Published: 2024-12-08
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Trump is unlikely to impose new tariffs on his inauguration day without first declaring a national state of emergency.
"I think it’s unlikely that he will do it on inauguration day as he has said - as that would likely require him to declare a national state of emergency"
Pending
Trump is unlikely to apply tariffs to oil and gas imports from Canada and Mexico due to potential inflationary impact.
"Now, if tariffs were applied to Canada and Mexico and applied to things like oil and gas, it could be quite inflationary which is the opposite of what Trump promised on the campaign trail, so I don’t think that is awfully likely."
Pending
Trump is predicted to use the USMCA review in 2026 as a bargaining tool to negotiate with Canada and Mexico on issues such as immigration.
"The USMCA trade agreement which replaced NAFTA in 2020 is up for a scheduled review in 2026 – and it seems extremely likely that Trump will use that deal as a bargaining chip to negotiate with Canada and Mexico over things he cares about like immigration."
Pending
Unilateral tariffs imposed by the US solely on Chinese imports are predicted to be ineffective at rebalancing global trade, instead redirecting trade imbalances to other countries.
"if Trump just puts tariffs on Chinese imports. The reason this wouldn’t work is that if the United States refused to buy Chinese goods – but continued to buy from other countries – this would just push the problem to another trade partner. Unable to sell EV’s in the United States – China would ship them to Europe – undercutting European EV’s. European manufacturers, unable to compete in their own markets, would ship European EV’s to the United States – and the overall problem would be the same."
Pending
If China maintains its current economic policies of low consumption and high exports, the global trade imbalance, including China's surplus and the US deficit, will persist regardless of targeted US tariffs on China.
"If China continued to keep consumption low while exporting, Chinese savings would continue to be exported to the United States. The Chinese trade surplus would remain as big as before – even if it fell against the United States and the US trade deficit would continue to grow too."
Pending
Tariffs applied by the US on a country-by-country basis are predicted to be ineffective for rebalancing trade; universal application across all trade partners would be required for them to work.
"tariffs applied on a country-by-country basis are unlikely to have any notable effect, they would really need to be applied equally to all trade partners in order to work"
Pending
Should the US adopt aggressive trade protectionist policies, other nations will likely be forced to implement similar measures, potentially leading to a global trade war.
"If China is already an aggressive trade partner, and the US joined them, every other country would be forced to follow suit as otherwise they would be paying the cost."
Pending
The author believes that new US tariffs will not trigger an economic catastrophe comparable to the Great Depression.
"I don’t believe that new tariffs would lead to that scale of economic catastrophe."
Pending
The author considers Trump's proposal to replace US income taxes entirely with import tariffs to be unrealistic and economically unworkable.
"I think this is mostly bluster – and shouldn’t be taken too seriously... Replacing income taxes with tariffs just couldn’t work."
Pending
The author doubts that the current stockpiling of electronic components by US tech companies will be sufficient to mitigate the impact of potential new tariffs for an extended period.
"I doubt that they could import enough components to get them through years of potential tariffs."
Pending
In his second term, Trump is expected to increase trade negotiations and continue to view stock market performance as a key measure of his success.
"he will amp up trade negotiations – while likely keeping an eye on the stock market as a measure of his success."
Pending