Published: 2025-02-08
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Trump is predicted to impose further tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China.
"It would be a mistake to assume that this is the last these countries have seen of his tariff hikes."
Pending
Trump is predicted to expand tariffs to include the EU and other Asian economies, especially those serving as supply chain points or offshore production for China.
"Trump ... is very likely to come back for more and is also likely to broaden his targets to include the EU and other Asian economies, in particular those that he views as supply chain stop-offs and offshore production platforms for China."
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to overlook one-off price increases caused by tariffs, unless these tariffs trigger an economic slowdown necessitating intervention.
"Tariffs being imposed would push up the prices of goods – in the same way that a sales tax increase would – but it would be a one-off price hike that the Federal Reserve would likely ignore – except if it caused an economic slow down that they decided requires intervention."
Pending
China's primary retaliation against US tariffs is predicted to involve pressuring major American companies, such as Apple and Tesla, that depend on China.
"Chinas main form of retaliation will be to put pressure on big American businesses who rely on them like Apple or Tesla."
Pending
Trump's new tariffs will be less targeted and applied less gradually than in his first term, leading more Americans to feel the impact, specifically affecting iPhones and computers without exception.
"This time around, more Americans will feel the impact. ... This time there's no exception for Apple, so iPhones and computers will be hit."
Pending
The muted market response to Trump's tariff announcements is predicted to encourage him to make more extreme policy announcements in the future.
"The problem with this lack of reaction – is that it possibly gives Trump the green light for more extreme announcements in the future."
Pending
Tariffs against China are predicted to be treated as a persistent tax, rather than a negotiation tool, and could be increased over time.
"the tariffs are just being applied as a tax – which could be cranked up over time."
Pending
If Trump's trade policy continues with unpredictable threats and cancellations over the next four years, businesses will adopt a 'wait and see' approach, halting expansion plans, which will negatively impact the overall economy.
"If the next four years are to be like the last few weeks where tariffs are threatened – ordered and then quickly cancelled – it creates an awful lot of uncertainty for businesses. If a company can’t decide where to build factories or who to sell to or buy from – they start to take a “wait and see” approach to business planning – this may be a wise business decision – but it would be very bad for the overall economy if every business were to halt expansion plans because of trade uncertainty."
Pending
The US is predicted to reduce imports from China, leading to less access to cheap goods. China, in turn, will struggle to find an alternative trade partner for its substantial excess production, as no other economy can absorb it.
"While the US will be able to reduce its imports from China – which will mean having less access to cheap goods – China won’t be able to find a substitute for the United States in trade – simply because no other economy (or group of economies) would be able to absorb the trillion dollars of excess production China is exporting per year."
Pending
Aggressive US trade pressure is predicted to compel China to rebalance its economy by increasing workers' wages to boost domestic consumption, a challenging adjustment for both nations.
"If the United States pushes hard – China would be forced to balance its economy and raise workers’ wages so that they can consume more of the goods being produced in the country. This would be a very difficult adjustment for both the United States and China."
Pending