Is Adani Group The Reason Behind The Market Fall? | CA Rachana Ranade
Published: 2023-01-31
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-01-31
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
As of January 31, 2023, S&P 500 was down 16.3%, Chinese markets down 32%, Russian markets down 48%, and Indian markets down 6.6% from their respective peaks.
"First and foremost if I were to compare it with US markets performance S&P 500 markets performance, this market is down by almost 16.3 percent from its peak if I were to compare it with Chinese markets Chinese markets are almost 32 percent from the recent peak. Russian markets are down almost 48 percent from its peak and Indian markets are barely 6.6 percent down from its peak."
Pending
Chinese markets are predicted to be more attractive than Indian markets due to their lower P multiple (10x-12x) compared to India's (20x).
"Indian market currently is trading at a 20x ka P multiple whereas the Chinese markets are available only at a P multiple of 10x to 12x. This could be the reason why I feel Chinese markets seem to be more attractive right now as compared to the Indian markets"
Pending
Foreign Institutional Investors (FPIs) pulled out approximately 15,000 crores from Indian markets by January 20th and a total of 31,000 crores by January 31st.
"till roughly 20th January FBIS had pulled over 15,000 crores from Indian markets and if I check the latest date on money control as on date that is as on 31st January FPIS or basically foreign institutional investors have pulled out almost 31,000 crores from Indian markets"
Pending
In the first nine trading days of January 2023, foreign investors bought $9.5 billion USD (64 billion yuan) worth of stocks in the Chinese market, compared to $90 billion yuan in the entire year 2022.
"in the first nine trading days of this new year that is still uh from from this January I'm talking about 2023 first nine trading sessions they have bought foreign investors have bought almost 64 billion yuan that is 9.5 billion US dollars in the Chinese market and just for comparison if you are not sure that whether this 90 64 billion yuan is this a big number or not let me tell you that in the entire year 2022 they bought stocks worth 90 billion yuan"
Pending
As of January 31st, out of 174 Nifty 500 companies that declared results, only 58 reported EBITDA margin growth.
"out of 174 companies which have declared their results so far as I shoot the video today on 31st almost 58 companies could report EBITDA margin growth"
Pending
From the Nifty 50 companies that declared results, only 12 reported year-on-year EBITDA margin growth.
"from the nifty 50 category only 12 companies could report an EBITDA margin growth on a year-on-year basis"
Pending
There is a fear that 2023 could be a year of recession, indicated by yield curve inversion.
"and if this be so we are still in the fear that yes 2023 could be a year where we may have to face recession."
Pending
After a Credit Suisse report around August 22nd, Adani stocks saw a 33.8% increase, while Nifty returns were only 1.5% in the same period.
"release somewhere around 22nd August or so right from that day till the a high that Adani saw it was a 33.8 percent up move and if I were to compare the Nifty returns in the same time frame Nifty had moved upwards barely by 1.5 percent"
Pending
Adani stocks corrected by approximately 20% in the single week that the Hindenburg report was released.
"in fact the week where this Hindenburg report came up single week this talk is corrected by almost 20 percent"
Pending
Even if the Adani issue is resolved, the market is not expected to immediately surge to 22,000 due to ongoing concerns about India's overvaluation, emerging market comparisons, yield inversion, and other factors.
"assuming hypothetically this issue gets resolved okay do you think market will zoom up straight to 22,000? I don't feel so why because whatever points are discussed right now as to India's Market being overvalued as compared to other Emerging Markets like China, Russia, Ukraine, yield inversion and all other two three important points that are discussed in these videos this these points still loom fear over the market"
Pending
The impact of an upcoming budget event on the market fall is uncertain, and only time will tell if it's a contributing factor or if other unknown news is at play.
"I've not covered that in today's video is it something that the market knows but people like you and me we don't know about it so only time will tell whether this fall is because of whatever reasons we discussed or is it because of some other news that we don't know?"
Pending