Nifty to pause? | CA Rachana Ranade

"they have announced a buyback at 816 rupees current market price is around what 700 705. but from the current market price also the announced buyback is almost 15 percent higher so it's a good one"

"Aisha Motors is down there almost 11 percent in the last three days fundamentally strong stock no doubt about that but investors fear that hero motocorp and Bajaj Auto may eat up into the company's mood motor which which bike Royal Enfield right but currently Hero has partnered with Harley Davidson Bajaj Auto has partnered with Triumph for uh category of bikes which directly compete with Royal Enfield and that is what has not been I mean that has been that has been kind of a negative impact for the stock and reason that might be one of the reasons why the stock saw a pretty big correction almost 11 percent as I mentioned in the last three days"

"NSE BSC buyback I already told anyways 15 percent upwards as compared to current market price why not why not"

"operating profit margin and profit looks great to me again as I always say we we don't talk about tips it's all about yes even I have analyzed so dhanji has said okay I've analyzed and based on what so he has based it on two parameters one is OPM and one is profit so now that you have done at least some analysis yes I'll be more than happy to share some more analysis right so sharing my screen cycling sciences and Technology okay so here you can see Roc 44 Roe 33 I always say more than 15 at least no place percentage"

"profit growth is also not bad at 30 percent sales growth is at 36 percent not bad at all good one um p is a shared higher 49.5 but see have a look at this right industry p is around 50 and stock these around sorry industry p is around 25 stock fees around 50 so a little bit expensive right so be careful on that"

"if I were to check the quarterly results why or why there is it's a growth a small dip in qoq yoy operating profit is good as you rightly mentioned operating profit margin fantastic has grown quite a bit as compared to the previous or quarters if it is able to hit these numbers 50 52 percent it'll be amazing"

"vedanta I personally again personal choice but I don't like it for the whole you know price went up delisting of our failed after that it goes up to such an extent so that is the reason why I don't like it so you can say average"

"HDFC Bank ideally should see some good traction after the merger uh if you are again patient I think this can be uh you know fundamentally HDC Bank there is no problem uh and with the with the merger I think it can be again a good one for for the long term as well so even I'm it's that in my watch list as well"

"excited Industries oh I'll share my screen I'm on a monthly chart right now just wanted a better view on that but here you can see uh it was more like a double bottom formation that has happened here itself at the neckline and if that be so uh we typically calculate the double bottom like this one it's like a w right and based on this we clone it we keep it at the neckline and it's almost there 260. so fresh entry at this level can be tricky can be really tricky 260 to 70 Maybe"

"and second one is Mother sinsumi this more of sideways nothing special here uh not I was just checking if it's like an app like but not really there has been a big rally but now it's in a sideways Trend right so that's what I can see for the mother sansumi chart as well more of sideways"

"so if you see here one point you can say that this is a double top I can also look it from this angle let us say this is a w formation pattern and tried a little bit more properly so that I connect this as well I can say this is like a double bottom wow there is no such pattern but if I want to make one now this is like a cup which has two sections and then it also has one handle to it so it's like a double bottom plus one handle to it okay but see anyways in technical analysis it's not going to be like exact every single time right but if this were to be so then we also have to check from as for the double bottom formation pattern there could also be this thing coming up but still one zero eight six only not much steam left and here you can see in the monthly candle also this is like a hanging man I don't know this is called as a shooting star typical example of a shooting star"

"entire specialty chemical space is having a tough time right now and that is the reason why I don't expect something action to happen see we had we had discussed about this I'm just going to quickly remove the Fibonacci level to make it a little bit better I'll also remove this one two now the chart is a little bit bigger at least high low lower high lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low now this is so even if I take this this is the first time when it broke the downtrend per se okay so this is an important one there was a kind of a very smaller plug and the target has also been achieved uh but right now I can say slowly and steadily it is starting to pick up it has clearly come outside the downtrend pivot is around 2652 it may consolidate your but"

"in an uptrend super uptrend I've never tracked this stock bigger print his is 2007. this is 2007. well this is an example of a rounding bottom okay today I mentioned rounding bottom I'll just good you give but the target has been achieved already let me tell you what is the rounding bottom formation pattern 2008 the high was at 257 and then it went down and down and down and down for so it's a long time from 2007 this has been taken out in 2022. 2022 you can see her first time it has been taken out direct next month 38 percent rounding bottom minimum Target minimum Target is this and if it's a strong rounding bottom it does happen that it can also go up to x 3X also is what we have seen in the Past Times rounding bottom One X target has been met if it goes 2x based on the rounding bottom formation it will be around 723 if it goes 3x see this is a very strong round rounding bottom formation pot pattern 3x it could go around these levels 950 ISS level uh again please please please I always say don't don't invest only based on technicals do your fundamental analysis and then take your own decision right"

"jubilant footwork right now is is at a very big resistance 500 is the resistance level yeah"

"as per pivot levels it could go to 19400 is what we had discussed the other day and this one week has been crazy yes it hit 19400 very happy"

"R2 level is what by the way today R1 has also been crossed as per pivot levels what is R2 R2 is at 19000 almost 700 but this is on my daily time frame okay Okay now that R1 has also been crossed before we talk about our two time frame on a daily basis I think we should first check about the weekly pivot as well so now if we see here weekly pivot oh the pivot is at though 17 400 but R1 as per the weekly pivot is at nineteen thousand six hundred okay"

"so again going back weekly payment is what 19600 daily pivot is is at what nineteen thousand seven hundred dollars so I feel that somewhere markets the momentum at which the speed at which Market has gone up that may dry down a little bit"

"because as I mentioned today we are all already at 19 500. I think 100 200 points Rally from here and there 100 points based on what 100 points based on a weekly pivot that's what I showed you right now based on weekly pivot it is nineteen thousand six hundred that's just 100 points away and even if I'm talking about daily pivot level it is ninety thousand seven hundred dollars so just maybe 100 200 points here and there during the entire week I feel that should be more than enough"

"now let us understand momentum is indicated by what RSI have a look at the RSI level RSI is at 78 already now we have seen moments in the past where yes very few times anyways it has gone above 70 otherwise three after seventy it has dipped quite a bit times but even these levels see have a look at this 70 has been more than enough majority of the times there are a few Peaks as well around 80 one or two peaks around 83 85 levels but understand anything around 80 is already pretty high on momentum"

"so I feel that maybe there is a great chance that you know markets may slow down on the pace and that is why we are saying maybe there may be a pause here"

"now we also have to understand that there is one more important indicator which is called as the super Trend indicator so I'm just going to put that on as well this shows what is the trend in which the market is right now a red super Trend indicator shows that it's a bearish trend a green shows that it is a bullish Trend"

"so basically anyone who enrolls for any of our stock market courses uh well it is a pre-recorded course and that is the reason why I will not be able to give answers to your query whenever you are watching the lecture you may be watching the lecture because people enroll from all parts of the world I have so many Learners from beat USA UK Dubai and whatnot right so if they are watching in the morning in USA of course I'm not going to answer it's not a live batch it's a pre-recorded batch on our website and on our Android app IOS app as well so what we do is we have a WhatsApp number and my research team members reply to the WhatsApp queries right"

"so trailing stop loss means what we know that markets may see some pause may see some sort of reversal we are not saying downtrend will start but somewhere the market may see some small dip or what is the level at which we should be really aware we should be alert acha so here if you can see this green is at nineteen thousand the lower part of the green is at 19 000. even if you see pivot is at 18951 again rounding off to nineteen thousand third thing 19 000 again a very big psychological support unless and until Market is above 19 000 I don't think there is any need to worry"

"so you should know that even if it Market goes down by 100 200 300 points also should available oh my God 200 300 points lost if markets have rallied from this point even if I take this bottom most point till here markets have rallied to such a great extent from 17 000 over 16 900 to 19400 what this is almost almost 2500 points and from here if you are seeing even 200 300 points quick fall that should be absolutely all right in fact I am saying that even if it's a 500 points fall so still the trend still the super Trend remains positive"

"so I hope you have understood that you should not really worry even if the market sees some sort of pause some sort of cool off little bit cool off that doesn't mean that the trend I mean that doesn't mean that everything is over now not at all okay"

"if that be so if I place it here then in that case as per technical analysis twenty thousand twenty one thousand is what we had discussed in the previous live stream"

"now the Q q1 results will start kicking in and analyzing them will also be fun so based on all these things I think it'll be fun to watch how the entire Market plays from here so I think uh it's going to be really really interesting"

"believe it or not India was the third highest recipient of FDI in the world in 2022 of course 2023 data is not yet out right it's a full year data that is published so 2022 total FDI that any country received India was the third highest first or the highest topmost being U.S second being UK and third one is Hindustan India is the third highest recipient of MDI FDI includes Rose 10 and the amount is 44.7 billion uh the amount was 44.7 billion dollars in 2021 and in 2022 the amount Rose to 49.3 billion dollars"

"this time the PMI Services PMI basically has declined to 58.5 in June the expectation was around 60.2 uh and the number in May was 61.2"

"still anything above 50 means expansion can I say slow expansion yes I can say slow expansion but anything below 50 will suggest contraction we are still above 50 it is expansion but it is slow expansion right"

"UK oil has seen a good support at this level support around 72 dollars and you can see that from here it was just moving in a Zone right now what has happened is last so this is last witness day right from witness day to where it ended today it's almost a 4.16 percent karali that is a big one right in one week it is it is going up by almost four percent"

"higher so basically increase in crude oil prices is not going to be good sign our outflows are going to be higher uh stocks where crude oil is going to be considered as a raw material typical examples can be paint stocks could be tired stocks where major raw material is cruel it's not going to be good for them"

"there there are production cuts by Saudi and OPEC uh so again what is OPEC and all that again everything describe and explained in the YouTube video that I was referring to please watch that so if there is a production cut normal economics right supplies demand is high Supply will be cut in that case prices may increase"

"as per option chain analysis also what I can see is that market May remain a little bit range bound now for a week or so unless until some news comes up either on the positive side or negative uh side uh which which comes up as a surprise then only it may show some different things otherwise maybe range bound maybe hit pause will be a thing"

"see the woman it's a nifty 50 mutual fund it's like an index index fund is going to do good ideally this is also is going to be doing good but if the tracking error is very high then it might not give the same results that is why the tracking error has to be checked before taking any decision and expense ratio also that has to be checked that should be at a lower end right"

"yearly as well all-time high uh OPM again as I mentioned a little bit higher would be great profit before tax is also at an all-time high uh compounded profit growth is great as I mentioned component sales growth is good stock far I mean serial manifesting critical as well this is specialty chemical pharmaceutical intermediates apis basically so this sector has not performed quite well in the last few what does I can say"

"so that is the reason why I'll also check the chart uh so you can see from here it has my God from 19 000 sorry 1955 1955 it has gone down to almost 1400 levels but I don't see the fundamentals look pretty good let's also check about the investors see in fact if I had June 21 it was 0 June 22 4 and even marches around that number itself All in all uh primarily based on fundamental analysis don't see any specific pain uh but the pain is at an industry level uh industry level uh you know Specialty Chemicals have not performed that great so one may have to stay a little bit more patient okay but fundamentals as I mentioned the financials look good"

"I still am uh bullish on the specialty chemical sector but it is really testing the patient's no doubts on that we will have to uh have patience for that"

"timing it is very difficult but I feel it's high time now I have also discussed this uh that you know everything is now known if we know about that if we know about the U.S recession we know about the UK recession problem was that for a company like Infosys majority of their revenue work was coming from uh from the U.S uh from from United States of America right and in that also a major chunk was coming from the banking sector so you can imagine that Infosys has done a software for other bank okay okay and you know that the banking sector was not that great in us so there is no news which is not known right now everything has been factored in so I don't think there has to be a long wait now even I'm I'm looking at it stocks but I don't think that has to be a long bit three to six months is what I believe not more than that reason everything what was bad ideally I think has been factored in"