Israel war and impact on Indian markets | CA Rachana Ranade

"gold prices may start to bottom out. Now what could be the reason for this? Typically whenever war like situations occur all the economies try to park their money in comparatively safer assets and gold is a classic example of a safe asset this could lead lead to a increase in demand for gold and that is the reason why there are great chances that gold could bottom out from here and may see a little bit up move."

"what would happen in the short term as far as short term is concerned what would happen as I mentioned because of inflationary trends that can kick in because of inflation typically bond yields rise and if if bond yields rise it is not at all good for the Indian stock market or for any stock market for that matter because then investors try to pull out the money from stock market and park the money in comparatively safer asset classes like bonds so in the short term there is a possibility that bond yields may spike up"

"but what about medium-term to long-term? unfortunately if the war situation continues then what happens to the major manufacturers? Let's try and visualize now if I were a manufacturer and if the war situation continues then I would want to safeguard my money I would want to lower down my production would want to cut our delay or postpone the expansionary plans so what would happen? My company may not flourish similar logic will apply to all other manufacturers to all other companies and because of which now what would happen is that overall production will be cut overall demand will also be lowered and this may lead the economies into a recessionary trend. Now if countries start going into a recessionary trend then what do the governments have to do to take the economy out of the recessionary trend they have to lower down the overall interest rates, if interest rates are lowered then ideally the bond yields also start cooling off and that is the reason why I'll sum up the whole discussion in the short term yes there are chances that bond yields may spike but in the medium- term to long-term ideally the bond yields should cool off."

"as far as the chemical sector is concerned if you have seen if you have seen the market today then majority of the chemical related stocks were down by almost 1% reason is very simple for all chemical stocks major I mean for majority of them I can say the major raw material is crude oil and natural gas also. Now if again because of the war there is a there's a shortage in the supply of crude and natural gas then obviously for them it is going to be like raw materials will become more expensive and that is the reason why it can impact their EBITDA margins and ultimately their profit margins, so it may have a negative impact on the overall chemical sector."

"Second one if you have tracked the oil and natural gas sector today almost a lot of stocks in this space were up by almost 3 to 4% obviously logic and reason is the same"

"if I were to talk about the short term yes there may be a negative impact on the overall market is what I feel uh if the war especially continues then yes we may see 19,000 levels coming in"

"if things start to get resolved then in the medium term to long term I'm sure everyone knows my view I am always bullish on the stock market."