbons into their component molecules will be a struggle."
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The author refutes pessimistic outlooks, predicting that Europe will not become economically stagnant or collapse due to its green energy policies.
"Unlike some of the critics, I don’t expect the continent to turn into the worlds museum or become some sort of green energy version of Easter Island where they keep buying solar panels from China until the whole economy grinds to a halt."
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Shutting down energy-intensive industries in Europe and importing their products will result in the displacement of pollution to other global regions where production methods are often dirtier.
"shutting down those industries in Europe and importing steel cement and petrochemicals just means that the pollution occurs in other parts of the world – where these processes are often done in a dirtier manner than they are done in Europe."
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The export-driven growth model is likely at its end, necessitating a global restructuring towards domestic demand-led growth and balanced trade, which could disproportionately impact emerging markets that historically relied on US demand.
"the export driven growth model may have reached the end of the road and economies may need to restructure towards domestic demand–led growth aiming to balance imports and exports such that enough is exported to pay for goods that are not produced domestically. This might impact emerging markets much more than Europe as they may not be able to rely on the United States to absorb their excess production in the way they could in the past."
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