ilmscore | Beyond Stocks: The Private Credit Boom Shaping India’s Future | CA Rachana Ranade

Predictions from this Video

Total: 11
Correct: 7
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 3
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
A new asset class of high-yield bonds is being proposed to offer double-digit post-tax and post-inflation returns.
"We want to create a separate asset class which is high yield bonds. Uh wherein you will get returns in double digits. So these are real returns post tax and post inflation."
High-yield bonds
Pending
The Indian debt market is significantly underdeveloped compared to its equity market, despite bonds being a fundamental financial instrument.
"So, you know, I also find it very interesting uh when I came into the bond industry. Even I was very surprised that why this market is not very developed. Correct. Because uh debentures and equity these are two basic instruments. Correct. Even mutual fund is a derivative product. But these are two basic instruments. Absolutely. One instrument has developed a lot. Correct. You have one of the highest valued market in the world, equity market in the world. Whereas your debt market is not really developed."
Indian Bond Market Development
Correct
The Indian corporate bond market is approximately one-eighth the size of its equity market, indicating significant room for growth.
"And if you'll see what is the size of uh equity market in India, it should be somewhere around 400 plus lakh crores, 425 to 450 lakh crores. And the size of corporate bond market in India is hardly 55 lakh crores."
Indian Corporate Bond Market Size
Correct
The Indian corporate bond industry is currently at a similar developmental stage as the mutual fund industry was 25-30 years ago and is experiencing massive growth, supported by regulatory initiatives.
"and I would say you know uh mutual fund industry what it was 30 years ago or 25 years ago at the same junction we have corporate bond industry in India right now it's growing at a massive space and the regulators are also giving a lot of help to develop this"
Growth of Indian Corporate Bond Market
Correct
The Indian capital debt market is currently restricted, preventing smaller companies from accessing it due to limitations in credit ratings.
"So right now the doors of capital bond market or capital debt market are restricted for smaller players. They don't have access to it."
Bond Market Access for Retail Investors
Correct
There is a strategic shift occurring in the bond market from a reliance on credit ratings to a model of credit underwriting, where entities invest in and guarantee bonds, demonstrating 'skin in the game'.
"We are trying to change it change it into credit underwritten industry. Uh so for example whatever bonds we will try to sell we will first invest into them. We will underwrite it. We will structure it. We will monitor it and then we will uh recover if required. Skin in the game."
Shift from Credit Rating to Credit Underwriting
Correct
The development of a robust bond market is presented as a critical, potentially sole, solution for the Indian economy's financial needs.
"No, definitely bond market I'll say it's the only solution for Indian economy. I'll go to that extent. I'll explain my logic for that."
Bond Market as a Solution for Indian Economy
Pending
Direct investment through bonds into businesses stimulates economic activity by generating employment, boosting GDP through production, and contributing to societal welfare via tax revenue.
"So when your money as an investor is directly invested into a business so what happens is employment gets generated. Uh there is production which adds to the GDP. You pay taxes. Those taxes are used for the welfare of the society. So the entire economic cycle starts when you make an investment by way of bonds because the money is directly flowing into businesses."
Economic Impact of Bond Market
Correct
There's a strong positive outlook on capital that directly flows into businesses, such as through IPOs with fresh issues (contrasting with OFS), as this fuels growth in production, revenue, profits, and employment.
"So I am really you know very uh bullish when money goes directly into businesses either it's way of IPO. Correct. Correct. Because even if I'm talking about uh stock market and primary markets we have seen a lot of IPOs in the recent past where it's more of an OFS rather than a fresh issue. So even if it's an OFS no money is actually going down in the company where maybe the production capacities may increase production will increase topline will increase profits will increase more employment generation"
Bond Market for Business Growth
Pending
In the event of a business failure, both equity and debt investors face the risk of losing their money.
"So absolutely if the business fails uh if you're equity investor or a debt investor correct your money will also get lost if the business fails."
Bond Investment Risk
Pending
In bankruptcy scenarios, debt holders have priority over equity holders in recovering their funds, offering a slight layer of protection.
"But the only difference is debt holders will get their money before the equity holders. Correct? So at least you know you're slightly covered over there."
Debt Holder Priority in Bankruptcy
Correct
Any investment return exceeding the risk-free rate (estimated at 6-7% from government treasury bills) indicates an increasing level of associated risk.
"Anything which is above risk-free rate of return risk-free rate of return is what you are earning on government treasury bills. Correct. As you move away from that return which should be somewhere around 6 7%. Correct. Anything that you move away from that, irrespective of the instrument anything above six or 7%. Huh? Yes. Anything that you have above you're going above that the risk is increasing."
Risk-Free Rate of Return Benchmark
Incorrect